Pakistan's FY27 budget was characterized by a statement deemed the 'most honest sentence,' which originated not from the finance minister, but from the masthead of _Business Recorder_. This specific observation, highlighted by the article, points to the country’s paper of finance and business as the source for a particularly candid assessment of the fiscal year 2027 budget.
Indian Strategic Studies
18 June 2026
Pakistan Spends More on One Cash Programme Than On Educating 240 Million People
Pakistan's government allocates substantially more financial resources to the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) than it dedicates to educating its entire population of 240 million people. This single cash transfer initiative, the BISP, has been subject to audits revealing billions in irregularities. For Fiscal Year 2027, the program is projected to absorb 4.5 percent of the national budget.
Climate Change and the Future of Central Asia-South Asia Connectivity
India, alongside international groupings, called for direct action on the widening climate-relevant funding gap at the 64th session of the U.N. climate framework (UNFCCC) subsidiary bodies (SB64) in Bonn, Germany, running June 8-18. Inaction carries significant consequences for climate mitigation and adaptation goals in Central and South Asia, directly impacting ambitious regional connectivity projects.
PRC-linked influence operations are targeting AI debates in the US
OpenAI banned two clusters of ChatGPT accounts, likely originating from China, for using its models in apparent covert influence operations targeting American AI and wider tech policies. The "Data Center Bandwagon" campaign generated social media comments and images claiming AI data center buildouts increased electricity prices for average families.
Opinion – Why the Original Thucydides Trap Fails the Taiwan Strait Crisis
Xi Jinping stated in May 2016 that mishandling the Taiwan issue could lead China and the United States into the Thucydides Trap, a warning against provoking war over Taiwan. The original Thucydides Trap, describing conflict between a rising Athens and dominant Sparta, differs from the Taiwan scenario, which involves three sides: China, the U.S., and Taiwan.
Trump’s Sharp Turn on China: Embracing It as a Peer Power
President Trump's administration, during a meeting in Beijing last month with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, rolled out a new diplomatic phrase: "constructive strategic stability." This language, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously used in Malaysia last summer and again in the Caribbean in February, signals a significant shift towards cooperation or limiting hostilities between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies and most powerful militaries.
Why It’s Nearly Impossible to Build a Robot Without China
China has surpassed Japan in robotics, particularly in humanoid robots, a significant development highlighted at last month’s Humanoids Summit in Tokyo. Chinese companies now dominate the global supply chain for these robots, producing essential parts at a scale and price point that competitors cannot match, leveraging their established electric vehicle industry.
The China collapse that just never arrives
China's economy has consistently defied predictions of its imminent collapse for over two decades, a phenomenon revealing more about observers' biases than the country's actual state. Since Gordon Chang's 2001 prediction in “The Coming Collapse of China,” and subsequent warnings from figures like Nouriel Roubini and Peter Zeihan, the anticipated systemic failure has not materialized.
Hidden Costs of Precision: What Drone Strikes Actually Do to Civilians
U.S. drone strikes in Yemen between 2010 and 2012 caused significant non-lethal disruption to civilian populations, according to new research analyzing over 12 billion cellphone records. Even without civilian casualties, these strikes led to immediate and substantial increases in civilian physical movement, displacing an average of 5% of the nearby population within 24 hours—a rate comparable to major natural disasters.
The United States and Iran Announce a Deal to End the War
The United States and Iran have announced a framework agreement for a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with an MOU signing scheduled for June 19 in Geneva. This deal initiates negotiations on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, requiring Iran to pledge against acquiring nuclear weapons and engage in technical talks on its highly enriched uranium and enrichment capabilities.
The Truce Between the U.S. and Iran Was the Easy Part
The United States and Iran face ongoing negotiations despite a recently outlined truce framework by U.S. President Donald Trump. This framework, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the U.S. blockade, and ceasing military strikes, remains vague. Critical issues like economic relief for Iran, Israel’s war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran’s nuclear program are unresolved.
Musk’s war on European democracy: How to open up X and fight back
Elon Musk has escalated his campaign against European democracies, using X to destabilize governments and empower the far right. He has called the British prime minister a criminal, backed a far-right party, amplified fabricated statistics, and boosted Germany's Alternative for Germany party ahead of the 2025 federal election, spreading a fabricated quote that garnered 21 million views.
Inside Rubicon: The Structure Of Russia’s Elite Drone Center – Analysis
Russia's Ministry of Defense established the Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies on August 2, 2024, under Minister Andrei Belousov, as a direct response to Ukrainian drone innovation and initiatives like Drone Line. This strategic move aimed to centralize the research, development, analysis, procurement, and combat deployment of unmanned aerial, ground, and surface systems (UAS, UGV, USV) within the Russian military.
How Ukraine’s Drone Innovation Reversed Russia’s Momentum
Ukrainian innovation, particularly in scaling drone operations, has led to significant territorial gains, reversing Russia's momentum from 2025. Ukraine retook seventy-eight square miles over five days in February 2026 and continues making gains in its fifth spring offensive, with drones now striking thirty to one hundred kilometers behind front lines.
The War in Ukraine Has Now Gone On Longer Than World War I
The war in Ukraine has now surpassed the duration of World War I, reaching 1,569 days, or over four years and three months, as of Thursday. This milestone was once considered unthinkable, especially after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia initially believed Ukraine would fall within days in February 2022.
A first-time buyer’s guide to mortgage confidence
First-time homebuyers can gain confidence by understanding the true costs of homeownership, moving past initial sticker shock. A 20 percent down payment is often not required, with typical first-time buyer down payments ranging from six to nine percent, though this may involve Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI). Lenders primarily assess a buyer's debt-to-income (DTI) ratio and focus on the monthly PITI (principal, interest, taxes, insurance) payment.
Ukraine's Long-Range Strikes Are Working
Ukraine's relentless long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, fuel depots, refineries, and logistics routes is yielding significant results. Russia is now dedicating over 65% of its federal tax revenue to war and security, a sharp increase from 18% before the full-scale invasion. Widespread fuel shortages are affecting at least 25 Russian regions and six occupied Ukrainian territories, leading to rationing and purchase restrictions by major gas station chains like Tatneft, Rosneft, and Lukoil.
Ukraine has taught the world how to kill again
Ukraine's conflict with Russia has now surpassed the duration of the First World War, lasting 1,569 days, a threshold unthinkable at its outset on February 24, 2022. Military experts, like Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, draw clear parallels between the two conflicts, noting similar principles of war despite vastly changed capabilities.
Iran’s Trolling Caught the U.S. Off Guard. Here’s How to Push Back.
Iran has developed a sophisticated information strategy, employing satirical memes, AI-generated videos, and sarcastic social media responses to counter the United States. This approach, exemplified by jocular retorts to President Trump's threats and popular Lego-inspired AI videos depicting U.S. defeat, aims to undermine U.S. soft power abroad and increase domestic reticence for military action.
Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammad’s Women’s Wing: Jamaat-ul-Muminat
Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) launched a women’s wing, Jamaat-ul-Muminat (JuM), led by Sadiya Azhar, on October 8, 2025, from its Bahawalpur headquarters, following significant setbacks from India’s May 2025 Operation Sindoor airstrikes that killed 12 of Masood Azhar's relatives. JuM employs online platforms like Zoom and WhatsApp for a 15-day "Daura-e-Taskiya" and "Daura-Ayat-ul-Nisah" program, blending religious education with militant jihadist indoctrination for a 500 Pakistani rupees fee.
Opinion – Can Iran and the United States Overcome the Deadlock of Red Lines?
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States face a persistent deadlock due to divergent strategic red lines; Washington seeks to negotiate Iran's missile capabilities and regional influence, while Tehran considers these non-negotiable national security components. This has heightened tensions and increased military confrontation risks. A pathway to overcome this deadlock, without Iran compromising core red lines or ignoring U.S.
Solid Rocket Motors for Missile Defense: Challenges and Opportunities for Expanding the Industrial Base
Recent U.S. missile expenditures, even prior to Operation Epic Fury, generated significant concerns regarding the depth and resilience of U.S. inventories and production rates. The increasing reliance on missiles as “weapons of choice” has created urgent pressure to strengthen the air and missile defense interceptor industrial base, particularly for critical components like solid rocket motors.
More than Just Another Echelon: Defining the Division’s Function in Large-Scale Combat Operations
The 2022 Bakhmut fight demonstrated brigades culminate in large-scale combat operations (LSCO) without adequate higher-echelon battle management. The US Army's "Army of 2030" plan is shifting focus to divisions, recognizing their role in synchronizing reconnaissance, fires, maneuver, and sustainment across multiple brigades over extended depth and duration. Ukraine's experience, with brigades operating within a corps-directed framework and later establishing corps-level commands, validates this intermediate echelon's necessity.
The Performative Myth: Why the Call for a Warrior Ethos is a Structural Category Error
The United States military, despite its unparalleled lethality and technological dominance, faces a peculiar narrative advocating for a return to a traditional warrior ethos. This call, however, represents a structural category error, conflating operational capability with cultural aesthetics. Author Kelvin Otis argues that the military's lethality is a constant, driven by high-level systems integration, data processing, satellite communications, and complex supply chains, rather than individual courage alone.
Trump's Iran Deal: What Comes Next?
The United States and Iran announced a framework deal to end their nearly four-month conflict, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, after significant global economic disruption and over 3,500 deaths in both Iran and Lebanon. This agreement aims to alleviate pressures on energy markets and economies worldwide, which suffered from the Strait's closure, and offers a pathway for talks on Iran's nuclear program.
Military Science and the Intellectual Foundations of War
Military expertise, unlike other professions, is frequently dismissed as mere opinion, despite resting on centuries of accumulated knowledge. Military science, a multidisciplinary field encompassing psychology, politics, and sociology, is the rigorous study of war, built by soldiers, historians, and theorists. While war involves an "art" of real-time adaptation, it is fundamentally underpinned by a "science" of principles and theories tested in battle.
OPINION | Winning minds before battles: Why cognitive warfare may be the 21st century’s most powerful weapon
Cognitive warfare, leveraging smartphones, social media, and AI, is increasingly deciding conflicts before kinetic engagement, shifting modern strategy to battles over perception, belief, and intent. This new reality, exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and India's Operation Sindoor, demonstrates that battlefield success alone no longer guarantees strategic victory, as losing the public narrative risks diplomatic setbacks and economic pressure.
Autonomous Narrative Warfare: Engaging Agentic AI Within the Cognitive Battlespace
Cognition is becoming a focal domain of strategic competition, with agentic AI (aAI) systems emerging as transformative operational technology for autonomous narrative warfare. These aAI systems engage the cognitive domain through adaptive narrative generation, predictive analytics, and affecting emotional states to alter behavioral outcomes. Unlike prior human-directed information operations, aAI conducts these functions simultaneously and recursively, optimizing persuasive content for specific recipients.
Army’s New Transformation Command Lays Out Tech Wish List for Industry (UPDATED)
The Army’s new Transformation and Training Command seeks industry solutions for three critical problems driven by the rapidly shifting nature of warfare, including autonomous systems, contested logistics, and high munition expenditures. Chief Warrant Officer 5 Edwin De La Cruz Jr. highlighted the need to balance high-end, high-cost precision platforms with high-volume, low-cost munitions to achieve sustainable combat mass and affordability.
Iran Is Running the North Korea Playbook: Stall, Negotiate, and Build a Nuclear Bomb Anyway
Iran is reportedly employing a strategy mirroring North Korea's approach to nuclear weapons development, characterized by stalling negotiations to gain time. North Korea successfully developed a nuclear bomb despite talks, with its 2022 doctrine authorizing launches if its leaders are attacked, a strategy Kim Jong Un now references to justify his actions.
17 June 2026
The RIC (China-India-Russia) Revival and India's Starlink Freeze
India faces increasing pressure from both the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral and the United States, revealing its deliberate multi-alignment strategy. China's Foreign Ministry recently endorsed deeper RIC cooperation, urging New Delhi to view Beijing as a partner, not a rival, following Vladimir Putin's praise for Modi and Xi. Simultaneously, India has frozen final approvals for Starlink's commercial launch, with security agencies demanding SpaceX explain how a U.S.-owned operator can guarantee compliance during geopolitical tensions, especially after Starlink terminals reportedly operated in Iran without a license.
In Afghanistan, Pakistan Tastes Its Own Medicine
India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, establishing a doctrine treating state support for terror as acts of war, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam. Pakistan, initially denouncing this doctrine, subsequently applied the same rationale against Afghanistan's Taliban government in February 2026. Pakistan initiated Operation Ghazab lil Haq, involving sustained air and artillery strikes across eastern Afghan provinces, targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) camps.
Myanmar’s Military Isn’t Conceding Much
Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, who seized power in a 2021 coup, released overthrown civilian president Win Myint in April after more than five years in prison, while former State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi was transferred to house arrest. This move, five years after the coup, reflects the regime's growing confidence rather than significant concessions to international calls from the United Nations and the United States.
China learns to live on less fuel, to the relief of oil markets
China, the world's largest oil importer, requires significantly less fuel than anticipated, a reality emerging three months into the Iran war. Gasoline sales at Sinopec, the world's largest refiner, dropped 8% year-on-year in April, while diesel fell 6%, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 20% decline in gasoline use.
The False Promise of U.S.-China Stability: Washington Will Come to Regret Its Stalemate With Beijing
U.S.-Chinese relations during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term are defined by an uneasy quiescence, termed "constructive strategic stability" by both governments, but more accurately a stalemate of "mutually assured disruption." Beijing perceives this stalemate as a victory, leveraging it to accrue advantages without global responsibilities. Washington, under Trump, is seen as squandering hard power and military strength by prioritizing commerce over security and diverting resources to another war in the Middle East.