Central Asia Walls Off as Russian Fuel Dries Up

Jamestown Foundation | Sertaç Canalp Korkmaz

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, including the July 6 attack on the Omsk plant reported by Meduza, have knocked out over a quarter of Russia's refining capacity, triggering a severe fuel crisis across Central Asia. This disruption has forced Moscow to halt exports and seek imports, leaving import-dependent Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan facing acute shortages.

Historically reliant on cheap Russian refined energy to power their economies, these landlocked nations are struggling to secure alternative supplies as winter approaches. Regional fuel export bans are expanding. Kazakhstan is extending its strict fuel export ban through May 2027, while Uzbekistan draws down domestic reserves and Kyrgyzstan secures marginal fuel contracts with China and Belarus. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict has throttled the Strait of Hormuz, doubling jet fuel prices and compounding the regional aviation fuel squeeze. This dual shock threatens to escalate into a systemic winter energy crisis as household heating and electricity demands surge.

Eleven nations, zero trust: The great BRICS delusion

Washington Examiner | David W. Wang

The 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi convened leaders from the expanded eleven-nation bloc to challenge G7 dominance by advocating for a multipolar global order. This diplomatic gathering highlighted the group's growing physical mass but exposed severe structural vulnerabilities that prevent it from projecting unified geopolitical power. Trust remains entirely absent.

While the joint declaration issued in New Delhi emphasizes a shift away from Western-led financial and political systems, deep-seated institutional deficiencies undermine these aspirations. Specifically, the bloc lacks the modernized, load-bearing legal and administrative frameworks necessary to sustain a cohesive international coalition. Consequently, the alliance functions more as a fragile diplomatic bubble than a robust counterweight to established Western institutions. Without fundamental structural reforms, these persistent internal divisions and institutional deficits will continue to limit the bloc's collective ability to enact coordinated economic policies or challenge the existing global financial architecture.

Why Existential AI Fears Have Hit a Crescendo

Foreign Policy  |  Jacob Coxon

Artificial intelligence safety concerns have reached unprecedented urgency as frontier developers including OpenAI and Anthropic rapidly advance powerful models under intensifying geopolitical competition. Escalating fears over catastrophic risks, uncontrolled capability gains, and potential existential threats are driving high-stakes policy debates between industry leaders like Dario Amodei and Sam Altman and key government officials.

The second Trump administration faces mounting strategic pressure to establish enforceable regulatory frameworks while simultaneously preserving national technological superiority over foreign strategic rivals. Structural commercial dynamics within the technology sector have accelerated competitive pressures, pushing leading laboratories to prioritize rapid model deployment over exhaustive safety evaluations. Consequently, global governance initiatives remain highly fragmented, leaving international institutional oversight mechanisms ill-equipped for sovereign autonomous risks or dual-use capability proliferation. Moving forward, the evolving intersection of national security directives, domestic legislative action, and private sector incentives will determine whether existential risk mitigation can effectively coexist with aggressive technical expansion.

What is AI, how does it work and why are some people concerned about it?

BBC

The rapid proliferation of generative artificial intelligence systems, led by OpenAI's ChatGPT and Chinese rival DeepSeek, has triggered a global regulatory race as governments scramble to manage the technology's massive environmental footprint and societal risks. Data centres powering these advanced models consume vast quantities of energy and water, forcing tech giants to reconsider infrastructure projects in drought-prone regions like Chile.

To address these mounting challenges, the European Union has enacted the landmark Artificial Intelligence Act to ban high-risk applications and enforce strict compliance standards. In contrast, China has bound its generative AI developers to strict state censorship laws while mandating data transparency. Regulatory approaches remain deeply fragmented globally. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom and the United States have eschewed immediate legislation, opting instead to collaborate through the UK's independent AI Security Institute to develop robust, joint testing methodologies for frontier models.

A backlash over data centres is another threat to the AI juggernaut

BBC | Faisal Islam

Data centres powering artificial intelligence are triggering a severe political and environmental backlash across the United States and the United Kingdom due to soaring local electricity prices, high water consumption, and noise pollution. This growing public opposition now threatens to disrupt upcoming US midterm elections and derail national technology strategies.

At the core of this friction is the massive resource footprint of AI infrastructure, which requires continuous power and cooling systems that strain local municipal grids. Local communities bear the immediate costs. In response, US politicians like Senator Bernie Sanders and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are demanding construction moratoriums and stripping tax breaks, while the UK Labour government faces legal challenges from groups like Foxglove despite designating data centres as Critical National Infrastructure. Ultimately, balancing the UK's target of expanding capacity threefold to 6 gigawatts by 2030 against net-zero commitments and local sovereignty remains a critical unresolved tension.

AI Safety Needs Stop Rules, Not A General Slowdown – OpEd

Eurasia Review | Burak Oktenli

President Donald Trump and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have presented contrasting approaches to the artificial intelligence race, balancing the preservation of United States technological leadership against the necessity of pacing frontier model development. This debate highlights the tension between maintaining geopolitical competitiveness and managing the existential risks of rapid, unconstrained AI capability growth.

Rather than implementing a crude general slowdown, a transition-specific stop rule offers a workable middle ground by freezing specific permissions, deployments, or autonomous capabilities when safety evidence fails. Under this framework, independent external evaluators would possess the authority to delay or block transitions, such as expanding a model's external system access, if containment assumptions are breached. Restarting these experiments would require concrete evidence addressing the specific failure rather than relying on the passage of time or improved aggregate benchmarks. Containment remains the priority. This granular approach prevents industry-wide stagnation while securing critical safety boundaries.

2026 NASCIO-Deloitte Cybersecurity Study

Deloitte Insights | Meredith Ward, Mike Wyatt

Deloitte Insights has launched its digital platform interface featuring a suite of proprietary research portfolios, including the 2026 Global Human Capital Trends and Tech Trends 2026. This centralised hub provides public and private sector organisations with strategic analysis across diverse industries, such as government, telecommunications, and financial services.

The platform serves as a critical resource for state and local government entities seeking data-driven operational guidance. Through specialised research hubs like the Centre for Government Insights, the publication delivers targeted analyses on defence, security, justice, and infrastructure. Additionally, the platform integrates interactive learning tools, offering professional development through Dbriefs webcasts. The portal offers CPE credits. These resources collectively aim to assist decision-makers in translating organisational aspirations into practical, actionable strategies amidst evolving technological and economic landscapes. Ultimately, the portal facilitates continuous executive education and cross-industry strategic planning.

Black Sea USVs Driving Adoption in Caspian

Jamestown Foundation | Turan Darishov

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s recent inspection of locally produced SALVO and KAYRA unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) marks a significant escalation in the militarisation of the Caspian Sea. Developed through a joint venture between Azerbaijan's MIRAS Military-Industrial Company and Türkiye’s DEARSAN Shipyard, these platforms introduce advanced strike and kamikaze capabilities to a historically quiet maritime theater.

This rapid technological adoption stems directly from Ukraine's successful asymmetric campaign against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, which demonstrated how low-cost, expendable naval drones can neutralise conventional warships. Consequently, littoral states are shifting their focus toward coastal defence, maritime security, and infrastructure protection. Regional naval doctrines are changing rapidly. While Kazakhstan and Russia's Caspian Flotilla have integrated anti-USV drills into their training, Iran's domestic manufacturing of the Ya Mahdi platform ensures that unmanned systems will dominate future Caspian security dynamics, reinforcing a broader regional shift toward defensive and asymmetric maritime operations.

Capital Must Become Capability

Real Clear Defense | Ryan P. McDermott

United States Deputy Secretary of War Steve Feinberg’s August 18 cost-transparency directive has sparked intense industry concern by demanding deeper access to contractor financial systems. Critics like Bill Greenwalt warn this regulatory overreach risks driving critical commercial technology firms and private capital away from the defence sector.

The policy aims to prevent overpricing where competition is weak, but applying rigid cost-accounting rules universally threatens to dismantle decades of acquisition reform. Capital has alternatives. Consequently, the Pentagon must distinguish between price discipline for sole-source contracts, market discipline for commercial innovation, and capital discipline to prevent financial fragility in lower-tier supply chains. Slow cash flow at the prime contractor level quickly cascades downward, turning working capital constraints into physical production bottlenecks. Ultimately, the military's ability to scale weapons manufacturing depends on aligning its payment practices with the diverse financial models of its suppliers.

BRICS Grits Its Teeth Through a New Delhi Breakthrough

RealClearDefense | Aarti Betigeri

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted leaders from eleven Global South nations at the eighteenth BRICS summit in New Delhi, securing unanimous adoption of a joint declaration comprising nearly 140 clauses. The gathering marked Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first official visit to India in seven years despite ongoing bilateral border friction.

Coming amid an expanding Middle East conflict entering its sixth month and persistent war in Ukraine, the consensus overcomes the diplomatic stalemate that blocked agreement at May's ministerial meeting. Multipolar institutions are asserting greater collective authority. The resulting text advocates structural reforms to the United Nations Security Council, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund while opposing unilateral Western sanctions. The declaration prioritises local currency settlement systems in international trade and peaceful space research cooperation. Side meetings enabled direct dialogue between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and UAE leadership, establishing a functional pragmatic platform for rival regional powers.

Why Have Indians Become a Regular Target of Hate in Singapore?

The Diplomat | Asif Ullah Khan

Singapore is experiencing a sharp rise in racial hostility and derogatory online attacks targeting its ethnic Indian community, threatening the city-state's long-cherished model of multicultural cohesion. Recent online backlash has targeted nine Singaporeans of Indian descent missing in Nepal, alongside xenophobic attacks against Temasek chief executive Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara over corporate investments.

This friction challenges the foundational nation-building policies established when Lee Kuan Yew led Singapore out of the Malaysian Federation on August 9, 1965. To prevent alienation after the 1964 race riots left 36 people dead, Lee instituted English as the primary administrative language and mandated strict ethnic quotas in housing. Social media has now shattered this carefully managed peace. Resentment has intensified as Singapore Airlines, which owns 25 per cent of Air India, reported a 57.4 per cent net profit drop to S$1.2 billion for the year ending March 2026, fueling conspiracy theories that the Indian-origin executive would prioritise the loss-making airline.

Pakistan: Rising ISPP Menace

Eurasia Review | Ruchika Kakkar

Islamic State Pakistan Province (ISPP) militants assassinated Khurshid Pandrani Raisani in Balochistan, Pakistan, on September 8, 2026, signalling the group's persistent campaign of sectarian and political violence. This targeted killing follows a devastating suicide bombing on February 6, 2026, at Islamabad's Khadijah al-Kubra Imambargah that killed 32 Shia worshippers and injured 169 others.

Formed in May 2019 after splitting from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the group leverages residual anti-Shia sectarian networks historically linked to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi to execute low-to-medium intensity operations. The group lacks immediate territorial ambitions. Instead, it prioritises sectarian polarisation through targeted assassinations of Shia Hazaras, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam activists, and security personnel across Balochistan and urban centres. While smaller than its parent organisation, the faction's fluid cadre loyalties, encrypted communications, and deep-seated local ties sustain its operational resilience, posing a persistent threat to Pakistan's internal security as it continues to exploit deep sectarian fault lines.

The Avoidable Tragedy At PIMS

Brief PK

Islamabad's Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) suffered a catastrophic nursery tragedy that turned a highly funded facility into a disaster zone. Japan financed the facility's intensive-care wards, fire alarms, and firefighting equipment, while Pakistani authorities supplied billions more in domestic funding to secure the hospital. A nursery filled with oxygen became a death chamber during the incident, which began at 6:45.

The exits were locked. Rescuers arriving at the scene discovered that these locked doors prevented escape and hindered rescue operations. This critical failure of operational protocols and safety oversight occurred despite the advanced equipment provided by Japanese donors and the massive financial resources allocated by Pakistani authorities. The tragedy highlights severe gaps in facility management, emergency preparedness, and basic safety compliance at one of the region's major medical institutions, where locked exits nullified millions in modern safety systems.

Bangladesh: Stressed Media

Eurasia Review | Sanchita Bhattacharya

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Islamist groups have intensified physical assaults and legal prosecutions against journalists, severely undermining press freedom during the country's ongoing political transition. Since August 5, 2024, at least 13 media workers have been killed and 62 injured in 53 separate incidents of violence. This systemic hostility reflects a broader breakdown in the rule of law following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, during which over 100 people were killed in political violence.

The International Crimes Tribunal is now being deployed to prosecute reporters like Shyamal Dutta and Mozammel Babu under "crimes against humanity" charges for their coverage of the July 2024 protests. Meanwhile, a May 18, 2026, Police Special Branch directive ordered the collection of political profiles and social media data on Dhaka-based reporters. At least 266 journalists currently face active litigation. Press freedom is under siege.

Environmental Exploitation And Deception

Eurasia Review

Chinese state-affiliated mining firms and private enterprises are systematically outsourcing highly polluting critical mineral extraction and refining processes to Southeast Asian nations with weak regulatory frameworks. This strategic relocation secures Beijing's dominance over global electric vehicle and defence supply chains while externalising severe ecological and human costs to vulnerable host states.

In Indonesia, entities like Tsingshan Holding Group control approximately 75 per cent of nickel refining capacity, relying on massive coal-fired plants like the 5-gigawatt Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park. Rainforest clearance there exceeds 8,700 hectares. Meanwhile, unregulated rare-earth extraction in Myanmar's conflict-torn Shan and Kachin states has triggered transboundary arsenic pollution, with the Stimson Center identifying 2,420 unregulated mining sites contaminating major river systems. These operations threaten the health of millions downstream along the Mekong River, prompting calls for alternative supply chains, rigorous buyer standards, and enhanced satellite monitoring to counter this transboundary ecological crisis.

Fighters Without Borders: Mercenaries, Adventurers, and Volunteers in Myanmar’s Civil War

The Diplomat | Thurein Naing, Harry Myo Lin

The Tiger-2026 joint military exercise in July 2026, featuring Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) training alongside Myanmar troops, marks a significant escalation in military co-operation between Moscow and Naypyidaw. This growing official presence, complemented by suspected Russian mercenaries, aims to bolster the embattled regime of Min Aung Hlaing against a highly effective domestic resistance.

Historically, Myanmar's complex borderlands have long attracted diverse foreign actors, ranging from the CIA-backed Kuomintang in the Cold War to French Foreign Legion veterans advising the Karen National Union in Kawthoolei. Foreign involvement is not new. Today, the conflict draws volunteers like the Anti-Fascist Internationalist Front, alongside Ukrainian and American drone instructors arrested in India in August 2026. Concurrently, China has expanded its footprint, deploying the Frontier Security Group to protect strategic infrastructure in Kyaukphyu. This influx of Russian personnel and Chinese private security firms threatens to internationalise the civil war, transforming local struggles into a complex arena of competing geopolitical interests.

Securing the Supply Chain: China’s Critical Minerals Network and the Security Risks for the Americas

Diálogo Américas | Maria Zuppello

Latin America's critical minerals market, valued at approximately $180 billion, is facing deep integration into China's industrial supply chains as Beijing expands its control over regional lithium and copper reserves. This consolidation directly threatens the national security of Western nations reliant on these materials for advanced defence manufacturing.

Historically, Chinese state-owned enterprises have leveraged direct investments, such as the $20 billion mining portfolio in Peru and the La Arena project, to monopolise downstream refining. Consequently, sixty-two per cent of regional mineral exports remain unprocessed raw materials, leaving local economies vulnerable to predatory pricing and supply manipulation. This extreme market concentration severely weakens local bargaining power. To counter this dominance, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil are implementing national strategies like Brazil's National Mining Plan 2050 to build domestic processing capacity and establish diversified, integrated commercial networks with the United States and the European Union.

The Coming AI Backlash

Council on Foreign Relations | Chris McGuire

Artificial intelligence policy is going to be the central issue in the 2028 U.S. presidential election since rapid technological advances are causing serious disruptions at home. The leading models are expected to be 250 times more powerful by the day of the election, and growing public opposition is being driven by concerns over widespread job losses, the possibility of cyber weaponisation, and national security risks.

The political pressure arises from the fact that federal regulation is almost non-existent, which has caused voters to feel economically at risk and has made them more suspicious of state surveillance. AI is still very unpopular; just 10 per cent of Americans are excited about the technology, and politicians such as Senator Bernie Sanders are calling for immediate moratoriums on data centres. At the same time, the military's use of autonomous systems in Iran has reduced target identification from hours to seconds, showing how important it is to keep ahead of China in terms of technology. In order to avoid a catastrophic situation, future U.S. policy had better both secure global supply chains, put in place safety tests, and redistribute the productivity gains brought about by AI.

The World’s Only Real Hope of Maintaining Order

Foreign Policy | Charles Kupchan

A new global concert system, which has been designed by Charles Kupchan, provides a form of governance that is both centralised and regionalised in order to preserve the international order in the face of growing geopolitical tension. The system is intended to handle the systemic instability caused by the competition between the United States and China, the war in Ukraine, and the worsening crises in the Middle East. In the past, established international organisations such as the United Nations have had difficulty in adapting to a multipolar arrangement of power.

The framework suggested assigns managerial responsibilities to the regional organisations while still keeping a central core made up of the great powers in order to stop local conflicts from spreading into global wars. A consensus among the great powers is essential. By combining regional autonomy with central supervision, this two-pronged system aims to maintain stability even though the existing multilateral institutions continue to suffer from constant deadlock. In the end, this reform is a practical way of avoiding systemic collapse in an age characterised by fragmented alliances, technological disruptions, trade disputes, and changing global power relations.

Are Chinese Firms Handing the United States Data?

Foreign Policy | Deng Yuwenr

There is a risk that Chinese artificial intelligence companies taking part in international AI safety programmes and making use of American foundational models could be unintentionally sending sensitive data to the United States; since this data transfer takes place via API queries, joint research, and bilateral technical summits with American firms such as Anthropic, it reveals a serious weakness in Beijing's digital sovereignty strategy.

Although China is aiming to keep strict control over domestic data, the fact that its business sector depends so much on advanced AI systems from the West and on Western cloud infrastructure means that there is a constant and unwatched flow of confidential information. This situation leads to serious intelligence risks. As a result, the struggle for superiority in AI capabilities weakens Beijing's attempts to protect its internal information system from foreign spying, so that commercial activities become a means of geopolitical espionage. The resulting tension shows how difficult it is to disconnect highly integrated technology supply chains, since Chinese developers have to continually strike a balance between achieving top operational performance and complying with ever more stringent state-imposed security regulations.

China’s Top Spy Chief Warns A.I. Is a Threat to Party Rule

The New York Times | Lily Kuo

On September 14, 2026, Chen Yixin, minister of the Chinese Ministry of State Security, stated that artificial intelligence represents a direct threat to the rule of the Chinese Communist Party and urged an increase in party control as well as more stringent regulatory supervision. In an article published in China Cyberspace, Chen pointed out the dangers posed by sophisticated foreign models such as Claude Mythos and GPT-5.5-Cyber, giving as examples the use of deepfakes for propaganda, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and hostile intelligence activities.

Foreign intelligence agencies are actively using algorithm-based tools to attack domestic networks, and there are still serious breaches of information security. It has recently come to light that the Chinese company Moonshot AI directed queries involving Chinese military video surveillance data to the American Claude servers. Moreover, the use of American military AI during the conflict between the U.S. and Israel over Iran shows just how automated sensing and algorithmic targeting have fundamentally changed modern warfare on the battlefield. In order to meet these developing threats, Beijing is placing a higher priority on data sovereignty and state security than on international agreements concerning AI safety ahead of the September 24 bilateral summit in Washington.

How Cascading Crises Are Testing Saudi Arabia’s Foundations

Eurasia Review | Murray Hunter

Saudi Arabia faced severe military and economic pressure in September 2026 following rapid Houthi advances along Yemen's Red Sea coast. The insurgent group seized the strategic ports of Mocha and Dhubab, alongside Perim and the Hanish Islands, effectively restricting shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This maritime blockade immediately threatened regional energy security.

Concurrently, drone strikes disabled the critical 1,200-kilometre East-West Petroline to Yanbu, severely constraining Saudi crude export capacity. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly sought intelligence assistance from Israel via U.S. Central Command. However, this outreach risks undermining the kingdom's religious legitimacy as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. Furthermore, the August 2026 Makkah Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan has failed to deliver active military support. These compounding external shocks now threaten to inflame domestic vulnerabilities, including royal succession disputes, fiscal strain, and unrest among volatile border tribes in Najran, Jazan, and Asir.

Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Vali Nasr

Iranian missile and drone strikes against United States military infrastructure in February 2026 effectively dismantled the decades-old American regional security architecture across the Persian Gulf. Following an initial U.S.-Israeli assault, Tehran systematically targeted over a dozen American bases, destroying key facilities like the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.

This deliberate offensive forced Washington to relocate remaining military assets to Israel, Jordan, and Syria after interceptor stocks dwindled. Iran gained strategic leverage. Simultaneously, Tehran closed and asserted sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz, converting global maritime commercial connectivity into a direct economic vulnerability. Strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas field wiped out 17 per cent of its LNG capacity for three to five years. President Trump signed a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to avoid global economic catastrophe, tacitly accepting Tehran's expanded posture while Arab monarchies reassessed their long-standing reliance on Western defence guarantees.

Two alliances just failed Saudi Arabia. Then they called Trump

Washington Examiner | Emzari Gelashvili

Houthi forces seized complete control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait after capturing Mokha, Dhubab, and Perim Island following missile and drone strikes against four Saudi cities that wounded 73 civilians. The swift offensive abruptly severed crucial Red Sea trade routes, sending Brent crude prices soaring near $108 per barrel.

Despite the recent signing of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, mutual defence partners Pakistan and Turkey provided no military assistance to Riyadh. Facing additional drone strikes against its East-West oil pipeline from Iraqi territory, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested direct American military intervention. President Trump declined the request, prioritising naval focus on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz while offering intelligence support instead. The Houthis subsequently instituted a selective blockade, granting de facto immunity to Chinese-flagged vessels while targeting Saudi-linked shipping. Treaties proved ineffective. Washington chose operational restraint over opening a second front ahead of high-level diplomatic summitry with Beijing.

MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption

The Atlantic | Anne Applebaum

The Trump administration unexpectedly imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Brazilian products and sanctioned Supreme Court justices in the summer of 2025 to influence the country's internal politics. This unprecedented deployment of economic coercion targeted Justice Alexandre de Moraes for prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro and clashing with billionaire donor Elon Musk.

Historically, Washington reserved such punitive measures for dictators and international criminals rather than friendly democratic partners. The sudden policy shift reflects a broader alignment between far-right ideologues and private interests, transforming American foreign policy into a tool for private gain and antidemocratic reaction. This is transactional foreign policy. The administration's actions directly support Bolsonaro, who faced trial for plotting a 2022 coup that culminated in his supporters storming Brazil's Parliament. By leveraging financial and travel sanctions to punish foreign judicial officials, the United States risks permanently fracturing regional alliances.

Is the U.S. Army Backing Off on Drones?

Council on Foreign Relations | Michael C. Horowitz

The U.S. Army faces growing scrutiny over its commitment to integrating uncrewed systems following several high-profile setbacks in mid-2026. During the Combined Resolve exercise in Hohenfels, Germany, the 3rd Armoured Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, was decisively outperformed by highly experienced Ukrainian drone units operating in contested electromagnetic environments.

This operational deficit coincides with the service phasing out a specialised European-based airborne infantry battalion dedicated to drone experimentation. Leadership transitions further complicate this trajectory. The resignation of Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, champion of the Army Transformation Initiative, leaves a leadership void. While Acting Chief of Staff General Christopher LaNeve emphasises basic soldiering, Pentagon initiatives like the Drone Dominance Program and a projected $55 billion budget for the Defence Autonomous Warfare Group in fiscal year 2027 could offset these institutional shifts. Ultimately, rapid tactical adoption remains critical to maintaining a modern competitive edge.

THE 9/11 COMMISSION REPORT

House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence | U.S. House of Representatives

President George W. Bush established the National Counterterrorism Centre in August 2004 through Executive Order 13354 to integrate all-source terrorism intelligence across the foreign-domestic divide. Congress codified the entity under the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 to lead strategic operational planning under the Director of National Intelligence.

This structural overhaul addressed critical pre-9/11 coordination failures between the Central Intelligence Agency and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Strategic authorities, however, were deliberately restricted from directly commanding field execution. Implementation gaps soon emerged. During the November 2009 Fort Hood shooting and the December 2009 Detroit airline bombing plot, federal agencies held critical threat records on Nidal Hasan and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab but failed to cross-reference existing databases. These operational breakdowns underscored that legal structural unification alone could not resolve lingering analytical oversight and data-sharing friction across intelligence agencies.

How Al-Shabab Beat the Peacekeepers

Foreign Policy | Mohamed Gabobe

Al-Shabaab militants have successfully exploited the phased drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia to reoccupy critical territories and intensify asymmetric attacks across the Horn of Africa. This security vacuum exposes the systemic vulnerabilities of the Somali National Army, which remains plagued by severe logistical deficits and unresolved clan rivalries.

Over nearly two decades, international partners poured billions of dollars into AMISOM and its successor, ATMIS, yet failed to build a self-sustaining local security apparatus. The insurgents maintained operational resilience by establishing a highly effective shadow administration that out-taxes the federal government. Somalia's security forces cannot hold ground alone. This vulnerability invites disaster. With the transition to a new African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia threatened by regional disputes between Ethiopia and Egypt, the militant group is poised to expand its influence and destabilise East Africa.

The case for climate realism in an age of soaring energy demand

Engelsberg Ideas | Dieter Helm

Global energy demand is projected to double by 2050, driven by a massive technological shift toward energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence. This surge severely undermines the conventional decarbonisation narrative, as intermittent renewable sources fail to meet the strict reliability requirements of these emerging digital sectors, forcing a reliance on fossil fuels.

Historically, European nations outsourced their emissions by offshoring heavy manufacturing to China, creating a false impression of decoupled economic growth. Now, the Jevons paradox dictates that efficiency gains actually lower prices and stimulate consumption. Clean energy is a myth. Every power source relies on destructive mining for critical minerals. Consequently, the world will likely miss the 2015 Paris Agreement target of keeping warming well below 2°C. Nations must therefore prepare to adapt to rising sea levels and peak temperatures while accepting that true mitigation requires a fundamental, politically difficult reassessment of global economic growth and consumer demand.

The Insurance Industry’s Retreat from AI Threatens to Slow Innovation and Adoption

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Gregory C. Allen

State insurance commissioners in the United States approved over 80 percent of insurer requests to exclude artificial intelligence damages from corporate coverage policies on April 23, 2026. This regulatory shift positions insurance carriers as de facto regulators capable of stalling commercial artificial intelligence deployment nationwide. A 2025 Geneva Association assessment revealed that generative AI fails three criteria under the traditional Berliner insurability framework.

Severe information asymmetry prevents underwriters from auditing underlying models or pricing risks accurately. Meanwhile, cumulative corporate litigation related to generative AI expanded by 978 percent between 2021 and 2025. Uninsurable activities effectively become prohibited activities. To resolve this market failure, policy proposals advocate establishing a national incident database at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, forming a state-federal regulatory working group, creating a Price-Anderson-style federal liability backstop, and licensing independent verification organizations. These structural reforms aim to convert private insurance from a deployment barrier into a safety accelerator for emerging technologies.