Hormuz Is a Warning for the Indo-Pacific: The Coming Contest for Asia’s Waterways

Foreign Affairs | Lynn Kuok

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) moved to close the Strait of Hormuz in late February, issuing warnings and employing drones, antiship missiles, and mines to disrupt oil exports and send energy prices soaring. This crisis demonstrates that closing a strait has become easier due to inexpensive technologies, while concentrated global trade magnifies the impact, with major powers increasingly willing to disregard international law.

The Island-Chain Allies

The Wire China  |  Chris Horton

Japan and the Philippines are significantly deepening defense cooperation, exemplified by the Balikatan 2026 military exercises where Japanese troops sank the Philippine BRP Quezon with Type 88 anti-ship missiles off northern Luzon. These exercises, the largest to date with 1,400 Japanese troops, implicitly targeted China, demonstrating a united front among "First Island Chain" democracies including Taiwan.

PLA Reshapes Military Theory Development System for Future Warfare

Jamestown | K. Tristan Tang

The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) _Regulations on Military Theory Work_ officially took effect on March 1, fundamentally reshaping the Chinese military theory development system. These regulations aim to accelerate the modernization of military theory, focusing on building a joint operational theory system capable of adapting to future warfare, particularly informatized and intelligentized warfare.

China and Russia: the uneasy couple

Asia Times  |  Francesco Sisci

Russia seeks to intensify its relationship with China but publicly expresses anxiety that Beijing treats it as a junior partner, avoiding full commitment to their strategic partnership, as highlighted by a May 16 RT criticism. China, conversely, is irritated by Russia's deepening ties with North Korea, which Beijing views as its periphery and a move impacting regional security, including rearmament in South Korea and Japan.

Beijing Entrenches Asymmetric Closed-Door Strategy

Substack | Christopher Nye & Charles Sun

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is systematically constructing a functional closed-door regime to retain core factors of production—people, capital, frontier technology, and proprietary information—within its borders, citing national security imperatives. This doctrine is evidenced by recent administrative regulations and enforcement actions, including the State Council's Orders No. 834 and 835, and the NDRC's prohibition of Meta's acquisition of Chinese AI firm Manus.

Xi Jinping’s praise of ‘Make America Great Again’ a major signal

Asia Times |Lanxin Xiang

Chinese President Xi Jinping publicly praised the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement at a state banquet during a summit with Trump in Beijing, a gesture largely dismissed by Western media and China hawks. Trump swiftly reciprocated by downplaying Taiwan's strategic importance, refusing to defend it via traditional military deterrence, and pressuring the Taiwanese government on arms sales to manage the Taiwan Strait issue within an agreed "constructive strategic stability" framework.

China’s Quiet Summit Victory

National Interest  |  Christopher Nye

Chinese President Xi Jinping secured a significant diplomatic victory during last week's summit with President Donald Trump in Beijing, establishing a framework for “a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability” over the next three years. While Beijing offered extensive pageantry, rhetorical fusion, and endorsements on Iran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, along with economic deliverables like 200 Boeing aircraft and $17 billion in agricultural goods, these were largely reversals of prior disruptions.

A Fine Balance: Dependence and Autonomy in US Alliances

Geopoliticalmonitor

US overseas military bases deliver unmatched reach but bind allied land and infrastructure into a strategic architecture, potentially pulling host countries into conflicts beyond their direct control. The core issue in alliance politics is the degree of control a host country retains once its territory becomes critical to a larger military system, a dynamic sharpened during intensified military activity.

Spheres by Default

Foreign Affairs  |  Rebecca Lissner, Mira Rapp-Hooper

Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office last January, analysts have debated whether his administration is pursuing a sphere of influence strategy, an approach where great powers divide the world into privileged blocs.

Trump met top advisers on Iran as he weighs return to war

Axios  |  Barak Ravid

President Trump convened a meeting with his senior national security team on Friday morning to discuss the potential for war with Iran, as two U.S. officials informed Axios. Trump is seriously considering launching new strikes against Iran, a decision contingent on the failure of last-minute negotiations, according to sources who have directly communicated with the president.

Bypassing the straits: The India-Middle East-Europe corridor needs a wartime redesign

European Council on Foreign Relations  |  Cinzia Bianco, Arturo Varvelli

The war in Iran has imposed a $25 billion cost on global business, largely due to the weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the vulnerabilities of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Conceived for peacetime, IMEC's reliance on maritime chokepoints and its proposed route through Israel now render it ill-suited for a region dominated by grey zone conflict.

Moscow’s views of the war of tomorrow

NATO Defense College  |  Andrew Monaghan

Russia’s vision of “tomorrow’s war” differs sharply from NATO’s, envisioning a large-scale global confrontation with geoeconomic roots driven by the United States, rather than a localized conflict in north-eastern Europe. Moscow's core scenario involves a U.S.-led “21st century blitzkrieg” featuring waves of missile strikes coordinated with highly mobile, multi-domain forces, with a particular emphasis on maritime threats.

New Law Gives Kremlin Expanded Power to Use Force to Defend Russians Abroad

Eurasia Daily Monitor | Paul Goble

The Russian Duma passed a new law granting the Kremlin expanded authority to deploy military force abroad to defend Russian citizens if they are arrested or charged, including by international courts in which Russia does not participate. This measure, approved by the Federation Council and awaiting President Putin's signature, aims to intimidate other countries and international legal bodies, deterring them from prosecuting Russians, potentially including Putin himself, and thereby undermining the international legal system.

Parameters, Summer 2026 no. 56, no. 2

 Parameters, Summer 2026 no. 56, no. 2 

The State of the US Army

Fighting for Intelligence in Large-Scale Combat Operations: The Role of the Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Battalion–Next

Geopolitical Chessboard: How Vietnam Shapes American-Chinese Competition

Key Themes in Sino-American History

Rethinking Power: E. H. Carr’s Enduring Lessons for Modern Strategists

How Is Going to War Like Buying a Car?: The Bargaining Model of War

A New Security Framework for NATO’s Eastern Flank

Turning Tactical Victories into Strategic Success: Counterinsurgency in the Irish Civil War, 1922–23

Closing the Gap Between Threat and Rival

The Cockroach Problem

FrameTheGlobeNews  

A political communications student at Boston University, Abhijeet Dipke, recently launched a Google form to recruit members for a satirical political party he named 'the Cock…'. This seemingly innocuous digital initiative quickly escalated into a significant event, as highlighted by the article's subheadline, 'Twenty-One Million Followers and the State That Flinched'.

No more political games: Canada must come to the table

The Hill  |  Rep. Claudia Tenney

The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) faces its first mandatory six-year review by July 1, with the U.S. seeking to address outstanding trade issues with Canada and Mexico. While Mexico has engaged pragmatically, Canada has refused to come to the negotiating table, jeopardizing the agreement's progress and the "huge victory" it represented for American families, farmers, manufacturers, and small businesses.

Gaza Killed Harris in Michigan. The DNC’s 192-Page Autopsy Does Not Contain the Word.

TheGlobalChief

The Democratic National Committee's comprehensive 192-page post-mortem report, designed to analyze Kamala Harris's electoral defeat, notably fails to mention 'Gaza,' despite the article's direct assertion that the conflict was a decisive factor in her loss in Michigan. This extensive DNC autopsy delves into various internal campaign shortcomings, specifically detailing issues related to advertising expenditures, the candidate's preparation, and identified messaging failures.

Musk’s SpaceX Reveals Its Finances for the First Time

The New York Times  |  Ryan Mac, Lauren Hirsch

SpaceX, Elon Musk’s privately held rocket and satellite maker, disclosed its financial performance for the first time on Wednesday, revealing revenue soared to $18.7 billion in 2025, a 33 percent increase from the previous year. In the first three months of this year, revenue reached $4.7 billion, up from $4.1 billion. Despite this growth, SpaceX reported a significant loss of over $4.9 billion in 2025, a stark contrast to its $791 million profit in 2024, primarily due to capital expenditures nearly doubling to $20.7 billion from heavy spending on artificial intelligence development. The company, which values itself at $1.25 trillion, lost $4.3 billion in Q1 this year and is preparing for an initial public offering as early as next month, aiming to raise $50 billion to $75 billion. This potential IPO, one of the largest to date, could precede offerings from other major A.I. companies like Anthropic and OpenAI.

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Iran War Exposes Shortcomings in U.S. Military Industrial Base

The New York Times  |  Julian E. Barnes

The Iran war has exposed deep shortcomings in America’s military industrial base and weapon procurement systems, as the U.S. military rapidly expended over 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles. These missiles, costing $4 million and taking up to 36 months to build, were often used to shoot down $35,000 Shahed drones that Iran produces at a rate of at least 200 per month.

REVIEWING DEPARTMENT OF WAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY, POLICY, AND PROGRAMS FOR FISCAL YEAR 2027

United States Senate Committee on Armed Services  |  Chris Manning

The U.S. Army is undergoing a generational transformation of its innovation enterprise to dominate in an era of unprecedented technological disruption and Great Power competition.

The Quick and the Dead: How Adaptation in Contact Drives Military Advantage

Hudson Institute  |  Bryan Clark, Dan Patt, Ian Crone

A military force that adapts faster over repeated engagements can decisively defeat one with superior firepower and equipment, a phenomenon increasingly visible on Ukrainian battlefields where military advantage is migrating from what a force possesses to how fast it can learn. This report proposes "Adaptation in Contact"—the deliberate weaponization of the learning cycle—as the next revolution in military affairs, involving operational contact generating data, rapid development of updated tactics and software, and validated changes deploying before adversaries react.

Fighting for Intelligence in Large-Scale Combat Operations: The Role of the Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Battalion–Next

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters  |  Richard Appelhans, Michael Liesmann, B. Clay Jackson, Mikael Heikkinen

The US Army's proposed intelligence and electronic warfare battalion–next (IEW Bn–Next) concept is deemed an essential organizational solution for achieving intelligence dominance in large-scale combat operations (LSCO). This innovative design transcends legacy formations predicated on specific intelligence disciplines, instead offering a functionally oriented, modular, and layered architecture.

Why Soft Power Deserves Some Credit

Eye on China  |  Anushka Saxena

Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) party caucus recently challenged Premier Cho Jung-tai over the operationalization of a labor migration agreement with India, signed in February 2024. This opposition, while partly political theater, highlights significant Taiwanese societal anxieties regarding immigration, particularly concerning the influx of Indian workers into "3K" jobs (dirty, dangerous, demanding). Public sentiment, evidenced by a petition with over 40,000 signatures, expresses concerns about social security, which the KMT leverages by citing Indian crime data to raise security issues. Despite Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator Rosalia Wu's efforts to counter stereotypical arguments, Taiwan's limited immigration experience makes immediate acceptance difficult. For Delhi, the labor MoU alone is insufficient; a large-scale public diplomacy campaign targeting both Taiwanese citizens and policymakers is crucial to ensure Indian workers feel accommodated. While the KMT's opposition appears policy-specific rather than a broader hostility towards India, its "dialogue-over-deterrence" stance with China could indirectly reduce cooperation with India, impacting investments and labor mobility. India's ties with Taiwan have seen significant momentum under the DPP's New Southbound Policy, attracting major Taiwanese companies like Foxconn and PSMC. Delhi must monitor KMT's performance in Taiwan's upcoming 2026 mid-term elections, as a stronger KMT could present a more apathetic actor for India in 2028, potentially hindering institutional interlinkages built with the current DPP administration.

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The Tehran-Delhi Loops: America’s War on Non-Dollar Oil Trade and the Multipolar Challenge

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The early 2026 conflict in the Persian Gulf represents a determined American effort to dismantle parallel financial architectures that have allowed Iran, Russia, China, and India to trade oil and commodities outside the U.S. dollar system. This strategic intervention targets the "Tehran Loop," Iran's resilient shadow network for selling discounted crude to Asian buyers (especially China) via non-dollar payments, hawala, and crypto, with funds layered through Hong Kong and London. Simultaneously, the "Delhi Loop" facilitates India's purchase of discounted Russian oil through rupee-ruble trade via Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SRVAs), with Russia investing surpluses in Indian government securities. The Trump administration responded with 25% tariffs on Indian imports tied to Russian oil purchases and sanctions on Chinese teapot refiners for Iranian oil. China countered by invoking its blocking statute against U.S. extraterritorial sanctions. Washington's overarching goal is to reassert petro-dollar dominance, compel Asian economies to diversify towards American energy, and disrupt emerging de-dollarization mechanisms like BRICS Pay, viewing these non-dollar loops as direct challenges to U.S. financial hegemony.

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India’s Oil Chessboard: Safeguarding India’s Energy Security while defending the Delhi Loop

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

India has emerged as the pivotal battleground in global crude oil trade, with Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and a newly independent United Arab Emirates fiercely competing for dominance. India's oil import dependence, at 88.6 percent and rising, positions it as the world's premier oil demand driver, projected to increase from 5.5 million barrels per day in 2023 to 6.6-6.7 million barrels per day by 2030. Following the February 2022 Ukraine invasion, Russia's share in India's crude imports skyrocketed from 2 percent to approximately 40 percent by mid-2025, reaching $52.73 billion in 2024 sales. This was largely facilitated by the non-dollar Rupee-Rouble "Delhi Loop" settlement mechanism, enabling payments in rupees via Special Rupee Vostro Accounts, bypassing Western sanctions. A February 2026 India-U.S. trade deal included India's pledge to purchase $500 billion worth of U.S. energy and other commodities over five years, aiming to scale U.S. crude and LNG volumes. Despite U.S. pressure, India maintained strategic autonomy, with Russian crude imports surging to 70 million barrels in March 2026 and 2.3 million barrels per day in May mid-2026 after the Iran war and Hormuz closure. The U.S. aims to make India a captive buyer, similar to Europe's reliance on American LNG. India must continue leveraging the Delhi Loop for energy security while diversifying suppliers.

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Air-Conditioning Is in Short Supply as Asia Swelters

NYTIMES | Francesca Regalado, Muktita Suhartono, Saif Hasnat

South and Southeast Asia are experiencing an intense heat wave, with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit, exacerbated by an energy crunch linked to the ongoing war in Iran. This crisis has led to widespread restrictions on air conditioning and electricity use across the region, impacting millions in countries like Bangladesh, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.

The Soda Ash Plant

BRIEF.PK 

Pakistan's most powerful unaccountable body has controversially transferred public resources, specifically water, from a water-scarce district to one of the nation's wealthiest conglomerates. This contentious decision directly benefits Lucky Core Industries, which operates a soda ash plant in Khewra, District Jhelum, a facility that has been operational since 1944.

PRC–Turkmenistan Gas Ties Hedge Hormuz Risk

JAMESTOWN.SUBSTACK | Matthew Johnson

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is strategically intensifying its pursuit of overland energy security through Central Asia, primarily anchored by Turkmenistan, to reduce exposure to maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz amidst escalating Middle East conflicts.

Everything Everywhere All at Once: The Future of U.S. Strategy

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Richard Haass

U.S. foreign policy confronts a complex global environment, requiring simultaneous engagement with great power competition and transnational challenges. The U.S. must address the rise of China and Russia while also tackling climate change, pandemics, nuclear proliferation, and cyber threats, as these issues are interconnected and cannot be prioritized in isolation.

Iran rebuilding military industrial base faster than expected, already producing drones, according to US intel

EDITION | 

Natasha Bertrand

Iran has rapidly restarted drone production during a six-week ceasefire, indicating its military industrial base is reconstituting much faster than US intelligence initially estimated, challenging claims about the long-term degradation from US-Israeli strikes. This swift rebuilding, including missile sites, launchers, and key weapons production capacity, means Iran remains a significant regional threat, particularly if President Donald Trump resumes bombing campaigns.

On Iran, Trump Must Prioritize Hormuz over Nuclear Proliferation

NATIONALINTEREST | Brian G. Chow

The Trump administration should prioritize resolving the immediate Strait of Hormuz maritime crisis over Iran's nuclear program, advocating "sequential decoupling." This strategy involves first securing the strait's reopening to alleviate economic issues, then addressing nuclear disputes.

Saudi Arabia Is Building the Logistics Architecture the Iran War Exposed It Didn’t Have

FRAMETHEGLOBENEWS 

Saudi Arabia is actively developing a new logistics architecture, a strategic response to deficiencies exposed during the "Iran War." This initiative aims to bolster the Kingdom's infrastructure, which was deemed inadequate for wartime demands. Historically, the need for such projects was recognized in 1979, when King Khalid sanctioned the Petroline, the 1,200-kilometre East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, following the Iranian Revolution, which fundamentally reshaped the security of Gulf transit.

Daily Memo: US Support for Europe, Chinese Purchases of American Goods

GEOPOLITICALFUTURES |

The U.S. Pentagon reportedly plans to scale back its troop presence on the European Continent.

AI and the Future of Work: Preliminary Findings

SCSP | Senator Mike Rounds, Senator Mark Warner, Chris Malachowsky, Ylli Bajraktari

The United States stands at a critical juncture regarding artificial intelligence (AI), a general-purpose technology rapidly reshaping the American workforce with unprecedented speed and scope. This preliminary report from the Task Force on AI and the Future of Work assesses AI's profound implications, noting its potential for new discoveries alongside significant challenges to how knowledge, skills, and careers are developed.

Remarks by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby at the National War College (As Prepared)

WAR.GOV 

The United States military, under Secretary Hegseth's direction, is refocusing on its core function of fighting and winning wars, acknowledging a shift from terrorism to interstate strategic competition as the primary national security concern, as recognized by President Trump's 2018 National Defense Strategy. This new era, characterized by major power rivalry under the nuclear shadow, necessitates a military strategy that defends important, non-existential interests against nuclear-armed adversaries while maintaining costs and risks proportionate to American interests.