The Taliban’s transition from insurgency to government in Afghanistan has consolidated territorial control but severely eroded state capacity. While the regime successfully collects domestic revenues reaching 17 percent of GDP, its ideological rigidity systematically dismantles institutional memory and professional expertise, threatening long-term governance, economic viability, and basic public services.
This structural decay stems from a fundamental tension between the ideological preservation demands of Kandahar and the operational realities of Kabul. Consequently, decrees like the exclusion of 2.4 million girls from education act as a multiplier of state weakness, starving the bureaucracy of future specialists. Control is not capacity. Furthermore, the economy remains stagnant as 3.7 million Afghans pushed back from neighboring countries flood a jobless market. Meanwhile, security challenges persist as ISIS-K targets high-profile officials, and ongoing support for the TTP has triggered border clashes with Pakistan, freezing vital trade crossings and escalating regional tensions.