EURASIA GROUP'S TOP RISKS FOR 2026

Source Link

It's a time of great geopolitical uncertainty. Not because there's imminent conflict between the two biggest powers, the United States and China—that isn't even a top risk, it's a red herring this year. There's not (yet, at least) a second Cold War, with a rising China remaking the global system to its own liking, the Americans and allies resisting. Nor do tensions between the United States and Russia threaten to spiral out of control despite a war raging in Europe, the result of Vladimir Putin's longstanding grievances against the US-led order.

The United States is itself unwinding its own global order. The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution.

The Transactional Trap

Michael Brenes

Source Link

The post–World War II order is dead. In its place, countries are fast adopting a values-neutral, transactional approach toward foreign policy. China was the progenitor of this approach to international relations: for over a decade, Beijing has pursued quid pro quo arrangements with countries around the world to create new markets and enhance its economic reach, generating diplomatic ties with both autocratic and democratic states. It has established itself as a great power through a model of state-capitalist economic development that eschews universal human rights or concerns about its trading partners’ system of government. Its lending practices may be

Donald Trump’s Taiwan Stance: Quiet but Strong

Christopher Vassallo

Source Linik

Based on public reports, the National Defense Strategy (NDS)—the congressionally mandated accounting of US defense strategy and its implications for plans, programs, and operations—is nearing release. If so, the broad contours are unlikely to surprise anyone who has read the administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) or listened to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent remarks in December at the Reagan Defense Forum.

Taken together, those signals point toward an NDS built around “hardnosed,” “disciplined,” “flexible,” and “focused” “realism” that prioritizes hemispheric defense while simultaneously advancing a strong but deliberately quiet posture toward Beijing. This is a strategy that, if executed well, could align ends and means more coherently than Biden-era defense documents managed. It is also a strategy that is likely to be tested by a rival whose ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, especially with respect to Taiwan, will not be sated by commercial understandings alone.

Trump strikes Venezuela: Three conclusions for Europe

Carl Bildt

Source Link

On January 3rd 2026, Donald Trump conducted a militarily successful but politically fraught intervention in Venezuela. For Europeans, three conclusions stand out. None are sensational, but all are important.

1. Keep an eye on the western hemisphere

First, the US National Security Strategy’s prioritising of the western hemisphere really applies. This change is profound—it will shape many American policies during the second Trump administration.

At the turn of the 21st century, the security of Europe and the strength of the transatlantic relationship led US security concerns, with the former Soviet Union and later Russia its core focus. A decade ago, however, America started to pivot to Asia as a consequence of the spectacular rise of China, although it still retained attention on Europe. Now, suddenly, the western hemisphere is a distinct priority and Europe is sinking fast on the list of concerns.

2026: The Preview

Sam Freedman

Source Link

Anyone trying to make grand predictions about the future of the world risks looking extremely daft. Famously, few analysts foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Empire until it happened. It was also widely assumed, at the time, that Japan would be the coming power in the 1990s, before its economy went into a nosedive. More recently many thought Russia would quickly overpower Ukraine (though not on this substack). Almost four years on Russia hold less land than they did a few weeks into the conflict.

We start 2026 in a state of geopolitical febrility that’s unusual even for the past few years. Six days in and the capricious narcissist in the White House has already kidnapped Nicolás Maduro and claimed to be running Venezuela, as well as threatening Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, Greenland and Iran.

Who’s Running Venezuela After the Fall of Maduro?

Juan Barreto

Source Link

On Saturday, hours after U.S. troops seized Nicolás Maduro, the authoritarian leader of Venezuela, from a military compound in Caracas, Donald Trump delivered a press conference at Mar-a-Lago. Before it began, a former American official, who had served in the first Trump White House, told me there was a chance that Trump would simply “declare victory and go home.” 

Such a move, at once cynical and dangerous, would be typical of Trump. Maduro’s regime could easily survive without him; if it didn’t, a power vacuum among armed factions of the military, vigilante groups known as colectivos, and Colombian guerrillas operating along the border could unleash untold chaos and violence. “Trump didn’t promise anything,” the former official told me. “He just delivered on a huge win and a total embarrassment for Venezuela, and an important message to others. This victory gives the Administration an opportunity to disengage.”

Regime Change in Venezuela: Like Iraq, But With More Confusion

Paul R. Pillar

Source Link

Two months ago, I recounted the eerie similarities between President Donald Trump’s escalating confrontation with Venezuela and the lead-up to the George W. Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Both involved politicization of intelligence, with the administration making unqualified assertions about a supposed threat while ignoring or denigrating relevant output of the intelligence community. Both exhibited the absence of a policy process that would apply the insights of the national security bureaucracy to all possible ramifications of the coming military action. Both were driven less by specific behavior of the targeted country than by broader ideological or political objectives. Both became a vehicle for the incumbent president to find his footing or bolster domestic support.

If This Is a War for Oil, It Sure is a Dumb One

Greg Priddy

Source Link

For many years, accusations that the United States is fighting a “war for oil” have been a perennial staple of discourse on the shrill Left regarding US military interventions. They also have been wrong.

But unlike both Bush administrations in regard to Iraq, the Trump administration has done little to deny that the desire to gain access to Venezuelan oil reserves on preferential terms was part of the reason to snatch Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas and attempt to subjugate the remnants of the Chavista regime, in part by continuing to control oil exports via a naval quarantine. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio made clear on Face the Nation on Sunday, the United States expects Venezuela to open its mostly state-controlled oil sector to foreign investment, presumably with a strong preference for American companies.

Did The U.S. Use Kamikaze Drones To Strike Venezuela?

Joseph Trevithick

Source Link

Multiple video clips offer strong evidence that kamikaze drones were among the capabilities the U.S. military brought to bear during the operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. This may have been the first real-world use of a new slate of U.S. long-range one-way attack drones and loitering munitions. After years of being outpaced by lower-end drone developments overseas, there is now a significant new push across America’s armed forces, and the special operations community in particular, to dramatically step up the acquisition and fielding of various tiers of uncrewed one-way strike aircraft.

Bystanders on the ground in Venezuela captured various videos of the U.S. assault on Saturday, which was officially dubbed Operation Absolute Resolve. In multiple clips, as seen in the social media post below, distinctly terrorizing high-pitched buzzing can be clearly heard, which are then followed immediately by explosions and/or other visual or auditory signs of munitions impacting the ground, all consistent with the use of one-way attack drones.

The New Arteries of Power

Lynn Kuok

Source Link

In 1893, a few decades after the first transatlantic cable was laid, Rudyard Kipling published a poem about the marvels of “The Deep-Sea Cables.” As communication became nearly instantaneous, Kipling heralded the connectivity that was previously unimaginable, writing, “Let us be one!”

Over a century later, telegraph lines have given way to fiber-optic cables, but their unifying promise has all but faded. The seabed has become an arena of great-power competition, sabotage, and surveillance. Fiber-optic data cables carry 99 percent of transoceanic digital traffic, including financial flows and government, diplomatic, and military communications. But as risks grow and trust erodes, global cabling is splintering into U.S.-led, Chinese-led, and nonaligned blocs, with routes and landings increasingly mirroring geopolitical alignment rather than commercial logic.

Guo Yuandan and Liu Xuanzun

Source Link

Recently, the US launched a military strike against Venezuela and forcibly seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. According to US media reports, the operation began with cyberwarfare. Chinese cybersecurity firm Antiy released a report on Tuesday saying that the US likely conducted cyberattacks to cause widespread power outages, thereby "opening operational channels" for subsequent airstrikes and special operations.

A cybersecurity expert told the Global Times that with its cyberattack capabilities, the US typically aims to gain deep control over other countries' information systems and continuously conduct covert information gathering; during wartime, these capabilities can be converted into battlefield intelligence advantages, enabling attacks on critical infrastructure such as financial and military systems at any time, which could further lead to the collapse and disintegration of societal operations.

After Trump Hits Venezuela, Will China Invade Taiwan?

Gordon G. Chang

Source Link

China has never been more trade-dependent in its history. Xi Jinping's only hope for an economy that is probably contracting is to increase exports. He knows — or should know — that he is in no position to disrupt international commerce.

Xi apparently believes that a high degree of tension is in his personal interest because continual confrontation would prevent political adversaries from challenging or even deposing him.... Any incident, therefore, could spiral out of control.

The United States has treaty obligations to defend two likely victims of Chinese aggression — Japan and the Philippines — and has a moral obligation and many practical reasons to defend Taiwan. As a practical matter, once one country in America's treaty network gets attacked, all countries in the network end up fighting.

Intervening in Venezuela for the Oil Makes Little Sense

Keith Johnson

Source Link

Apparently the U.S. intervention in Venezuela to stop drug trafficking, despite the arrest and arraignment of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on narco-trafficking charges, really was all about the oil.

U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned oil more than two dozen times in his Saturday press conference, and said that the United States would now “run” Venezuela to extract its mineral riches in order to compensate U.S. firms for losses incurred in prior expropriations in the 1970s and 2000s. He told reporters over the weekend on Air Force One that he had consulted with U.S. oil companies—though not Congress—before and after the strikes on Venezuela.

Why ‘Taking’ Venezuela’s Oil Hurts U.S. Energy Security

Jason Bordoff

Source Link

In discussing the dramatic seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, over the weekend, President Donald Trump declared that the United States would now “take back” the country’s oil. Yet he has offered little clarity on what exactly this means.

How the administration answers that question will carry lasting consequences for global oil markets, geopolitics, and the world order—far more significant than any immediate price effects from more Venezuelan supply. If Trump oversees Venezuela’s transition to a transparent democracy that can attract international investment, this could provide needed resources to rebuild the country and help ease energy prices over the long run. If, however, he seeks to impose a mercantilist model in pursuit of short-term financial gain, he will undermine the global energy market on which U.S. security depends.

Trump, the US and a Blackout: What Cut Off Venezuela's Grid?Experts Say Grid

Chris Riotta

Source Link

Cybersecurity and national security analysts remain confounded by a power outage in Caracas tied to a late-night U.S. operation against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, unsure whether U.S. forces blended cyber and kinetic operations to pull off the capture.

Public statements since the operation have offered little clarity on what caused the outage or whether its intention was to aid U.S. forces during the late-night raid. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff John Daniel Caine said in a press briefing the U.S. layered effects from multiple commands, including Space Command and Cyber Command, without detailing their specific roles (see: US Action in Venezuela Provokes Cyberattack Speculation).

Over 150 warplanes and a secret drone: the air power behind Maduro’s bold capture

Source Link

US deployed over 150 aircraft, stealth drones and cyber units in operation to capture Venezuelan president, using F-35s, bombers and a controversial 'blackout bomb' to disable Venezuela’s defenses and plunge Caracas into darkness

Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appeared in a New York courtroom for the first time Monday night, days after he was captured in a dramatic U.S. military operation. Brought into the courtroom in shackles, Maduro identified himself in Spanish, declaring: “I am the President of the Republic of Venezuela. I was kidnapped. I am innocent.”

Maduro’s capture reflects growing role of cyberattacks and satellites in warfare

PIPPA NORMAN

Source Link

Just before U.S. forces invaded the home of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday morning, the lights in the country’s capital city, Caracas, went dark.

This was one of several non-kinetic effects, or non-physical modes of warfare such as cyber and space, that the U.S. military employed in an overnight strike to capture Mr. Maduro and his wife at their compound.

It’s also an example of the growing role of space-based assets in defence, and the willingness of major military powers to use tools such as satellites to disrupt or disable the critical infrastructure of their adversaries.

The Cost of Europe’s Weak Venezuela Response

Rosa Balfour

Source Link

The United States violated both international and domestic law with the abduction of Venezuela’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro. The operation, following months of bombardments against small vessels in the Caribbean Sea, starkly shows that the erosion of democracy at home and the rules-based order are two sides of the same coin.

International law has always been fragile, selectively applied, and reflective of power and interests, not just norms and ideals. Even an imperfect application of these principles requires the support of democratic states and international institutions. Yet most European responses to U.S. action have failed to offer that necessary defense.

The 3 Keys to Understanding Trump’s Retro Coup in Venezuela

Garrett M. Graff

Source Link

Donald Trump is hardly the first US president to look south and conquer. Over the last century, no fewer than a dozen of Trump’s predecessors embraced the belief that democracy and profit in Latin America were only one successful coup d’état away. But the particular strain of imperial ambition that Trump appears to have set loose with this weekend’s raid in Venezuela appears simultaneously to be deeply atavistic and uniquely Trumpian. And it’s one that doesn’t look set to die down anytime soon.

It took only a few hours, following the US military’s daring seizure of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, for Trump’s rationale to shift from hand-waving about democracy and fighting narcotics toward taking control of that nation’s vast oil reserves. “We’re in charge,” Trump told reporters. “We’re going to run everything. We’re going to run it—fix it.” And even before Maduro appeared in a New York City courtroom Monday, Trump had begun to celebrate what he’s calling his “Donroe Doctrine,” explicitly threatening a half-dozen other nations, from Colombia and Cuba to Mexico and Denmark’s Greenland, in a talk with reporters on Air Force One on Sunday.

What Just Happened in Venezuela? And What Comes Next?

Source Link

Ryan C. Berg: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this event, “What Just Happened in Venezuela? And What Comes Next?” My name is Ryan Berg. I’m the director of the Americas Program here at CSIS. I also head our Future of Venezuela Initiative. In fact, that’s what we’re here to talk about this morning.

What is the future of Venezuela after the early morning hours of Saturday this past weekend, when the United States launched an extraordinary attack, Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing the erstwhile dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife from his compound and bringing him to the United States to serve justice on the 2020 indictment out of the Southern District Court of New York. There are so many things to unpack in the unfolding situation in Venezuela, from the geopolitics of it all to what’s going on on the ground in Venezuela. And of course, what exactly happened in those early morning hours of Saturday in the operation itself.

The United States Cannot Go It Alone in Venezuela

Jon B. Alterman

Source Link

“Weak nations,” the late Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote in 1990, “will hope that strong nations will be law-abiding.” Moynihan was no apologist for weak nations. An avowed Cold Warrior whose political career was grounded in his loud and unsuccessful opposition to a 1975 UN resolution that equated Zionism with racism, he entitled his memoir of his time as UN ambassador A Dangerous Place. Even so, Moynihan would have been deeply alarmed at U.S. actions in Venezuela last weekend.

His alarm would not have come from any sympathy for Maduro or his ruling clique, nor any embarrassment at a display of U.S. power. In fact, he would have taken pride that the weekend’s events in Venezuela once again made clear that the United States has capabilities—military, intelligence, and otherwise—that other countries can only dream about. Instead, his alarm would have come from how U.S. adversaries and allies alike are likely to respond over the long term, and the dangers of the United States going it alone.

Is Venezuela a Critical Minerals Target?

Gracelin Baskaran

Source Link

On December 25, 1956, the New York Times declared, “Venezuela Finds Big Ore Deposits; Geologists Assert Reserves of Minerals May Approach Nation’s Oil in Importance.” Nearly seven decades later, that promise has largely gone unrealized. Far from emerging as a major global mining power, Venezuela’s mineral sector has remained marginal, fragmented, and chronically underdeveloped.

In early January 2026, the United States carried out strikes in Venezuela and detained President Nicolás Maduro, with President Trump stating that the United States would temporarily “run” the country pending a political transition. Given the central role of natural resources in Venezuela’s economy—and President Trump’s explicit focus on Venezuelan oil—this moment invites a broader question. Beyond hydrocarbons, what role do Venezuela’s mineral resources play, and do they present any strategic interest for the United States? Understanding Venezuela’s mineral endowment and the constraints on its development is essential to assessing whether minerals meaningfully factor into U.S. strategic calculations or remain largely peripheral, despite its long-standing geological potential.

The Maduro Extraction: A Masterclass In American Lethality

Lily Ong

Source Link

At approximately 0201 local time on January 3, America’s Delta Force, with support from the CIA and FBI, raided the Fuerte Tiuna military complex in Caracas, where Maduro and his wife were dashing for their heavily fortified “safe room” reinforced by steel. Although prepared to melt the door in 47 seconds with heavy-duty thermal cutters, the American commandos were so fast they intercepted and seized the couple in a “bum-rush” capture to render their blowtorches needless. By 0430, like human cargo on a terminal descent, Maduro and his wife were delivered onto US soil at Stewart Air National Guard Base in New York.

One does not have to agree with America’s decision to capture Maduro to marvel at the precision with which the operation was conducted. The capture—an escalation of a months-long military buildup and blockade known as Operation Southern Spear that culminated in a decapitation strike known as Operation Absolute Resolve—is an event worth examining and note-taking by military strategists due to the surgical precision with which it was conducted.

Air Force says AI tools outperform human planners in ‘battle management’ experiment

Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

Source Link

WASHINGTON — It’s not Skynet, yet, but in an Air Force experiment artificial intelligence tools managed to out-perform human professionals in a key piece of planning military operations, service officials recently revealed.

In the service’s latest “DASH” experiment this past fall, the Air Force pitted AI tools from half a dozen companies against military personnel from the US, Canada and UK and asked each to solve hypothetical “battle management” problems, from standard Air Force tasks like planning an airstrike or rerouting aircraft whose home base had been damaged, to more obscure scenarios like gathering intelligence on an anomalous electromagnetic signal or protecting a disabled and drifting Navy vessel.

An Even Better Trump Solution for Gaza

Khaled Abu Toameh

Source Link

The Arab and Muslim countries, including Pakistan, will not disarm Hamas.

Pakistan -- which does not recognize Israel and does not regard Hamas as a terrorist organization –- was the first country to recognize Iran's Khomeini regime in 1979, just as, in 1947, Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan's independence. Since then, not only has Pakistan had far closer relations with Iran than with Israel, but, after the Gaza War in 2023, has repeatedly called for Muslim nations to "unite against Israel."

Meanwhile, it is simply not realistic to assume that the Palestinian terror groups will voluntarily hand over their weapons.

These Arab and Muslim heads of state will only take action against Islamist terrorists when they pose a threat to their regimes, security and stability.

Afghanistan’s Post Opium Drug Trade – Another Challenge for Pakistan?

Qurat-UL-Ain Shabbir

Source Link

The Pakistan Navy ship Yarmook seized two dhow sailing boats in the Arabian Sea on 27 October, carrying for about 2.5 tons of crystal methamphetamine, also known as Ice, and 50 kg of cocaine. It was one of the largest drug seizures in maritime history, with the haul estimated to be valued at a staggering 972 million dollars. Besides the sheer magnitude of these numbers, there is an underlying reality that is more disturbing: a booming regional drug economy that is becoming increasingly rooted in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has long been the center of the international drug trade. Its drug economy generates billions of dollars every year which are then used to fuel terrorism, transnational organized crime and cross border militancy. Afghanistan was producing about 80-90% of the world’s opium, making it the largest producer globally before 2022. Over time, Afghanistan’s southern and eastern regions, long known as hotbeds of militancy and centers of opium cultivation, have also emerged as significant producers of methamphetamine. The ephedra plant is used for meth production and is found in abundance in the Afghan mountains. As per a UNODC report a surge in methamphetamine trafficking has been noted in recent years from Afghanistan to neighboring countries.

The Top 10 Global Risks for 2026

Ian Bremmer

Source Link

2026 is a tipping point year.

That’s not because we should expect a coming confrontation between the two biggest powers, the U.S. and China. Nor are tensions between the U.S. and Russia likely to spiral out of control this year. Instead, 2026 looks set to be a time of great geopolitical uncertainty, because the U.S. is unwinding its own global order.

What began as tactical norm-breaking has become a system-level transformation: President Donald Trump’s attempt to systematically dismantle the checks on his power, capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his domestic enemies. With many of the guardrails that held in Trump’s first term now buckling, we can no longer say with confidence what kind of political system the U.S. will be when this revolution is over. Ultimately, the revolution is more likely to fail than succeed, but there will be no going back to the status quo. The U.S. will be the principal source of global risk this year.

Exclusive: Closer look at new Chinese structures near Pangong Lake and what they mean

Ankit Kumar

Source Link

New high-resolution satellite imagery sourced by India Today shows China continuing to upgrade its permanent military presence in the disputed Eastern Ladakh region of Pangong Tso. China has controlled this position near the Sirijap post since the 1962 war, when it was lost from India’s control, though India continues to consider it part of its territory. The imagery clearly shows construction work on a new complex with multiple permanent structures coming up only meters away from the water body.

This is significant as it could allow China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to station more resources closer to the current buffer zone

Tehran’s Moment of Reckoning

Aviva Klompas

Source Link

The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces this weekend was not merely a Venezuela story. It was a message to Tehran.

For years, American foreign policy has been defined less by enforcement than by signaling. Warnings were issued, deadlines announced, negotiations perpetually extended, and consequences endlessly deferred. President Trump appears determined to reverse that pattern.

The operation against Venezuela made one thing unmistakably clear: Trump expects to be taken seriously.

That matters most for Iran, which has spent years betting that U.S. threats are rhetorical, reversible, or constrained by fear of escalation. That bet is beginning to look reckless.

Trump NSS Reshapes US Engagement in the South Caucasus

Aytac Mahmmadova

Source Link

The South Caucasus has long occupied an ambiguous place in US foreign policy, neither central to US national security nor irrelevant to it. The region has historically mattered insofar as it intersected with larger geopolitical contests: between Russia and the West, between energy producers and consumers, and between stability and fragmentation along Eurasia’s inner frontier. The 2025 US National Security Strategy codifies a shift that will sharpen this logic, moving the United States decisively away from expansive regional engagement toward selective, interest-driven involvement.

While the document does not explicitly address the South Caucasus in its regional sections, its underlying principles, such as restraint, burden-sharing, transactionalism, and rejection of transformational agendas, will fundamentally reshape Washington’s engagement with the South Caucasus states. This recalibration reflects broader strategic realities: finite American resources, diminished appetite for open-ended commitments, and recognition that regional outcomes will ultimately be determined by local power dynamics rather than external patronage.

Europe's last hope in the AI race

Bernardo Kastrup

Source Link

The global AI boom is built on staggering inefficiency: repurposed videogame chips, vast energy waste, and escalating costs. While the US and China race blindly ahead, philosopher of mind and the Founder and CEO at Euclyd, a Dutch company developing chips and systems for core AI datacentre compute, Bernardo Kastrup, argues that Europe has an overlooked opportunity to redesign AI hardware itself, and in doing so reclaim technological sovereignty.

As a philosopher of mind and computer engineer, AI is the one topic that connects both of my professional aspirations. And since this powerful new technology is bound to shape the future of civilization, either supporting or undermining our ways of life, the survival of European values so consistent with my own idealist views—such as personal liberty, liberal democracy, human rights, equality of opportunity, consumer protections, distribution of power, etc.—will largely depend on how we manage the ongoing technological transition. To ensure the survival of its way of life, Europe must thus have the means to control the deployment of AI in its territory, so it happens on our terms.

The $20 Trillion Question: How to Spend It and How Not To

William Murray

Source Link

$20 trillion is a lot of money.

One would expect a big bang to follow the spending of twenty-thousand billion dollars. It’s a lot of money! It’s pretty much the total present value of America’s GDP.

This is the sum that was globally spent — largely by Europe and the United States — in a coordinated effort by the developed world to decarbonize the global economy. China, in contrast, sold the world windmills and solar panels while it opened a new coal-fired power plant per month.

What was the net effect of this “Green" Marshall Plan? Hydrocarbon consumption continued to increase anyway. All that was achieved was a tiny reduction, just 2%, in the share of overall energy supplied by hydrocarbons. Put simply, as the energy pie got bigger and all forms of energy supply increased, hydrocarbons ended up with a slightly smaller share of a larger pie.

The U.S. Captures Maduro: Deterrence, Legitimacy, and What Comes Next?

Brigham A. McCown

Source Link

The United States has used force abroad when it has judged its security or strategic influence to be at risk, particularly in regions it considers vital to its interests. The military operation that apprehended Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela fits this pattern, reasserting deterrence in response to Washington’s diminished influence in its own hemisphere. But the administration’s ultimate success depends on returning Venezuela to the path of democracy without getting bogged down in another doomed nation-building project.

Much of the initial commentary has focused on oil markets or alleged violations of the War Powers Resolution. But since the resolution’s enactment in 1973, presidents of both parties have authorized limited military actions without congressional authorization when they judged core U.S. interests to be at stake. Action against the Maduro regime reflects a broad, if sometimes understated, bipartisan concern. Congress should now be fully briefed and engaged in its proper oversight role.

The Maduro Raid: A Military Victory with No Viable Endgame

Mark F. Cancian

Source Link

The capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife has electrified the world and generated immense discussion about its impact on the future. In thinking about that future, it’s important to separate the military, political, economic, and legal strands. The military operation was brilliantly executed. However, this was a raid, which means that all U.S. forces withdrew. Maduro’s officials, including his vice president, remain in charge of Venezuela. The Trump administration proposes to work through these officials, not through the Venezuelan opposition. This will likely fail, requiring additional air and missile strikes. President Trump wants a revival of oil production, but stability is a prerequisite. In the background, the courts will decide the constitutional issues raised by this operation. Those decisions will shape future U.S. operations but will have little effect on the situation in Venezuela.

A Brilliant Military Operation

At the January 3 press conference, President Trump and other administration officials were effusive in their praise for the operation and the service members who conducted it. Many observers tend to discount the president’s exaggerated rhetoric, but in this case, it was appropriate. This raid will likely be regarded as one of the classics in military history.

The Maduro Raid: Early Reports & Cautions

Salamander

Source Link

If you didn’t get a chance to listen to Sunday’s Midrats Podcast with Mark and me, give it a listen to hear a broader discussion with some additional detail thrown in. Today is going to be a bit different.

We are still just ~72-hours from the events, so there is an order of magnitude more of what we don’t know than we do, but some items are breaking out from the fog.

On yesterday’s podcast, I briefly mentioned a framework for discussion that I think is helpful to flesh out here—an addendum to my comments on the podcast, so to speak.

As we stand here the Monday after the events of Friday night/Saturday morning, what are some clear items of consideration at the Tactical, Operational, Strategic, and Political levels?