Needed: Robot warriors for three domains

The New Indian Express  |  Air Vice Marshal Anil Golani (Retd)

India's military strategy requires a significant re-evaluation of its investment in unmanned combat systems, moving beyond the current disproportionate focus on aerial drones to include land and sea domains. While the Indian Air Force (IAF) has extensive institutional knowledge and experience with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) since inducting the IAI Harpy in 1999, the Army and Navy have sub-optimally channeled their resources into UAS rather than developing their own domain-specific unmanned ground and sea systems. The article highlights that the 'countermeasure holiday' for drones is over, with effective interceptors like Sting and laser defenses now operational. Applying the economic principle of 'comparative advantage,' the author advocates for each service to specialize in its core domain for unmanned system development, leveraging the IAF's expertise for air systems while the Army and Navy build capabilities for land and sea. Failure to diversify unmanned system development across all three domains risks creating a strategic gap with adversaries, emphasizing that doctrine, training, and operational experience are more critical than mere equipment acquisition.

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Unseen Perils of US Alignment: Safeguarding India’s Strategic Autonomy in a Fractured Global Order

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

India's strategic autonomy faces significant perils from its increasing alignment with the United States, particularly concerning energy security and economic stability in a fractured global order. The article argues that most Indian experts overlook Russia's role as a global commodity backbone and China's as a manufacturing hub, which together underwrote decades of low-inflationary global economics. The Ukraine war and the 2026 Iran conflict, exacerbated by US-Israeli actions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have shattered this consensus, exposing India's vulnerability to rising energy and input costs critical for its "Make in India" initiative. Washington is strategically leveraging these crises, deploying conditional waivers for Russian oil, sanctions, and trade deals to compel India into dependence on more expensive American LNG and arms, mirroring Europe's costly shift away from Russian gas. This broader US playbook aims to subordinate India's foreign policy, integrate it into American supply chains, and position it as a frontline node against China, ultimately eroding India's strategic independence and economic competitiveness. Refusal to comply risks tariffs and destabilization, while compliance means forfeiting strategic independence.

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The Island-Chain Allies

The Wire China | Chris Horton

The Philippines and Japan are significantly deepening their defense cooperation, as evidenced by the Balikatan 2026 military exercises where Japanese troops for the first time sank a foreign naval vessel in Philippine waters. These exercises, held near northern Luzon and the Bashi Channel, involved 17,000 troops from seven nations, including the U.S., Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand, with Japan's contingent swelling to 1,400. This enhanced interoperability and coordination among "First Island Chain" democracies—Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan (which sent observers)—aims to deter an increasingly belligerent China, especially concerning a potential Taiwan contingency. Key developments include the 2024 trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines, and the subsequent Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) and Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) between Tokyo and Manila. These agreements establish a legal and logistical framework for mutual troop deployment and sustainment, transforming the northern Philippines and southwestern Japanese islands into a single, mutually supporting operational space. This "quasi-alliance structure" markedly shifts deterrence calculus by enabling coordinated action independent of immediate U.S. intervention, complicating PLA planning and widening the geographic scope of potential conflict.

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Hellscape Defense in Taiwan: Would It Work?

Modern War Institute  |  Wes Hutto

Taiwan's proposed "hellscape" defense strategy, championed by Admiral Samuel Paparo, envisions saturating the Taiwan Strait with low-cost, uninhabited aerial and maritime systems to deter or attrit a Chinese invasion. Operationally, this multi-layered robotic defense would target invading forces from eighty kilometers out to the beaches, employing long-range drones, anti-ship missiles, sea mines, and short-range FPV drones at landing zones. However, the strategy faces significant political and organizational hurdles. Taiwan's military is unlikely to fundamentally retool its force structure from traditional "exquisite" capabilities (e.g., F-16s, submarines) to a massive drone arsenal, primarily due to sovereignty considerations and established military professionalism, unless US security guarantees are completely withdrawn. Furthermore, public confidence, essential for potential insurgency, is linked to perceived military capabilities, and a shift to a "hellscape" might erode this. Politically, the strategy requires broad public consensus and approval from Taiwan's civilian government, which is improbable given current political polarization and the societal implications of transforming the island into a "garrison state."

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The Thucydides Trap, Xi Jinping, and America’s Strategic Blind Spot

LinkedIn  |  Ken Robinson

Chinese President Xi Jinping strategically invoked the "Thucydides Trap" during a summit with then-President Trump, signaling China's demand for recognition as a coequal civilization-state and warning against escalating confrontation. This deliberate act was not merely diplomatic theater but a profound message to the American national-security establishment, underscoring China's long-term strategic thinking, which operates on dynastic timelines rather than short-term political or economic cycles. Beijing demonstrated its capacity to absorb economic damage from tariffs and retaliate by restricting critical rare earth exports, asserting its status as a peer competitor capable of imposing reciprocal costs. Xi's subsequent pivot to conciliation represents strategic sequencing, a calibrated approach to diplomacy that applies pressure, absorbs friction, and then offers stability once leverage is established. The article highlights a fundamental misunderstanding in the West regarding China's structural, rather than emotional, interpretation of diplomacy, framing the competition as one rooted in strategic culture and the architecture of the 21st-century global order.

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Why China Is Now a Peer Competitor to the United States in Cyberspace

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Nikita Shah

China has systematically evolved its cyber capabilities over the past 15 years, establishing itself as a peer competitor to the United States in cyberspace, surpassing other adversaries. Utilizing a "whole-of-society" approach, China demonstrates sophistication in targeting and persistence, deeply penetrating U.S. critical infrastructure and public sector systems, including the U.S. Treasury and military installations. Campaigns like Salt Typhoon and Volt Typhoon highlight advanced technical capabilities, potentially leveraging large language models for precise targeting and even developing scalable AI tooling superior to U.S. counterparts, such as a version of Mythos Preview. The scale of China's talent pipeline, cultivated through competitions, universities, and research institutes, feeds hundreds of thousands into state institutions like the MSS and PLA. This is amplified by a private sector compelled to supply zero-day vulnerabilities, creating an agile offensive cyber supply chain. China's stealthy tactics, including targeting edge devices, living-off-the-land techniques, cloud environment exploitation, and widespread use of covert networks, make attribution and defense challenging. Strategically, China's clear intent, anchored in plans like "Made in China 2025" and its 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasts with perceived U.S. strategic ambiguity. The article suggests the U.S. must seize the post-Trump Beijing visit window to reinvigorate its cyber strategy, reverse agency cuts, and publish an implementation plan to re-establish superiority, moving beyond failed deterrence models.

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After Trump-Xi Summit, Taiwan Breathes a Sigh of Relief

The Diplomat  |  Brian Hioe

Taiwan breathed a sigh of relief following the May 13-15 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as initial fears of a "grand bargain" that would compromise Taiwan's security did not materialize. Prior to the summit, concerns were high that Trump might negotiate U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with Beijing, potentially violating the long-standing Six Assurances, or adopt a stance against Taiwanese independence. The Trump administration had notably stalled a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan, prompting bipartisan calls from U.S. senators for its approval. Additionally, there were apprehensions that Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li-wun's planned visit to the U.S. could lead to reduced American commitments to Taiwan. However, the summit concluded without any new deals announced regarding Taiwan, and the U.S. and Chinese readouts even diverged on the issue, indicating no explicit concessions. Despite the immediate relief, Taiwan remains awaiting Trump's approval of the delayed arms package, highlighting ongoing strategic uncertainties in cross-strait relations.

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US shows Taiwan non-negotiable: analysts

Taipei Times

The White House's deliberate omission of Taiwan from its official summary of talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping signals Washington's view that Taiwan is not a negotiable issue, according to analysts. During Trump's state visit to China, the two sides' summaries diverged sharply; China's Xinhua news agency emphasized Xi's warning that Taiwan is "the most important issue" and mishandling it could lead to "clashes and even conflicts," while the US summary focused on economic cooperation and Iran. This reflects differing messaging strategies and a fundamental "gap in interpretation" regarding the US' "one China" policy. While the US does not support Taiwanese independence, it maintains security cooperation and arms sales to prevent Taipei from negotiating under duress, a stance Beijing views as encouraging independence. Analysts suggest the US omission itself conveys non-negotiability, advising Taiwan to focus on long-term strategic value and shared interests with the US, remaining alert to subtle shifts despite policy reaffirmations. The summit highlighted Beijing's attempt to frame Taiwan as central to "constructive strategic stability," with experts noting "stability never equals peace, and silence never equals commitment."

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PRC in International Organizations

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's publication, "PRC Representation in International Organizations," meticulously identifies Chinese nationals holding top leadership positions across a wide array of international governmental organizations as of April 23, 2026. This comprehensive document details Chinese heads within UN Principal Organs, UN Funds and Programs, UN Specialized Agencies, other UN entities, international trade and financial institutions, and various other international bodies. The Commission undertakes this research to fulfill its legislative mandate, specifically to monitor and assess the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The ongoing tracking of China's increasing presence in global governance structures underscores a strategic concern regarding Beijing's expanding influence and its potential impact on international norms and decision-making processes. The data will be updated annually, reflecting the dynamic nature of this geopolitical development.

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Why China Waits: Beijing Is Playing a Long Game on Taiwan

Foreign Affairs | Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie S. Glaser

China is pursuing a long-term strategy for unification with Taiwan, predicated on the belief that time and a shifting balance of power favor Beijing. Rather than an imminent military invasion, China seeks to compel Taiwan's capitulation at the lowest possible cost, leveraging its growing military and economic capabilities to deter U.S. intervention. Beijing perceives its rise and Western democratic dysfunction as reinforcing its position, despite internal economic challenges. It actively employs legal, economic, military, and diplomatic pressure, noting declining independence sentiment among Taiwan's youth and the increasing influence of pro-unification opposition parties like the Kuomintang (KMT). Furthermore, China assesses that U.S. commitments to Taiwan are eroding, citing ambivalent statements from figures like Donald Trump and concerns over semiconductor dependence. This patient approach aims to deepen Taiwan's economic and social integration through "integrated development" while continuously constraining Taipei's policy space, ultimately shaping conditions for unification on Beijing's terms without a costly conflict.

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UFO documents released by Pentagon describe floating objects and flashes of light

BBC  |  Sakshi Venkatraman, Rebecka Pieder

The Pentagon recently declassified and released 161 documents concerning Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), now referred to as Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), following a directive from US President Donald Trump. These files, spanning decades, detail reported sightings by both civilians and Apollo astronauts, including descriptions of inexplicable phenomena such as floating objects, flashes of light, and particles "sailing off in space." Notably, the release includes video clips from 2022 taken by the US military in Iraq, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates, showing "unresolved unidentified anomalous phenomenon," with one oval-shaped object flagged as a "possible missile." This move reflects a renewed public and congressional interest in extraterrestrial life and government transparency on the matter, with some lawmakers welcoming it as a "great start" while others dismiss it as a distraction from more pressing national issues.

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What Makes Trump’s New Counterterrorism Strategy So Alarming

Foreign Policy |  Colin P. Clarke, Clara Broekaert

The Trump administration's recently unveiled counterterrorism strategy is deemed alarming due to critical omissions in its threat assessment. The most significant concern centers on the specific terrorist threats conspicuously absent from the official document. This strategic oversight implies a potential reorientation of U.S. counterterrorism priorities or a deliberate downplaying of certain dangers, which could have substantial implications for national security and global stability. Such a strategy risks leaving the United States and its international partners unprepared for evolving threats not explicitly acknowledged, potentially necessitating a re-evaluation of intelligence gathering, resource allocation, and operational focus. The perceived selective nature of the strategy's threat identification could also signal a broader doctrinal shift in the U.S. approach to combating terrorism, potentially impacting existing alliances and international cooperation frameworks that rely on a comprehensive understanding of the global threat landscape.

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Can Corporate America Protect Democracy? In the Trump Era, CEOs Need to Define Redlines

Foreign Affairs | Georgia Levenson Keohane

The Trump administration's actions, including attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, dismissal of statistical commissioners, and assaults on higher education and independent media, pose fundamental systemic risks to the United States' democratic and economic foundations. While corporate America previously embraced stakeholder capitalism and took stands on social issues, the current era is marked by a concerning silence from business leaders, driven by a fear of provoking the president's ire. This quiescence, despite the erosion of the rule of law, compromised agency independence, and attacks on knowledge dissemination, imperils not only the broader system but also corporate bottom lines. The article argues that executives must differentiate commercial concerns from systemic threats, coordinate to define "redlines," and prepare concerted responses to defend the laws, norms, and institutions essential for a stable commercial and civic life, as exemplified by the rare unified advocacy for the Fed's independence during the Trump era in the United States.

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Can Trump Get a New Nuclear Deal With Iran? Washington Has More Demands—and Tehran Has More Leverage

Foreign Affairs  |  Swanson, Sharp

The United States' ongoing conflict with Iran has seen President Trump struggle to define clear objectives, frequently emphasizing the need to roll back Tehran's nuclear program despite its advancements since the 2018 JCPOA withdrawal. Iran has significantly improved its centrifuge technology and installation speed, reducing its nuclear breakout time to approximately six months, even after U.S.-Israeli strikes. Critical gaps in international inspectors' knowledge persist regarding potential covert facilities and weaponization activities, exacerbated by Iran halting IAEA cooperation following the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. A new nuclear deal, therefore, must extend beyond merely addressing uranium enrichment and stockpiles. It requires renewed implementation of the Additional Protocol, comprehensive accounting of centrifuges produced since 2021, and verifiable information on non-nuclear research with potential weapons applications, including access to military sites. While a robust nuclear agreement is essential, it remains insufficient to address Iran's broader strategic threats, such as its missile program and control over the Strait of Hormuz, necessitating a comprehensive approach.

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How Europe Found Its Nerve: Trump’s Overreach Has Finally Forged Continental Unity

Foreign Affairs | Matthias Matthijs and Nathalie Tocci

Donald Trump's second term, marked by aggressive policies like threatening Greenland, withdrawing support for Ukraine, and instigating an Iran war, has inadvertently galvanized European unity and accelerated its pursuit of strategic autonomy. Initially, European nations attempted appeasement, but Trump's escalating overreach, including a surgical strike on Venezuela and insults to the Pope, made him politically toxic among most European voters. This shift prompted Europe to enhance its collective defense, exemplified by joint military exercises in Greenland and increased financial and military aid to Ukraine, despite initial far-right opposition. The EU is also rebuilding its defense industrial base with a $175 billion financing program and actively forging new trade agreements with partners like India, Australia, and Mercosur to reduce dependence on the United States and mitigate Chinese coercion. Furthermore, the Iran war-induced energy crisis has underscored the security imperative of accelerating Europe's clean energy transition, leading to policy changes aimed at making electricity cheaper than fossil fuels.

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Moscow’s views of the war of tomorrow

NATO Defense College  |  Andrew Monaghan

Russia's strategic outlook on "tomorrow's war" fundamentally diverges from NATO's, anticipating a large-scale global confrontation driven by geoeconomic factors and U.S. instability rather than a localized European conflict. Moscow's primary concern is a U.S.-led "21st-century blitzkrieg," characterized by coordinated missile strikes and highly mobile, multi-domain forces, with a significant focus on maritime threats. In response, Russia is actively preparing for full mobilization warfare, which includes modernizing its nuclear triad, reconstituting large ground formations, and deeply integrating its armed forces into the national socioeconomic structure. Despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's formal military doctrine remains largely unchanged, with adaptations primarily tactical rather than strategic, indicating a consistent long-term view of future conflict, as detailed in the Future Series publication.

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The Root of Today’s Global Imbalances

Project Syndicate  |  Lee Jong-Wha

Global economic imbalances are re-emerging as a significant concern, driven primarily by domestic saving-investment dynamics and the complex interplay of geopolitical rivalry, technological competition, and international capital flows. The United States is currently experiencing substantial current-account deficits, while China has returned to considerable surpluses, mirroring patterns that historically precede economic instability. These persistent imbalances, which are again dominating international economic debates, pose serious risks, including abrupt capital-flow reversals, heightened exchange-rate volatility, and the potential for increased geopolitical conflict. The article warns that without coordinated international action to proactively manage these associated risks, the world faces the danger of these tensions escalating into another global economic crisis, similar to the 2008 financial meltdown. Effective global cooperation is essential to prevent severe economic disruptions and maintain stability in the international financial system.

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Ukraine’s drone war gives Kyiv new hope as Russian assaults bog down

The Washington Times  |  Guillaume Ptak

Ukraine's military has dramatically replenished its optimism, effectively halting Russia's spring offensive through the widespread and innovative deployment of drones. A critical "kill zone," initially 20 kilometers deep, is expanding as midrange strike drones extend precision strikes, rendering Russian vehicle operations ineffective. Drones now execute over 80% of battlefield strikes, fundamentally reshaping warfare doctrine from artillery-centric engagements. This technological advantage, supported by a rapid defense innovation ecosystem, allows Ukrainian units to quickly destroy Russian armored vehicles and conduct deeper strikes against logistics, command posts, and even Russian drone teams. Ukrainian forces are constantly adapting drone capabilities, extending ranges and integrating AI for enhanced targeting and electronic warfare resistance. Despite Russia's superior manpower and industrial base, Kyiv's drone strategy has significantly improved its defensive posture and fostered a cautious outlook for limited counter-advances. However, challenges persist, including infantry exhaustion and a heavy reliance on volunteer support for critical drone procurement, as official supply channels meet only a fraction of operational needs.

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May Day: The Energy Wars and the evolution of Multi-Polar World Order

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The 2026 global energy crisis, triggered by escalating conflicts in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has compelled numerous nations to implement stringent energy conservation measures, reminiscent of the COVID era. Amidst this, significant geopolitical realignments are unfolding, highlighted by the BRICS Foreign Ministers' meeting in New Delhi where Russia assured India of stable energy supplies and Iran condemned US-Israeli aggression, framing the US as a declining hegemon. Concurrently, US President Trump's visit to China saw President Xi Jinping assert Taiwan as a critical red line while advocating for cooperation to avoid the Thucydides Trap. The article details the precarious state of global oil markets, with US Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels plummeting and the impending expiration of the Russian oil sanction waiver threatening further supply disruptions. This complex scenario underscores a broader "energy war" where the US seeks to maintain petrodollar hegemony by undermining cheap Russian, Gulf, and Iranian energy, while emerging powers like China and a diversifying Saudi Arabia challenge this dominance.

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Quantum computing: A tech race Europe could win?

BBC  |  John Laurenson

Europe is positioning itself to become a significant contender in the global quantum computing race, with France emerging as a key player through companies like Alice & Bob. This French startup is developing "cat qubits" designed for autonomous error correction, a novel approach that theoretically reduces complexity and cost compared to rivals relying on massive redundancy. The strategic implications of quantum computing are vast, promising to revolutionize fields such as medicine by enabling the simulation of molecular interactions currently intractable for classical computers, leading to a potential "winner-takes-all" market. France's strong physics education, evidenced by recent Nobel laureates, and government initiatives like the PROQCIMA program, provide a robust foundation. While Europe missed previous tech revolutions, there is a strong belief that its current scientific prowess and capital investment could secure a leading position in this critical technological domain, fostering economic autonomy and global competitiveness.

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Fewer Bots, More Ads: The Pentagon’s Evolving Online Influence Campaigns

Lawfaremedia | Renée DiResta

The Pentagon's online influence campaigns have significantly evolved from relying on coordinated inauthentic behavior and fake personas to a sophisticated media-buy strategy utilizing paid advertising on major platforms. Following the embarrassing 2022 Unheard Voice report, which exposed largely unsuccessful operations involving AI-generated profiles and bot farms, a new "gc_" generation of websites emerged in 2023. These sites, including Al-Fassel, Pishtaz News, and Entorno Diario, target diverse audiences in regions like the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia with content that is largely factually supportable, though strategically framed to advance U.S. narratives. General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT), the original contractor for the 2008 Trans-Regional Web Initiative, is actively running ads for these sites, generating tens of millions of views and demonstrating a shift towards distributing state-funded, journalism-like content through commercial ad infrastructure, aiming for authentic reactions from purchased reach. This evolution mitigates the risk of undermining U.S. credibility through overt manipulation while still achieving strategic communication objectives.

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Opinion – What the Iran War Vindicates about Clausewitz

E-International Relations | Andrew Latham

The U.S.-Iran war, despite tactical successes, fundamentally vindicates Carl von Clausewitz as a diagnostician of strategic failure rather than merely a cataloger of war's enduring features. Washington inverted the Clausewitzian means-ends relationship, allowing military operations to dictate political objectives, resulting in an undefined political end state and a conflict that merely pauses. A sustained American failure to identify Iran's true center of gravity—whether its nuclear program, the IRGC, or domestic legitimacy—led to a dispersal of force. The article questions if the U.S. campaign has reached its culminating point, citing dwindling precision munitions, precarious Gulf basing access, and finite domestic political will. Iran, a weaker power, effectively employs endurance as a strategy, demonstrating that survivability can constitute victory. While Clausewitz's framework is less developed for modern deterrence, proxy warfare, and third-party strategic actors, his core insights regarding political control, clear objectives, and the defense's structural advantages remain critical for understanding the war's unresolved strategic outcomes.

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Stop Calling it Gray | Irregular Warfare Initiative

Small Wars Journal

China's coercive activities below the threshold of armed conflict are strategically mislabeled by the West as "gray zone" operations, a term that inadvertently benefits Beijing by implying ambiguity and fostering hesitation among democratic governments. Colonel David Maxwell argues that this Western terminology legitimizes China's actions and fails to recognize Beijing's clear strategic intent, as outlined in its "Unrestricted Warfare" and "Three Warfares" doctrines. These doctrines integrate financial, informational, legal, cyber, and psychological tools as weapons, which the "gray zone" framing only amplifies. The Philippines offers a more effective model by explicitly labeling Chinese actions as "illegal, coercive, aggressive, deceptive," thereby imposing reputational costs on Beijing, strengthening alliance cohesion, and disrupting China's incremental normalization tactics. The article stresses the critical importance of strategic language as a battleground, urging the West to adopt precise terminology to counter China's clear strategic communication, especially in light of Beijing's "constructive strategic stability" narrative.

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Pentagon rush to counter drone threat may be undermining safety standards, Army explosive safety specialist warns

CBS News | James LaPorta

The U.S. military's rapid push to integrate low-cost, expendable drones for battlefield use is reportedly compromising established explosive safety standards, according to an Army explosive safety specialist. A March memorandum, obtained by CBS News, detailed an incident where a mini-drone detonated, injuring a Special Forces soldier, and warned that the Defense Department's urgency to address unmanned aerial threats is causing "basic explosive safety principles" to be ignored, increasing accident risks. This drive is fueled by lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which highlighted the need for rapid, scaled-up production of lethal drones, prompting the Pentagon to requested industry information for 300,000 drones following a presidential executive order. The specialist's warning, despite being dismissed as opinion by U.S. Army Special Operations Command Col. Allie Scott, underscores critical tensions between innovation speed and safety protocols in military procurement and operational deployment. The incident involved an XM183 "MiniBlast" pyrotechnic cartridge, which lacked "full material release" under Army regulations, further highlighting potential systemic safety gaps.

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Data as Firepower: An Exploration of Data Superiority as a Warfighting Concept

Small Wars Journal  |  Aaron Bazin, Frankie Zare, William Julian

The concept of data superiority has emerged as a critical warfighting capability, fundamentally reshaping modern military strategy and operations. Defined as the ability to collect, process, and act upon data faster and more effectively than an adversary, it is presented as a prerequisite for achieving decision advantage. Historically, information has always been crucial, from George Washington's spy networks to WWII's Enigma code and Operation Desert Storm's integration of ISR and GPS. Today, the exponential growth of data from diverse sources like satellites and cyber telemetry necessitates advanced processing at machine speed. Contemporary conflicts in Ukraine and Israel exemplify this, where forces leverage commercial and military data streams, AI, and cloud-based platforms (e.g., Ukraine's Delta system, IDF's algorithmic warfare) for real-time situational awareness, rapid targeting, and operational tempo. Theoretically, data superiority underpins Boyd's OODA Loop, enabling faster observation, orientation, decision, and action cycles. This capability is vital for maintaining command-and-control over autonomous systems and countering 'informationized warfare' in an increasingly complex global security environment.

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BEAN-COUNTING WON’T DO: MAKING SENSE OF MODERN MILITARY COMPETITION

War Room  |  Ian Bowers, Henrik Stålhane Hiim

Traditional military competition metrics, such as comparing budgets or platform counts, are increasingly insufficient for understanding modern advanced militaries, particularly in the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. The article advocates for analyzing operational concepts—the strategic roadmaps for future warfare—to accurately discern how militaries prepare for and compete in a multi-domain environment. Modern warfare emphasizes jointness, multi-domain operations (space, cyber, electromagnetic), and unmanned systems, making traditional bean-counting misleading. Both U.S. and Chinese operational concepts reveal an action-reaction dynamic, with China focusing on Taiwan-related scenarios and denying U.S. intervention within the First Island Chain, while the U.S. aims to deter aggression and defend Taiwan. Both nations are heavily investing in and integrating intelligence, command and control (C2), and fires capabilities to exploit perceived weaknesses in the adversary's operational system, as exemplified by China's "System Destruction Warfare" and "Multi-Domain Precision Warfare" concepts. This analytical shift provides a more precise understanding of strategic arming, strategy, and stability in key theaters like East Asia.

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Unmanned Systems and Army Special Forces

Military Review | Maj. John W. Kowalski

The United States Army Special Forces (ARSOF) must fundamentally restructure its operational detachment-alphas (ODAs) to effectively compete in an era of strategic competition dominated by unmanned systems (UXS). The proliferation of low-cost, accessible unmanned technology has drastically altered the character of warfare, as evidenced by conflicts in Ukraine, Houthi operations in the Red Sea, and the Myanmar civil war. These conflicts demonstrate UXS's capacity for mass employment, inflicting significant casualties, enabling non-state actors to achieve strategic effects like partial sea denial against advanced militaries, and rapidly evolving tactics. While US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) has initiated steps such as the Remote and Unmanned Systems Integration Course (RUSIC) and a robotics warrant officer MOS, these efforts are insufficient. The article advocates for integrating a dedicated UXS Non-Commissioned Officer into each ODA, increasing its doctrinal size to fourteen, and expanding RUSIC into a center of excellence to ensure ARSOF can deliver strategic effects in future unconventional statecraft and maritime operations.

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The Cross-Domain Contact Layer: Army Advances Multi-Domain Command-Pacific Following Successful Operational Experiment

U.S. Army | Maj. Garrett Bailey

The U.S. Army is advancing the establishment of Multi-Domain Command-Pacific (MDC-PAC) following a successful December 2024 operational experiment that validated a two-star headquarters' ability to integrate multidomain operations. MDC-PAC merges the 7th Infantry Division with the 1st Multi-Domain Task Force, creating a theater-enabling joint force integrator for the Indo-Pacific. This command is envisioned as a "covering force," operating independently to develop situations, conduct reconnaissance, and disrupt enemy systems, particularly within anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) environments. Central to its operational framework is the Cross-Domain Contact Layer (CDCL), which integrates distributed multidomain teams, advanced sensor arrays, layered agile effects formations, and agentic AI-enabled command and control systems. The CDCL is designed to rapidly converge kinetic and non-kinetic effects across air, land, maritime, cyber, and space domains, incorporating lessons from ongoing global conflicts. MDC-PAC represents a significant modernization effort, aiming to provide cross-domain solutions to create dilemmas for adversaries and neutralize A2/AD networks, with future refinement planned through exercises and integration with allies and partners.

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It’s time for a third special operations revolution

Military Times  |  David Maxwell

U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) require a fundamental restructuring, termed a "third special operations revolution," due to persistent congressional concerns regarding inadequate civilian oversight and operational issues. Despite legislative efforts since the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) to empower the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict (ASD SO/LIC) and establish the Special Operations Policy and Oversight Council (SOPOC), the Department of Defense has failed to fully implement these changes. The article proposes radical reforms: disestablishing U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) headquarters and the ASD SO/LIC position, and creating a new Department of Special Operations in Washington. This department would be led by a Secretary of Special Operations (SSO) and a Chief of Special Operations (CSO), who would become a permanent member of the Joint Chiefs. Additionally, the plan suggests designating the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) as a combatant command and elevating Theater Special Operations Commands (TSOCs) to three-star commands, ensuring robust civilian oversight and optimizing SOF capabilities for national security and defense strategies.

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Part 3: The U.S. Munitions Problem

Small Wars Journal 

The United States' munitions inventories, particularly defensive missile systems, were significantly depleted following a 39-day air campaign against Iran, according to a CSIS report. Key systems like the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3), Standard Missile 6 (SM-6), Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3 MSE) saw approximately half or more of their pre-war stocks expended. This rapid consumption, with SM-3s potentially lasting only 2.5 months at the Iran war rate and Patriots 75 days, severely weakens U.S. preparedness for future conflicts, such as a potential contingency in Taiwan. Long delivery times for replacements, ranging from 3.5 to 5.5 years, exacerbate the issue. Furthermore, critical components like THAAD radars, with only 13 delivered to the U.S., present an even greater vulnerability due to longer replacement lead times. The reliance of 18 allied nations on systems like the Patriot further complicates allocation decisions, potentially driving allies to seek alternative suppliers.

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West Bengal: The Transformation Of A Red State Into Saffron

Eurasia Review  |  P. K. Balachandran

West Bengal's political landscape, historically a Communist stronghold, has undergone a profound transformation towards Hindu nationalism, a shift rooted deeply in its 19th-century history. British rule, following centuries of Muslim governance, fostered a Hindu consciousness among upper-caste 'Bhadralok' by favoring them and promoting Hindu scriptures, creating a distinct Hindu-Muslim binary. The 1906 partition of Bengal and the subsequent annulment, driven by Hindu agitation, further solidified this divide. The 'Communal Award' of 1932, which fragmented Hindu society by granting separate electorates to Depressed Classes, intensified Hindu revivalism. Post-partition, successive West Bengal governments, including Congress and Communist parties, neglected the Muslim population, leaving them economically and educationally disadvantaged. This historical context of unaddressed grievances and embedded anti-Muslim sentiment has created fertile ground for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to exploit, leveraging these animosities to secure Hindu votes and cement the state's 'saffron' transformation.

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Why Soft Power Deserves Some Credit

Eye on China Substack  |  Anushka Saxena

Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) party caucus in April 2026 challenged the operationalization of a labor migration agreement with India, signed February 2024. This opposition, while appearing as routine political maneuvering, reveals deep public anxiety in Taiwan regarding large-scale immigration for "3K" jobs. A civil society petition with over 40,000 signatures and KMT lawmakers citing security concerns underscore societal discomfort, despite Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) efforts to counter stereotypical arguments. India must launch a comprehensive public diplomacy campaign targeting both Taiwanese citizens and policymakers to ensure Indian workers are accommodated, not merely tolerated. While the KMT's opposition appears policy-specific rather than broadly anti-India, its historical lack of deep engagement and "dialogue-over-deterrence" posture towards China could impede future bilateral cooperation, affecting investments and labor mobility. Delhi needs to monitor Taiwan’s upcoming November 2026 mid-term elections, as a stronger KMT presence could present a more apathetic partner for India in 2028, necessitating robust institutional linkages with the current DPP administration.

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Thucydides Trap, Supply Chains and the Dawn of a Multipolar World

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

President Donald Trump's state visit to China, despite outward diplomacy, exposed profound geopolitical fractures, with President Xi Jinping invoking the Thucydides’ Trap and explicitly warning against US interference in Taiwan, deeming it an "ultimate red line." Concurrently, the BRICS summit in India saw Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov condemn America's "predatory energy politics" and sanctions targeting Russian oil, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urged condemnation of US and Israeli aggression against Iran, highlighting a multipolar pushback against declining Western hegemony. India, facing the expiration of a critical US waiver for Russian oil imports on May 16, 2026, must now source costlier alternatives, impacting its economy and testing its strategic autonomy. This comes as Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured vital energy and defense deals with the UAE, including strategic petroleum reserves and a $5 billion investment, aiming to bolster India's resilience amid a global supply chain crisis exacerbated by the escalating Persian Gulf conflict.

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ASEAN mulls next steps as Myanmar military mounts comeback

IISS  |  Morgan Michaels

Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, has mounted a significant comeback following tightly controlled January 2026 elections, transitioning to a quasi-civilian government while maintaining effective control. This resurgence is bolstered by counter-offensives regaining strategic territory, an advanced arsenal including UAVs, over 100,000 conscripts, and resilient domestic defense-industrial capacity, further facilitated by China's pressure on ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to cease hostilities. The fragmented anti-junta movement faces internal strife, leading key international actors like China, India, and Thailand to increasingly view the Tatmadaw as the only viable partner for stability. Thailand, as a frontline state, is actively attempting to reintegrate Myanmar into ASEAN, proposing virtual and potentially in-person meetings with the new foreign minister, Tin Maung Swe. This 'nano-shift' in ASEAN's approach, driven by fatigue and the regime's diplomatic initiative, risks providing diplomatic justification for broader international re-engagement and sanctions relief, potentially undermining Myanmar's opposition movement by removing critical diplomatic backing.

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Trump’s China Trip Underscores How Power Has Shifted East

TIME  |  Charlie Campbell

U.S. President Donald Trump's 2026 visit to Beijing highlighted a significant shift in global power dynamics, with Chinese President Xi Jinping asserting dominance from the outset. Xi issued a strong rebuke regarding American arms sales to Taiwan, warning of potential conflict, and Trump appeared uncharacteristically subdued. This perceived deference, despite Trump's usual belligerence, underscores China's growing confidence as a peer to the U.S., even amidst its own economic challenges like a prolonged property crisis and high youth unemployment. China's economy, however, demonstrated resilience with a record trade surplus and surging exports of green technology. Regarding the ongoing Iran conflict, Trump claimed Xi offered assistance and vowed not to provide military equipment, though China's foreign ministry adopted a more robust stance. The trip also saw Trump making significant concessions, including approving advanced AI chip sales and suspending arms sales to Taiwan, a stark contrast to his earlier protectionist policies. China's strategic gains were further evident in the lack of U.S. pressure on human rights, cyber espionage, or IP theft, and Trump's isolation from traditional allies.

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