Avinash Shet & Lokendra Sharma
Introduction
Rapid technological changes in the last few years have added a twist to geopolitics defined by great power rivalry between the US and China. This rivalry increasingly spills into the AI domain. On the one hand, the US is impeding Chinese progress by resorting to export restrictions for AI hardware and software.[1] Chinese companies such as DeepSeek and Tencent, on the other hand, are challenging the very basis of US dominance by open-sourcing their AI models. In the space domain, the US and China have been embroiled in an intense race that spans satellite internet, space stations, Moon and Mars.[2]
Contemporary technology geopolitics not only involves great powers attempting to outpace the other in various technology domains — from AI to biotech and from aerospace to quantum — but also touches the very fabric of global supply chains. Following Israel’s pager attack in Lebanon and the US proposing rules to ban Chinese connected car technology in September 2024,[3] there has been a shift in how global supply chains are conceptualised and operationalised.[4] Concerns around supply chain security were suddenly heightened, with researchers, traders, and policymakers all struggling to frame a response to it.
Technology geopolitics and supply chain security concerns not only affect great powers but also alter the calculations of rising and aspirational developing countries such as India. The question animating Indian policymakers is how India should navigate high-tech geopolitics and secure its supply chains in a way that is in the country’s interests.