The India-US Trade Dilemma: Tariffs, Tensions, and the Road Ahead

Kashif Hasan Khan

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On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sweeping tariff policy targeting more than 60 countries, calling it “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. In India, it was already April 3 when the details became public. The policy revolves around “reciprocal” tariffs, a concept that aims to match or exceed the tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods. Among the nations singled out, India was a key focus, with Trump declaring that the U.S. would impose a 26 percent tariff on Indian exports in response to what he claimed was a 52 percent tariff levied by India on U.S. goods.

This announcement comes at a critical time for India, which has been working to deepen trade ties with the U.S. as part of its broader economic diplomacy strategy. India has sought greater market access in sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and technology, while also negotiating tariff reductions on U.S. agricultural and industrial products. Trump’s decision to impose higher duties on Indian goods could disrupt this progress and force India to reconsider its trade approach with the U.S.

Taiwan’s new 2nm chip set to power the AI revolution

Domenico Vicinanza

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On April 1, 2025, the Taiwanese manufacturer TSMC introduced the world’s most advanced microchip: the 2-nanometer (2nm) chip.

Mass production is expected for the second half of the year, and TSMC promises it will represent a major step forward in performance and efficiency – potentially reshaping the technological landscape.

Microchips are the foundation of modern technology, found in nearly all electronic devices, from electric toothbrushes and smartphones to laptops and household appliances. They are made by layering and etching materials like silicon to create microscopic circuits containing billions of transistors.

These transistors are effectively tiny switches, managing the flow of electricity and allowing computers to work. In general, the more transistors a chip contains, the faster and more powerful it becomes.

The microchip industry consistently endeavors to pack more transistors into a smaller area, leading to faster, more powerful and energy-efficient technological devices.

China’s Belt and Road crediblity collapsing fast in Thailand

Richard S Ehrlich

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China’s Belt and Road Initiative projects are being scrutinized in Thailand after Myanmar’s 7.7 earthquake pancaked a 30-floor building 966 kilometers (600 miles) away that Chinese engineers were constructing in Bangkok.

The incomplete skyscraper was the only building to collapse in the lightly damaged Thai capital. But the disaster exposed allegedly substandard steel reinforcing rods that had snapped, reducing the building to a huge rubble pile that crushed about 87 construction workers, including 15 confirmed dead and 72 who disappeared.

“I watched multiple clips of the building collapse from different angles,” a stunned Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said.

“From my experience in the construction industry, I have never seen an issue like this.

“We must investigate thoroughly because a significant portion of the budget was allocated, and the deadline for completion had been extended,” Paetongtarn said.

The investigation began with a bizarre, troubling sight. Two days after the March 28 quake, four Chinese men were filmed grabbing in their arms as many construction-related documents as they could carry and running away from the rubble site.

America’s Absence in Myanmar’s Early Earthquake Response: A Moral and Strategic Failure

Francisco Bencosme and Michael Schiffer

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It was only a matter of time before a disaster struck to test the real-world effects — and the U.S. foreign policy cost — of President Donald Trump’s and Elon Musk’s chainsaw approach to foreign assistance “reform” and realignment. With this past weekend’s earthquake in Burma (Myanmar), we now have clear evidence that the gutting of the U.S. Agency for International Development has not only left that country worse off than it might be with American aid, but also that America itself is morally impoverished, its global leadership is in question, and its security is strategically at risk.

Despite the mistakes the United States has made around the globe over its lifetime – and in part because it often has acknowledged them, even if belatedly — when disaster strikes, the world looks to the United States, not just for its resources but for its leadership. For decades, the United States has been at the forefront of humanitarian response and disaster assistance, recognizing that such efforts are not just acts of generosity but vital tools of diplomacy and national security.

But in the wake of the March 28 earthquake in Burma, the United States has been largely absent, belatedly sending $2 million and a small emergency response team for an assessment. It’s a failure that carries not only profound moral consequences but also strategic costs that may create aftershocks for years to come. To add insult to injury, President Donald Trump, in announcing his tariffs this week, slapped a 44 percent tariff on Burma, deepening its economic and humanitarian crisis.

China Will Launch an Invasion of Taiwan In Next Few Months: Intel Sources

Reuben Johnson

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Intelligence Sources: China Will Try To Take Taiwan in Six Months – A takeover of the Republic of China (ROC) on the island of Taiwan by the Mainland People’s Republic of China (PRC) is increasingly being considered a question of “not if, but when.”

Beijing’s unrelenting program of harassment activities directed against the ROC has been described by Sir Alex Younger, the former Chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, as “a textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassment” or a case study for understanding the aspects of “grey zone” type warfare.

China’s Threat to Taiwan

While the situation with the ROC has unique aspects related to its long-running tensions with the Mainland, the grey zone-type harassment it faces is nearly identical to the actions taken by both the PRC and Russia against other nations in Europe and Asia. These include sabotaging undersea infrastructure like the internet and other communications cables, election interference, and digitalized disinformation.

On 4 March, the administration of US President Donald Trump imposed a set of tariffs on the PRC, which Washington billed as incentives for Beijing to return to what Washington defines as equitable and fair trade. This prompted the PRC ambassador to make the semi-ambiguous threat that his country was prepared for any “type of war” with the US.

Taking Stock of China’s Polar Fleet

Trym Eiterjord

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China’s presence is being felt in the Arctic. Despite a retreat from the region in recent years, following political pushback and a series of abortive infrastructure and extractive projects, Beijing’s maritime activities – or perceived activities – in the region continue to stoke fears among Western Arctic governments and provide grist for pundits warning about an Arctic in peril. U.S. President Donald Trump illustrated as much during a January news conference where he explained his rationale for wanting to buy, or otherwise acquire, the Arctic island nation of Greenland: “You look outside, you have China ships all over the place.”

The reality, however, is different. Rather than an Arctic Ocean teeming with Chinese-flagged vessels, Beijing’s maritime presence in the region remains modest and, for now, does not pose the security risks many have warned about.

China, to be sure, sees itself as a “near-Arctic” state with scientific, economic, and strategic interests in the region, as spelled out in its 2018 Arctic policy. Beijing has identified Arctic waterways as important for diversifying its access to various strategic resources. It has included the Arctic Ocean as a maritime space within its globe-spanning Belt and Road Initiative and proposed to build a “Polar Silk Road” connecting economies throughout the region. Although making up only a tiny fraction of global seaborne commerce, cargo traffic across the Arctic is today dominated by the Russia-China energy trade. Last October, Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time.

Why a no-show by China’s No.2 general has speculation running wild

Nectar Gan

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The Chinese military officials in brown uniforms fan out around rows of young trees, shoveling soil into freshly dug pits. The camera pans to the most senior leaders one by one, in order of rank. But one prominent face is conspicuously absent.

The news segment, aired Wednesday night on China’s state broadcaster, features a tree-planting event in the outskirts of the capital Beijing – an annual springtime tradition for the country’s military leadership spanning more than four decades.

But Gen. He Weidong, the second-highest-ranking uniformed officer in the People’s Liberation Army, was nowhere to be seen. Nor was he named as a participant in a report by the official state news agency.

Gen. He’s absence from the high-profile event has fueled ongoing speculation that the second-ranking vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC) may have become the latest – and most senior – casualty in leader Xi Jinping’s purge of the military’s top ranks.

How the world as we know it changes if China takes Taiwan

DAVID AVERRE

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China deployed dozens of warships and planes to encircle the island nation of Taiwan in menacing, large-scale war games earlier this week.

Chilling satellite pictures also revealed what appear to be Beijing's 'invasion barges' - gargantuan platforms that connect to form a mobile pier that could enable thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles to land on Taiwan's shores.

The multi-day military drills forced Taipei to respond by scrambling fighter jets and warships of their own to dissuade any overzealous members of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) from posing a serious threat.

But these alarming exercises were just the latest addition to a worrying trend that has seen Beijing grow increasingly aggressive toward its island neighbour in recent years.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), headed by authoritarian President Xi Jinping, sees Taiwan as a renegade province to be brought back under Beijing's control, by force if necessary.

But Taiwan's elected Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presides over a self-governing, democratic society and has sought close ties with the US, hoping its political, military and economic heft will keep Xi's expansionist tendencies at bay.

‘Patriotic traffic business’: when China’s cyber nationalists cross Beijing’s red line

Phoebe Zhang and Yuanyue Dang

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Over the years, influencer Sima Nan rose to fame waging campaigns against enemies of the state.

He began to gather attention in the 1990s, appearing on national television to attack qigong masters including Falun Gong, a spiritual group Beijing later outlawed as an “evil cult”.

Along the way, Sima Nan, whose real name is Yu Li, exposed the tricks of many so-called masters – performers who appeared to swallow fire, bend spoons, or break bricks with their heads – by staging the same tricks on state broadcaster CCTV to show that they did not have the superpowers they had claimed.

A decade later, he turned his attention to a new target – the United States and what he saw as American surrogates in China.

Sima Nan would frequently accuse groups or individuals of betraying China’s interests and colluding with the US, an approach that earned him the nickname “the anti-US fighter”.

During his tirades, he would often cite Communist Party ideology, including Mao Zedong Thought, giving his remarks a veneer of official endorsement. He also took a hardline stance against the private sector, questioning how much it had contributed to the country in terms of taxes and gross domestic product.

US Relocates Patriot Air Defense Missiles from South Korea to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions.

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According to information published on April 4, 2025, by The Korea Herald, South Korea's largest English-language daily newspaper, South Korea and the United States have reached a landmark agreement to temporarily redeploy U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense batteries from South Korea to the Middle East. This strategic decision marks the first known instance of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) assets being transferred to another theater of operation and reflects a broader realignment of U.S. defense priorities in response to rising security threats in the Middle East.

The redeployment of U.S. Patriot air defense missile systems, agreed upon last month, is described as a "monthslong" operation involving partial relocation of Patriot missile systems. It reflects not only the strategic flexibility of the U.S. military but also the evolving role of South Korea in supporting American defense initiatives beyond the Korean Peninsula. This move comes at a time of growing instability in the Middle East, where tensions with Iran and the increasing activity of Iran-backed militias and Houthi rebel forces have prompted urgent calls for enhanced missile defense capabilities.

Europe Needs To Be Pragmatic About Defense Spending – Analysis

Luke Coffey

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The issue of Europe not spending enough on defense has irked American policymakers for decades. The criticism peaked during President Donald Trump’s first term and it remains a contentious issue in his second one.

When Russia invaded Ukraine the first time, in 2014, only three NATO members — the US, the UK and Greece — met the alliance’s target for defense spending by members of 2 percent of gross domestic product. Fast forward more than a decade and 23 members now meet that goal. This is progress but several countries still fall short.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was supposed to be a wake-up call for Europe. Across the continent, leaders pledged to do more for their own defense. Commitments poured in to increase military spending, modernize armed forces, and arm Ukraine both with existing stockpiles and newly manufactured weapons. Some of these promises were fulfilled, others ignored or quietly forgotten. Yes, Europe is in a better place now in terms of defense spending but the work is far from finished.

CIA Leveraging Digital Transformation Tools in HUMINT Missions

Pat Host

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One of the United States’ most secretive agencies is using digital transformation tools such as AI and human-machine teaming as it tries to solve the nation’s toughest national security problems.

Since the CIA established the Directorate of Digital Innovation, or DDI, in 2015, the agency has increasingly encouraged entwining digital technology into its core human intelligence, or HUMINT, mission, where intelligence is obtained from human sources. Juliane Gallina, the CIA’s deputy director for digital innovation, said every DDI mission is guided by human-machine teaming, which starts with data and is improved with AI before being put to use by CIA agents.

“It is important to remember that CIA is not only a HUMINT-focused organization, but we also serve as the functional manager for [open source intelligence, a.k.a. OSINT] for the intelligence community,” Gallina said.

Who Is Juliane Gallina?

Gallina is the latest keynote speaker to be added to the Potomac Officers Club’s 2025 Digital Transformation Summit, which will take place on April 24 at the Hilton McLean in McLean, Virginia. CIA officials rarely speak in public, making this a phenomenal opportunity to network with Gallina and hear what the CIA has in store for digital transformation in 2025. Tickets are selling fast. Don’t miss out!

Golden Dome: who and what should it defend? - Opinion

Henry Sokolski

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On January 27, President Trump ordered the Pentagon to develop “a reference architecture, capabilities-based requirements, and an implementation plan for the next-generation missile defense shield,” which, inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome, came to be known as the Golden Dome. On March 28, the Pentagon blew past the White House-imposed deadline.

This shouldn’t be surprising. “At a minimum” the report must include plans to defend “the United States against ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks from peer, near-peer, and rogue adversaries.” The White House then ordered that this report serve as the basis of a follow-on report on how best to provide theater defenses for U.S. bases and allies overseas from missile attacks.

Meeting even half of these requirements is a tall order. Consider: In 1983, when Ronald Reagan first proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), the U.S. needed only to convince Moscow that the project was feasible and serious. The Soviets believed him, stoking fears that contributed to the Soviet Union’s collapse even before the U.S. deployed a single interceptor.

Russia’s New Helicopter Carrier Is Taking Shape In Crimea

Joseph Trevithick

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Satellite imagery shows work on the first of Russia’s Project 23900 big-deck amphibious assault ships, also known as the Ivan Rogov class, is continuing at a shipyard on the occupied Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian forces have targeted the Zaliv yard in the past, severely damaging at least one warship.

Ukrainian outlet Defense Express called new attention to the ongoing work on the initial Ivan Rogov class ship at Zaliv yesterday, publishing a satellite image from an unspecified source it said had been taken in “spring 2025.” TWZ subsequently obtained another image from Maxar Technologies, seen at the top of this story and uncropped later on, which was captured on Nov. 17, 2024, and also highlights the progress that has been made in the past year or so. Russia has two Project 23900s on order, currently set to be named Ivan Rogov and Mitrofan Moskalenko, and a keel-laying ceremony was held at Zaliv back in 2020.

The image from Maxar and the one Defense Express obtained both show the Project 23900 amphibious assault ship very much still under construction. At the same time, the hull is dramatically more complete than it was in 2023 or even by the middle of the following year. Two large rectangular gaps are now visible, which could be for elevators to move aircraft and other materiel between the flight deck and below-deck hangars. The ship still lacks its flight deck and island.

Russian attack on Zelensky’s home city kills 19 people, including 9 children, one of the deadliest strikes this year

Mariya Knight, Max Saltman, Sophie Tanno and Kosta Gak

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A Russian missile attack on the Ukrainian president’s home city of Kryvyi Rih on Friday killed at least 19 people, including nine children, one of the deadliest strikes this year in a conflict that shows no sign of a swift end despite a push for peace by the Trump administration.

Among the 72 injured was a baby as young as three months old, with the attack also damaging dozens of apartment buildings and six education institutes along with shops and businesses, said Oleksandr Vilkul, Kryvyi Rih mayor, on Telegram on Saturday, calling it a “tragic evening and night.”

“Another bloody crime was committed by the terrorist country. Rocket and massive Shahed attacks on residential areas and playgrounds,” the mayor said.

Russian troops struck Kryvyi Rih with a ballistic missile with a cluster warhead, which is “designed to hit a larger area and a larger number of people,” the Ukrainian General Staff said.

Zelensky’s home town has come under repeated Russian attack in recent months. A deadly strike earlier this month, killed four civilians in a taxi parking lot.

Elon Musk hopes for ‘zero-tariff situation’ between US and EU

Robert Ilich

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Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and the face of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, said Saturday that he hopes for a “zero-tariff situation” between Europe and the United States.

“At the end of the day, I hope it’s agreed that both Europe and the United States should move ideally, in my view, to a zero-tariff situation, effectively creating a free-trade zone between Europe and North America,” Musk said in a video-link interview with Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and the leader of the far-right League party, during a League congress in Florence.

Musk’s comments come after President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced 20% tariffs on goods from the European Union.

In an exchange Saturday on his social media platform, X, Musk slammed Peter Navarro, the Trump administration’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, who has championed the tariffs.

“A PhD in Econ from Harvard is a bad thing, not a good thing,” Musk posted about Navarro’s academic background. The Tesla CEO also added of Navarro: “He ain’t built sh*t.”

Poland Prepares for Direct War With Russia

Janusz Bugajski

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Poland has been reinvigorating its military preparations for a potential war with Russia since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Warsaw is bolstering its defenses in anticipation of the growing likelihood of direct armed conflict with its perennial historical rival, given the uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to broker peace between Moscow and Kyiv, as well as the prospect of Russia consolidating its territorial gains in Ukraine. The Polish government calculates that if Washington forces Ukraine to surrender parts of its territory and elements of its sovereignty, while Russia is enabled to restore its economy and military through the lifting of economic sanctions, then Poland will be on the front lines of the next war.

In recent weeks, the coalition government of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has taken several domestic and international steps to strengthen Poland’s military capabilities and social preparedness. In a major speech in parliament on March 7, Tusk explained the basis for Poland’s accelerated military buildup (Euromaidan Press, March 7). Tusk warned that intelligence reports shared by allies indicate that Moscow is planning for a significantly larger war within three to four years by massively investing in its military expansion and capacity for mobilization. Tusk also noted that it was unlikely that Ukraine would receive any hard security guarantees from the United States under any prospective peace deal, meaning that Poland’s predicament had become more dangerous.

The Illusion of BMD Testing in Ships

Kevin Eyer

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"In a unique demonstration of advanced missile defense capabilities, the U.S. Navy executed a groundbreaking test in which a two-stage ballistic missile was dropped from a C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft using parachutes before being launched directly into the air. This innovative approach, part of Flight Test Other-40 (FTX-40), codenamed Stellar Banshee, was designed to evaluate the Aegis Combat System aboard the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Pinckney (DDG 91) against a live medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) threat simulating hypersonic characteristics… The test scenario offered an unprecedented degree of realism. The missile, after being stabilized mid-air by parachutes, ignited vertically to replicate the flight profile of an operational MRBM. The USS Pinckney Arleigh Burke-class destroyer successfully tracked the threat using its onboard Aegis system and executed a simulated engagement using a virtualized SM-6 Block IAU interceptor. Although no physical interceptor was launched, the test validated the ship's ability to detect, process, and prepare for high-speed missile threats under realistic conditions." (Naval News Navy - Global Defense News).

I was not there for "Stellar Banshee," but I was the Commanding Officer of USS Shiloh (CG 67) for "Stellar Predator." Stellar Predator, or FTM-10, was the first test of the Aegis BMD 3.6 Combat System; the capability that allowed the ship to employ the Standard Missile-3 Block IA anti-ballistic missile. As for the target at Stellar Predator, it was a live ballistic missile.

FTM-10, like FTX 40, was an unqualified success, paving the way for delivery of Shiloh to Forward Deployed Naval Forces, Japan. There she would serve as the Navy's big Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) gun in the 7th Fleet for the next decade.

Cost of US military offensive against Houthis nears $1 billion with limited impact

Natasha Bertrand

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The total cost of the US military’s operation against the Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen is nearing $1 billion in just under three weeks, even as the attacks have had limited impact on destroying the terror group’s capabilities, three people briefed on the campaign’s progress told CNN.

The military offensive, which was launched on March 15, has already used hundreds of millions of dollars worth of munitions for strikes against the group, including JASSM long-range cruise missiles, JSOWs, which are GPS-guided glide bombs, and Tomahawk missiles, the sources said.

B-2 bombers out of Diego Garcia are also being used against the Houthis, and an additional aircraft carrier as well as several fighter squadrons and air defense systems will soon be moved into the Central Command region, defense officials said this week.

One of the sources said the Pentagon will likely need to request supplemental funding from Congress to continue the operation, but may not receive it — the offensive has already been criticized on both sides of the aisle, and even Vice President JD Vance said he thought the operation was “a mistake” in a Signal chat published by The Atlantic last week.

The Big Five - 6 April edition

Mick Ryan

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Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five. This week, a major Russian missile strike on Kyiv and other regions, an examination of the status of peace negotiations, the potential peacekeeping force, as well as updates on the war on the ground as well as the growing confrontation with China in the Pacific.

As always, I conclude with my top five war and national security reads from the week.

Ukraine

Long Range Strike. As I wrote this on Sunday morning Kyiv-time, Ukraine came under attack from another large-scale Russian drone, cruise and ballistic missile attack. Initial reporting indicates that just over two dozen Russian missiles were launched at targets inside of Ukraine in two waves. Multiple Shahed drones were also launched.

The missiles appear to have been a mix of Kh 101s, Iskander-Ms and Kalibr missiles. There are indications that around one third were shot down and the remainder hit in or near Kyiv, as well as in Cherkasy, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts.

The attack, again, exemplifies Putin’s determination to subjugate Ukraine, and the impotence of the Trump administration in forcing any kind of concession from Russia.

Trump’s Tariffs Are Threatening the US Semiconductor Revival

Will Knight & Zeyi Yang

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Silicon Valley let out a sigh of relief on Wednesday when it learned that President Donald Trump’s tariff bonanza included an exemption for semiconductors, which, at least for now, won’t be subject to higher import duties. But just three days later, some US tech companies may be finding that the loophole actually creates more problems than it solves. After the tariffs were announced, the White House published a list of the products that it says are unaffected, and it doesn’t include many kinds of chip-related goods.

That means only a small number of American manufacturers will be able to continue sourcing chips without needing to factor in higher import costs. The vast majority of semiconductors that come into the US currently are already packaged into products that are not exempt, such as the graphics processing units (GPUs) and servers for training artificial intelligence models. And manufacturing equipment that domestic companies use to produce chips in the US wasn’t spared, either.

“If you are a major chip producer who is making a sizable investment in the US, a hundred billion dollars will buy you a lot less in the next few years than the last few years,” says Martin Chorzempa, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Why the UN Human Rights Council Keeps Failing on Israel

Lawrence Haas

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UN’s Human Rights Council set to mock itself – The United Nations Human Rights Council is expected to reappoint its special rapporteur on the Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese, to a second three-year term on Friday, mocking its own mandate to fairly and seriously investigate human rights problems around the world.

In doing so, the Council will likely ignore its own procedures, established in 2008, under which the HRC president must alert the council to “any information” to suggest “persistent non-compliance” by a special rapporteur with the position’s code of conduct.

Among other things, the code calls for the UNHRC’s “special procedures mandate holders” (of which Albanese is one) to “uphold the highest standards of efficiency, competence and integrity, meaning, in particular, though not exclusively, probity, impartiality, equity, honesty and good faith.”

During her three years in the post, Albanese has defended the genocidal terrorists of Hamas; blamed Israel for Hamas’ barbaric slaughter and hostage-taking on October 7, 2023; voiced anti-Semitic tropes; accused Israel of committing genocide; compared Israel’s government to that of Nazi Germany; compared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler; called for the UN to kick Israel out; and suggested that America’s government is controlled by the Israel lobby.

AI’s ‘Oppenheimer Moment’: Why New Thinking Is Needed On Disarmament

Juliette Maigné

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The Artificial Intelligence (AI) race needs to slow down and IT firms should instead be focusing on the bigger picture to ensure that the technology is not misused on the battlefield, UN disarmament experts and leaders of ‘big tech’ companies have insisted.

Engaging with the tech community is not “a nice to have” sideline for defence policymakers – it is “absolutely indispensable to have this community engaged from the outset in the design, development and use of the frameworks that will guide the safety and security of AI systems and capabilities”, said Gosia Loy, co-deputy head of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR).

Speaking at the recent Global Conference on AI Security and Ethics hosted by UNIDIR in Geneva, she stressed the importance of erecting effective guardrails as the world navigates what is frequently called AI’s “Oppenheimer moment” – in reference to Robert Oppenheimer, the US nuclear physicist best known for his pivotal role in creating the atomic bomb.

The Convergence Conundrum: Achieving Mass in the Era of Artificial Intelligence

Benjamin Jensen and Jake S. Kwon

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Mass has long been a cornerstone of military strategy. Traditionally defined as the concentration of combat power at a decisive point to overwhelm the adversary, this principle remains as relevant to contemporary joint force planning as it was during the Napoleonic Wars. However, advancements in artificial intelligence are fundamentally reshaping how mass is generated, applied, and countered in modern warfare.

Mass now derives from converging effects across domains and aligning them against objectives. This process relies on synthesizing large volumes of information to support mission command and generating tempo in modern military operations.

What is Mass?

In war the principle of mass describes, as US Army doctrine puts it, the imperative to “concentrate the effects of combat power at the most advantageous place and time to produce decisive results.” The modern foundation for thinking about mass emerged from analysis of Napoleonic warfare in the early nineteenth century. In On War—particularly the book’s chapter on the “concentration of forces in space”—Carl von Clausewitz sees the concentration of force as an almost law-like principle governing how to win decisive battles. Antoine-Henri Jomini asserts that most fundamental principle of war is applying “strategic combinations [of] mass” on the “decisive points of a theatre of war.” These concepts became the principle of mass in modern war through J. F. C. Fuller’s attempts to formulate a science of war in the early twentieth century.

Army starting Project Convergence ‘Part B’

Jared Serbu

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It’s the fifth year for the Army’s Project Convergence, the service’s annual warfighting experiment that helps inform the Pentagon’s vision Joint All-Domain Command and Control. But this year is a little different: there’s a Part B. In addition to testing new technologies and warfighting concepts in the California desert, the Army is putting them through their paces in the Western Pacific.

The first phase of this year’s Project Convergence — and its capstone event at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, Calif. — was in many ways similar to previous iterations, with about 6,000 military personnel testing new technology with three different “vignettes” simulating military operations. That portion wrapped up in March.

But Lt. Gen. David Hodne, the director of the Futures and Concepts Center at Army Futures Command, said “Part A” of Project Convergence was just one in a series of experiments that will run through May. Next up is “Part B” in the Pacific theater.

“The difference with what we did with the joint portion of Project Convergence this year is the venue will encompass a geographical region as far west as the Philippines, as far east as Tahiti, as far north as Japan, and as far south as Australia,” he said last week at the Association of the U.S. Army’s annual conference in Huntsville, Alabama. “And then the third component of our experimentation is the Army’s Title 10 war game. It used to be called Unified Quest, now it’s called Future Studies Program. That will take us right to May 21, and the experiments we’re hosting are really important to the future readiness of our Army.”