Billion Indians have no spending money - report

Nikhil Inamdar

Source Link

India is home to 1.4 billion people but around a billion lack money to spend on any discretionary goods or services, a new report estimates.

The country's consuming class, effectively the potential market for start-ups or business owners, is only about as big as Mexico, 130-140 million people, according to the report from Blume Ventures, a venture capital firm.

Another 300 million are "emerging" or "aspirant" consumers but they are reluctant spenders who have only just begun to open their purse strings, as click-of-a-button digital payments make it easy to transact.

What is more, the consuming class in Asia's third largest economy is not "widening" as much as it is "deepening", according to the report. That basically means India's wealthy population is not really growing in numbers, even though those who are already rich are getting even wealthier.

All of this is shaping the country's consumer market in distinct ways, particularly accelerating the trend of "premiumisation" where brands drive growth by doubling down on expensive, upgraded products catering to the wealthy, rather than focusing on mass-market offerings.

Remaking Myanmar Will Be Slow And Painful – OpEd

Source Link

Four years on from the military coup that deposed the National League for Democracy government elected in Myanmar’s November 2020 elections, the civil conflict that emerged in the coup’s aftermath remains deadlocked.

The brutal State Administrative Council (SAC) military junta has clung to power despite facing a determined but fragmented resistance. This resistance includes civilian militias known as people’s defence forces (PDFs), the so-called ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that are the de facto governing authorities throughout much of the country’s periphery, and the National Unity Government — a government-in-exile composed of politicians elected in 2020.

That the resistance has endured this long is impressive, and its control of up to half the country’s territory is even more so. Yet, as Nicholas Farrelly writes in this week’s lead article, despite Myanmar’s rolling economic crisis, the junta’s military losses in the periphery and its inability to suppress civilian militias in the ethnic Bamar heartland, ‘[t]he generals in Naypyitaw could hobble on in this fashion, potentially for years. The history of mismanaged military dictatorship in Myanmar suggests that this is a highly plausible scenario.’

Airstrikes: The Last Bastion of Junta Power in Myanmar

Antonio Graceffo

Source Link

I was driving with the Free Burma Rangers (FBR), a faith-based frontline aid organization, down one of the few remaining paved roads that had survived years of war. One of the Rangers in the back of the pickup truck began banging on the cab’s ceiling—a signal to pull over. The driver swerved aggressively, quickly steering the vehicle into the jungle. Once under the cover of trees, everyone jumped out and took shelter in a drainage ditch, eyes fixed on the sky. Above us, the faint sound of jets echoed as they crisscrossed over our position. “Before they attack, you’ll hear the pitch change when they dive,” a veteran soldier said. We listened in silence, but the attack never came.

In the Myanmar civil war, every rebel knows that there are no good aircraft. The resistance forces have no planes or helicopters. So, when a plane, helicopter, or drone is heard, people run for cover. The few remaining schools, temples, hospitals, and churches all have bomb shelters nearby, as do the internally displaced people’s camps, which now house about 80% of the population.

Watching the jets, which, at this point of the war are responsible for most of the casualties, it was frustrating to realize that the resistance doesn’t have a single antiaircraft gun or man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS). Government forces can fly overhead with impunity, terrorizing the population and killing at will, without any fear of counterfire.

As the jets got slightly ahead of our position, one of the soldiers shouted: “They just fired rockets.”

Given the trajectory, we assumed the target was about two kilometers down the road. In any other place, in any other war, one of the soldiers would have grabbed a radio or cell phone to call ahead and check for casualties. But after the 2021 coup, the Tatmadaw cut off the internet, cell service, and electricity across the entirety of Karenni State. Thus, the only way to find out what is actually happening is to go there.

China’s role in supplying critical minerals for the global energy transition: What could the future hold?

Rodrigo Castillo and Caitlin Purdy

Source Link

The world faces major challenges in responsibly sourcing large quantities of minerals that are critical for the transition to low-carbon energy sources. Consumption of these critical minerals—most notably nickel, copper, lithium, and cobalt—is projected to rise, largely driven by their use in the renewable energy sector. Demand is expected to quadruple by 2040 under the International Energy Agency’s Sustainable Development Scenario, in which global action would limit the global temperature rise to well below 2°C, and it is projected to rise by six times under a net-zero scenario.1 Many governments, including the United States, European Union members, and China, seem to share the goal of increasing the supply and rate of production of the raw materials needed for the energy transition to address the challenge of global climate change. However, meeting this demand will be difficult—and producing these minerals in strict adherence to robust environmental, social, and governance criteria will be even more so.

China is the dominant player in global mineral processing. This report analyzes how its strategic position in regard to critical minerals may evolve, to shed light on current and emerging challenges for the energy transition, given the country’s high level of engagement in global mineral supply chains.

As Trump Abandons Allies, How Will China Respond?

James Palmer

Source Link

The highlights this week: U.S. President Donald Trump’s shift in approach to U.S. allies amuses and unsettles Beijing, China flexes its muscles with new restrictions on rare-earth mining and processing, and Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui’s sentencing for a fraud conviction is delayed.

China’s rare earths dominance and policy responses

Philip Andrews-Speed & Anders Hove

Source Link

Introduction

Rare earth elements (REEs) are key to the global energy transition as they are used in a variety of applications in energy storage and permanent magnets (alongside defence applications). Demand for REEs is expected to rise dramatically through 2030, driven by their use in permanent magnets for electric vehicle (EV) motors (including hybrid vehicles) and wind turbines. Consumer electronics, optics, and lasers also consume REEs, but demand in these non-energy fields is not expected to grow as substantially.  

China currently dominates REE production and processing. The country is home to some of the most productive and lowest-cost REE-containing geological formations, which the government has been developing since the 1970s. China has encouraged domestic mining as well as processing of REEs, while also consolidating the domestic industry. The growth in Chinese domestic manufacturing of magnets, EV batteries, and wind turbines has further contributed to China’s dominance of the full REE supply chain. 

What Iran Wants

Christopher de Bellaigue

Source Link

Since October 7, 2023, the long arm of Iran has seemingly been everywhere in the crises that have beset the Middle East. With its eye on Hezbollah, Iran’s heavily armed Shiite ally in Lebanon, Israel was wholly unprepared for the devastating ground assault launched from Gaza by Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that was also backed by the Islamic Republic. Nor had the West anticipated that the Houthis in Yemen, a supposedly ragtag militia that had received a large arsenal of missiles from Tehran, would be capable of bringing global shipping in the Red Sea to a near standstill.

The conflicts unleashed by these regional allies have not been particularly kind to the Iranian leadership. Among Iran’s serial humiliations have been the July assassination, in a Tehran government guesthouse, of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader—a stark demonstration of the extent to which Israeli intelligence had penetrated the Iranian security forces—as well as the damage done to Hezbollah and the elimination of most of its senior ranks, including its formidable leader Hassan Nasrallah. In addition, Israel has carried out the largest airstrikes it has ever launched against Iran, reportedly weakening the country’s air defenses, and the Islamic Republic has witnessed the rapid fall of its longtime close partner, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

What Is Trump’s ‘Gold Card’ Route to Citizenship and How Might It Work?

Solcyré Burga

Source Link

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday evening that he would be selling a “gold card,” allowing foreign-born potential immigrants a pathway to citizenship for $5 million.

“You have a green card. This is a gold card,” the President told reporters in the Oval Office. “We’re going to be putting a price on that card of about $5 million and that’s going to give you green card privileges, plus it’s going to be a route to citizenship. And wealthy people will be coming into our country by buying this card.”

The President said that cards would begin to be sold in “about two weeks,” though experts warn that the newly-announced program cannot be done by Trump alone. “A President can't create a visa. That's for Congress to do,” says Lori Nessel, a professor at Seton Hall University’s School of Law.

The Trump Administration has been looking for ways to cut the U.S. deficit through new agencies like the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and the “gold card” could be just one such way the President is hoping to increase revenue.

The Growing Threat of Cyberwarfare from Nation-States

Source Link

Back in 2011, a group of Iranian hackers launched a series of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against nearly 50 U.S financial institutions. The attacks were alarming enough, disabling bank websites and preventing customers from accessing their online accounts. However, the situation became even more troubling when it was revealed that these attacks were sponsored and directed by the Iranian government.

Since then, nation-state cyberattacks have remained a top concern for cybersecurity professionals. Countries like Russia, China, and North Korea have joined Iran in being held responsible for these advanced persistent threats, commonly referred to as APTs. In a PaymentsJournal podcast, Stephanie Schneider, Cyber Threat Intelligence Analyst at LastPass, spoke with Tracy Kitten, Director of Fraud and Security at Javelin Strategy & Research, about what financial institutions can do to combat these threats from rogue nations.

The Big Four

The four nations carrying out these attacks are playing the long game. They’re patient, developing tools and tactics to achieve their objections, and essentially have an open checkbook to fund their operations. They’re also good at remaining undetected for as long as possible, allowing them to continuously siphon information or maintain access for future operations.

It’s The Oligarchy, Stupid – OpEd

Robert Reich

Source Link

One of the unacknowledged advantages of the horrendous era we’ve entered is that it is revealing for all to see the putrid connections between great wealth and great power.

Oligarchs are fully exposed, and they are defiant. It’s like hitting the “reveal code” key on older computers that let you see everything.

Jeff Bezos, the second-richest person in America, who bought The Washington Post in 2013, announced that the paper’s opinion section would henceforth focus on defending “personal liberties and free markets.”

Anything inconsistent with this view would not be published. “Viewpoints opposing those pillars will be left to be published by others.” (Full statement here.)

The Post’s opinion editor, David Shipley, promptly resigned, as he should.

You’ll recall that Bezos barred the Post from endorsing Kamala Harris in the last weeks of the 2024 election. Subsequently, the paper wouldn’t print its cartoonist’s drawing showing Bezos and other oligarchs bowing to Trump — leading the cartoonist to resign.

Can Europe confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on its own?

Source Link

WITHIN HOURS of his party winning national elections, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s presumptive next leader, dropped a bombshell. Donald Trump “does not care much about the fate of Europe”, he said. The priority was to “step by step…achieve independence from the USA”. This was not some distant aim. He was unsure, he said, whether NATO would still exist “in its current form” in June, when leaders are due to meet in the Netherlands, “or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.

The transatlantic relationship is crumbling, says an ex-head of NATO

Source Link

IN HIS 1985 state-of-the-union address, Ronald Reagan stood before Congress and declared that America’s mission was “to nourish and defend freedom and democracy, and to communicate these ideals everywhere we can”.

Trump’s Chaotic Agenda Has a Critical Through Line

Christina Lu

Source Link

In the whirlwind that has been U.S. President Donald Trump’s first month back in the Oval Office, analysts, officials, and diplomats have scrambled to understand the returning U.S. leader’s scattered—and often outlandish—foreign-policy fixations. After all, what do Canada, Greenland, Panama, and Ukraine really have in common?

One answer could be potential access to China-free supply chains for critical minerals, the resources underpinning everything from advanced weapons systems to green energy technologies. Ottawa is a mining hub, while Greenland boasts reserves of rare earths—though developing them is another story. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, too, has hyped up his country’s rare-earths potential, even though Ukraine has no commercial rare-earth deposits.

“When we look at a lot of the foreign-policy decisions that have come out in the first 30 days: Canada? Resource-rich. Greenland? Resource-rich. Ukraine? Resource-rich. Panama Canal? Vital for moving resources,” said Gracelin Baskaran, a critical minerals security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), who noted that Panama is home to one of the world’s biggest copper assets.

The Peril Donald Trump Poses to Ukraine

Keith Gessen

Source Link

In the summer of 2023, while the second Ukrainian counter-offensive was still under way, I spoke to Alexander Bick, a Biden Administration official who had helped lead planning at the National Security Council on the eve of the Russian invasion. When we talked, American strategy in Ukraine was looking very good. In the run-up to the war, the U.S. had convinced skeptical Europeans that American intelligence about an imminent Russian invasion was legitimate, rallied the Europeans to mount a united response, creatively made intelligence available to prepare the American public for the coming fight, and eventually persuaded the Ukrainians themselves that Vladimir Putin wasn’t bluffing. U.S. intelligence knew Russian battlefield plans in advance and shared them with the Ukrainian military; the Americans rushed highly effective antitank weapons into the country and helped Ukrainian officials think through a robust defense of Kyiv. On top of that, American strategists got lucky. “We got one thing exactly right—what the Russians were going to do, when they were going to do it, and where they were going to do it,” Bick said. “We got everything else wrong”—Russian capabilities, Ukrainian capabilities, the European response. “We just happened to get them all wrong in our favor.”

Bick and I were speaking at an optimistic moment. The Ukrainian counter-offensive had not yet failed; Russia had not yet reconstituted its mutilated armed forces; and the memory of the oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion was still fresh. Donald Trump was a former President fighting off criminal charges in numerous jurisdictions. Bick did not sense that Putin was open to genuine negotiations on ending the war. But, just as important, Bick and the Administration were in no particular hurry to get him there. They believed that time was on the side of Ukraine and its allies. The American Presidential election seemed far away, and Ukraine a peripheral issue to it.

The U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Deal Is Now In Peril: What We Know

Andrew E. Kramer, Maria Varenikova and Constant Méheut

Source Link

An anticipated deal for Ukraine to hand over natural resources revenues to the United States abruptly fell apart during an explosive meeting in the Oval Office on Friday, in a dramatic rupture in relations between the two wartime allies.

Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance castigated Mr. Zelensky for not being grateful enough for U.S. support, and sought to strong-arm him into making a peace deal. As voices were raised and tempers flared, Mr. Trump threatened to abandon Ukraine altogether if Mr. Zelensky did not go along.

The planned signing of the U.S.-Ukraine agreement did not happen, and Mr. Zelensky left the White House grounds without answering reporters’ questions.

What happened in the Oval Office

The explosive televised meeting was unlike any seen in the Oval Office between an American president and a foreign leader.

Bezos Orders Washington Post Opinion Section to Embrace ‘Personal Liberties and Free Markets’

Benjamin Mullin

Source Link

Jeff Bezos, the owner of The Washington Post, announced a major shift to the newspaper’s opinion section on Wednesday, saying it would now advocate “personal liberties and free markets” and not publish opposing viewpoints on those topics.

Mr. Bezos said the section’s editor, David Shipley, was leaving the paper in response to the change.

“I am of America and for America, and proud to be so,” Mr. Bezos said. “Our country did not get here by being typical. And a big part of America’s success has been freedom in the economic realm and everywhere else. Freedom is ethical — it minimizes coercion — and practical; it drives creativity, invention and prosperity.”

In his note, Mr. Bezos said that he had asked Mr. Shipley whether he wanted to stay at The Post, and that Mr. Shipley had declined.

“I suggested to him that if the answer wasn’t ‘hell yes,’ then it had to be ‘no,’” Mr. Bezos wrote.

The Disturbing Question at the Heart of the Trump-Zelensky Drama

Thomas L. Friedman

Source Link

The drama going on between President Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine raises one of the most disturbing questions I’ve ever had to ask about my own country: Are we being led by a dupe for Vladimir Putin — by someone ready to swallow whole the Russian president’s warped view of who started the war in Ukraine and how it must end? Or are we being led by a Mafia godfather, looking to carve up territory with Russia the way the heads of crime families operate? “I’ll take Greenland, and you can take Crimea. I’ll take Panama, and you can have the oil in the Arctic. And we’ll split the rare earths of Ukraine. It’s only fair.”

Either way, my fellow Americans and our friends abroad, for the next four years at least, the America you knew is over. The bedrock values, allies and truths America could always be counted upon to defend are now all in doubt — or for sale. Trump is not just thinking out of the box. He is thinking without a box, without any fidelity to truth or norms that animated America in the past.

Gabbard: UK demand to Apple for backdoor access is 'grave concern' to US

Suzanne Smalley

Source Link

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has told U.S. lawmakers she ordered a legal review of the U.K. government’s secret directive to Apple for a backdoor that could give British authorities access to encrypted data belonging to Americans.

Gabbard sent Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) a letter on Tuesday saying that the United Kingdom did not brief her on the request and that she didn’t know about the development until the Washington Post reported the demand earlier this month.

The report prompted an instant backlash against the U.K.’s order. On February 21, Apple yanked its premiere data protection tool from the British market rather than comply.

“I share your grave concern about the serious implications of the United Kingdom, or any foreign country, requiring Apple or any company to create a ‘backdoor’ that would allow access to Americans’ personal encrypted data,” Gabbard wrote in response to a February 13 missive from the senators.

The Broken Economic Order

Mariana Mazzucato

Source Link

In many ways, Donald Trump’s election to a second term as U.S. president is a story of economic dissatisfaction. For the first time in decades, the Democratic candidate received more support from the richest Americans than from the poorest. In 2020, most voters from households earning less than $50,000 a year opted for the Democrat, Joe Biden; in 2024, they favored the Republican, Trump. Those making more than $100,000 a year, meanwhile, were more likely to vote for Kamala Harris than for Trump. Declining support for the Democratic Party among working-class voters reflects a deep disenchantment with an economic system that, under administrations led by presidents of both parties, has concentrated wealth at the very top, enabled the growth of the financial sector at the expense of the rest of the economy, trapped people in cycles of debt, and deprioritized the well-being of millions of Americans.

Although his promises of economic relief tapped into a real problem, Trump is offering the wrong solutions. The policies he supports will not meaningfully change the unpopular economic model that produced the wave of anger he rode to victory. Instead, his proposed tariffs are likely to increase the cost of living and deliver few benefits for the American working class. If his administration goes through with its plans to dramatically reduce the size of the public sector, the U.S. government will lose much of its ability to deliver on big projects for years to come. And his mercantilist policies could both incite economic instability abroad and shrink the United States’ capacity for economic leadership.

Productivity Is Everything

Matthew J. Slaughter and David Wessel

Source Link

For the United States, these are trying times. Americans are overcome with an unshakable sense of economic malaise. The top-line indicators are good: unemployment is low, inflation is declining, and the country remains the richest in the world. Yet in poll after poll, most Americans say they are unhappy with the state of the economy today and its prospects for tomorrow. Only a quarter consider the economy good or excellent. Nearly 80 percent say they are not confident that their children will live better than they do.

Trump Admin Orders Federal Workforce Cuts, Gives Agencies New Deadline

Gabe Whisnant and Natalie Venegas

Source Link

Federal agencies must develop plans to eliminate employee positions under a directive from President Donald Trump's administration, setting the stage for a major restructuring of the federal government.

Why It Matters

The memo expands Trump's push to shrink the federal workforce, which he has called bloated and an obstacle to his agenda. Thousands of probationary employees have already been dismissed, and now the administration is focusing on career officials with civil service protections.

It follows an executive order he signed alongside billionaire Elon Musk, who leads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a task force aimed at reducing government costs and the federal workforce. In its first month of operation, it has restructured multiple federal agencies and recommended mass layoffs, sparking backlash and concern from Trump critics and some Republicans.

Musk has called for sweeping cuts to federal government spending, claiming it should be reduced by up to $2 trillion annually. Supporters say this will boost efficiency and help tackle the national debt, while critics argue it will reduce access to government services.

Rare Earth Minerals Front And Center In The Push For Peace In Ukraine – Analysis

Steve Gutterman

Source Link

A few weeks ago, rare earth elements, critical minerals, and other natural resources seemed like just one more factor in efforts to end Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Now they are front and center, a dominant focus of U.S. talks with Kyiv and a prominent vein of the intensifying diplomacy that also involves Moscow, the European Union, and others as Russia’s full-scale invasion enters its fourth year.

There were strong indications on February 25 that an agreement on a framework deal had been reached and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be in Washington later this week to sign it.

The deal would cover the joint development of Ukraine’s critical minerals and other natural resources, such as oil and gas, according to multiple news reports quoting unidentified sources in the Ukrainian government. The reports said the agreement was a framework for a broad economic deal that would include the exploitation of rare earth minerals.

How President Trump Is Well Placed To Secure A Deal With Russia To End The War – OpEd

Ian Proud

Source Link

Media coverage of America’s recent talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia focussed almost exclusively on the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Russia and the U.S. probably want different outcomes from the talks. But President Trump is better placed to reach a deal with President Putin that he was in his first term.

The speed with which America has moved to reestablish diplomatic contact with Russia has left European leaders breathless and flatfooted. Zelensky has also been damaged by a needless public fight with President Trump that he could not win, after accusing him of living in a Russian disinformation bubble.

Donald Trump has arrived in the White House, for the second time, following a collapse in U.S.-Russia relations under a preceding Democratic Party President. What seems different today is that the politics of Washington have made it easier for him to engage with President Putin.

In 2017, Russia undoubtedly hoped for a potential reset of relations with the United States after a general collapse in engagement under President Obama. In Obama’s final foreign policy fling on 29 December 2016, he expelled 35 Russian diplomats, in response to the so-called Russiagate allegations.

No Substitute for Victory: How to Negotiate from a Position of Strength to End the Russo-Ukraine War

Robert G. Rose 

Source Link

When I was in NATO’s headquarters in Kabul, a belief emerged that negotiations with the Taliban would inevitably produce a lasting peace deal. That deal never emerged. The Taliban knew they had the momentum. They had completely undermined the state apparatus in rural Afghanistan. Negotiations just served as a tool for their final victory. We were negotiating from a position of weakness.

As we enter into negotiations to end the Russo-Ukraine War, we need to negotiate from a position of strength. With the appropriate support, Ukraine still has the opportunity to achieve a decisive victory. For too long, Ukraine’s supporters have provided enough for Ukraine to survive but not enough for it to win. As General Douglas MacArthur declared, “War’s very object is victory, not prolonged indecision. In war there is no substitute for victory.”

Unless Vladimir Putin faces defeat, he will not be pressed into a reasonable peace. Any deal he would accept would serve only as a means for the eventual subjugation of Ukraine. He already violated the Minsk I and II agreements. Just as the Taliban used negotiations to secure their final victory, when Putin decides Russia’s grinding offensive has culminated, he can seek a ceasefire to solidify his lines, obtain sanctions relief, rebuild his forces, and then fabricate an excuse to launch a sequel to his special military operation. To achieve a lasting peace that puts to an end Russia’s attempts at imperial conquest, Putin needs to see that continuing the conflict with Ukraine will exhaust Russia and risk the collapse of his regime.

How Theodore Roosevelt Negotiated an End to Russian Expansion

Over a century ago, an American president successfully negotiated the end of centuries of Russian expansion in Asia. In 1905, Theodore Roosevelt orchestrated the Portsmouth Peace Conference to conclude the Russo-Japanese War.

Russia’s empire building in Asia concerned Roosevelt. In 1900, Russia had seized control of Manchuria. In 1904, at the outbreak of the war, he worried that “Russia’s course over the past three years has made it evident that if she wins she will organize northern China against us.” After Japan’s initial success at the Battle of Mukden in March 1904, Roosevelt wrote that he was “thoroughly . . . pleased with the Japanese victory, for Japan is playing our game.”

The Renegade Order How Trump Wields American Power

Hal Brands

Source Link

Donald Trump has already transformed the American political order. Not since Ronald Reagan has a president so dominated the national landscape or shifted its ideological terrain. In his second term, Trump could reshape global order in ways no less profound.

Today’s reigning, U.S.-led international system—call it Pax Americana, the liberal order, or the rules-based international order—arose from a brutal Eurasian century. The great global struggles of the modern era were contests to rule the Eurasian supercontinent. They inflicted horrific damage on humanity. They also created the most successful international order the world has ever known. That system has provided generations of great-power peace, prosperity, and democratic supremacy. It has bestowed pervasive, world-changing benefits that are now taken for granted. After the West’s victory in the Cold War, Washington sought to make that order global and permanent. Now, however, a fourth battle for Eurasia is raging, and the system is being menaced on every front.

All around Eurasia’s vibrant, vital periphery, revisionist states are on the move. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are attacking the regional foundations of Eurasian stability. They are forging alliances based on hostility to a liberal system that threatens illiberal rulers and inhibits their neoimperial dreams. War or the threat of war has become pervasive. The norms of a peaceful, prosperous world are under assault. The recurring terror of the last century was that Eurasian aggressors might make the world unfit for freedom by making it safe for predation and tyranny. That danger has flared anew today.

Trump isn’t the ideal defender of an imperiled American order. Indeed, one suspects he hardly thinks about international order at all. Trump is a hard-line nationalist who pursues power, profit, and unilateral advantage. He thinks in zero-sum terms and believes the United States has long been made a sucker by the entire world. Yet Trump intuitively understands something that many liberal internationalists forget: order flows from power and can hardly be preserved without it.