Indian Strategic Studies: 02/18/25

18 February 2025

Impediments To Indigenous Manufacture Of Military Aircraft In India – Analysis

P. K. Balachandran

Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh on Monday slammed officials of the state-owned military aircraft maker Hindustan Aeronautic Ltd, for tardiness in the delivery of fighter jets and sternly asked them to be conscientious.

At the Aero India 2025 exhibition in Bengaluru on Monday, the chief the Indian Air Force (IAF) Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh publicly slammed officials of the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) for failing to meet the IAF’s critical requirement of fighter jets as promised.

The Hindustan Times reported that Air Marshal Singh went to the extent of saying that he has “no confidence” in the state-run aircraft maker.

“I can only tell you our requirements and what our worries are. You have to alleviate those worries and make us more confident. At the moment, I am just not confident of HAL, which is a very wrong thing to happen,” Singh is heard saying in the clip posted on YouTube.

The aircraft, which the chief had flown at the air show was said to be a Light Combat Aircraft Mk 1A. But actually it wasn’t that, as it lacked many essential features. Singh pointed out that a Mk-1A will be Mk-1A only when fully fitted.

The IAF had ordered 83 Mk-1A fighters for INR 480,000 million in February 2021 and plans to buy 97 more Mk-1As at a cost of around INR 67,0000 million. The first aircraft was to be delivered by March 31, 2024, but that didn’t happen, partly because the US firm GE Aerospace’s inability to supply the F404 engines on time.

There were also delays in some key certifications. Nevertheless, HAL unveiled the LCA Mk-1A, at the air show on Monday, in a bid to allay concerns about its readiness to supply the aircraft.

India’s foreign policy: The unique challenge of Bangladesh

Bibhu Prasad Routray

The act of wait and watch doesn’t hold much attraction to the watchers of foreign policy. However, at times, a nation’s best interest is served by doing nothing. In the post-Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh, New Delhi is faced with a predicament. It cannot oblige the demands of the Interim Government to extradite Hasina. And without resetting the ties, Bangladesh could drift away from New Delhi’s arc of influence. In this context, exercising patience could provide New Delhi with an opportunity to pause, allowing Dhaka to navigate its pressing internal challenges.

Indian concerns

Ever since the collapse of the Awami League (AL) government, the retributive mob consisting of students, extremists, and opportunist criminals targeting the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh who are considered to be supporters of the party, has been criticised by New Delhi. The latter has repeatedly called for their protection, albeit to no avail. A wave of anti-India sentiment has seemingly enveloped Bangladesh. Even the statements of the members of the Interim Government have fanned such sentiments. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)’s repeated assurances that it desires “a positive, constructive and mutually beneficial relationship with Dhaka” have few takers in that country.

New Delhi has reasons to believe that attacks on the religious minorities were a byproduct of the larger space now available to the radical Islamists in the country to operate with a sense of impunity. Incidents have ranged from attacks on Hindu places of worship across the country to stopping women from playing a game of football. These indicate that the Islamists, who had been kept under check by the AL government, not only sense an opportunity to advance their agenda, they are doing so under some degree of patronage from the Interim Government. While statements of most of the Interim Government’s advisers have been consistently anti-Hasina, they have remained completely silent on this strengthening of the radicals. The unchecked growth of Islamist radicalism in India’s neighbourhood can be a matter of huge concern.

Idols And Idealism: Legacies Of Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose As An Indian Leader With Global Political Vision – OpEd

Raju Mansukhani

Across Asia, national idols and their idealism are being attacked and their contributions devalued, degraded, debased and often destroyed by opposing political forces. It is becoming the defining mark of our volatile age. Recent scenes of violence and arson in Dhaka, at the residence-turned-museum of ‘Bangabandhu’ Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, are yet another testimony to this onslaught; while within and outside the Parliament in India, the first Prime Minister Pt Jawaharlal Nehru is constantly being humiliated, ridiculed for domestic and foreign policies initiated in the 1950s, generations ago.

Rising above this cacophony of relentless political offensive is the much-adored highly revered figure of Subhas Chandra Bose, hailed as ‘Netaji’ (meaning ‘Leader’ in Hindi) whose aura continues to grow: in Kolkata, a museum dedicated to his life and times was inaugurated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 23 January 2021 marking Netaji’s 125th birth anniversary; in Moirang, a one-street town in the north-eastern Indian state of Manipur, the INA War Museum and INA Martyr’s memorial complex commemorate the historic events of 1944 when the Indian National Army hoisted the tricolour flag for the first time on Indian soil during the Second World War; innumerable books, films and television serials are grabbing the attention of new generations of readers, viewers who are witness to the charismatic power of Netaji’s leadership in the 1930s and 1940s, and his global vision still so relevant, full of promise and significance.

Playing at Democracy

KAUSHIK BASU

Democracy is under threat around the world, but not because dictators are overthrowing elected governments and seizing power. While authoritarian takeovers still make headlines, they are no longer the greatest threat to free societies. The real danger is more insidious: a gradual yet profound transformation of our democratic systems.

India Energy Profile: Third Highest Energy Consumer In The World – Analysis

India was the third highest energy consumer in the world in 2023 behind China and the United States.1 In 2023, India passed China to become the world’s most populous country in the world, with 1.44 billion people. Its gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.8% in 2023 from the previous year. India has one of the fastest-growing economies and the fourth-largest economy in the world.2

In 2023, India was the third-highest consumer of petroleum and other liquids, behind the United States and China. The country was ranked 12th as a consumer of natural gas, consuming 2.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2023, and was the 4th largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG).3

India’s National Electricity Plan (NEP) 2023 focuses on expanding India’s transmission network to accommodate an estimated peak demand of 458 gigawatts (GW) by 2032. The country’s Central Electricity Authority assessed that India’s installed renewable energy capacity will reach approximately 55% of total installed generation capacity by fiscal year (FY) 2026 and 66% by FY 2031, from 36% in 2023.4 The fiscal year starts on April 1 and ends on March 31.

India’s petroleum and other liquids production remained flat at 939,000 barrels per day (b/d), in 2023. However, crude oil and condensate production dropped to 604,000 b/d that year, the lowest since 1993.5 The decline in production is mainly attributed to weather-related disruptions and maturing fields.6

Taliban Divisions Laid Bare As Power Struggle Intensifies – Analysis

Mustafa Sarwar and Frud Bezhan

(RFE/RL) — The Taliban has for years presented a united front to the outside world and kept a tight lid on dissent within its ranks.

But unprecedented displays of discord have laid bare the rifts in the secretive militant group and exposed an intensifying power struggle.

The internal divisions could spill over into violence, experts warn, and trigger a new civil war that would further destabilize the volatile region.

“Despite a culture of secrecy and unity, recently there have been public shows of disunity,” said Michael Semple, a former EU and UN adviser to Afghanistan. “These suggest that the movement is under real strain.”

‘Chaotic And Uncertain’

In December, the Taliban’s Refugees Minister Khalil Haqqani was killed in a suicide bombing. He is the most senior official to be killed since the hard-line Islamist group seized power in 2021.

Privately, most of Haqqani’s supporters accused his rivals in the Taliban of ordering his assassination, according to experts.

Is Bangladesh the Next Failed State?

Michael Rubin

Until her August 5, 2024 ouster, Sheikh Hasina, a two-time prime minister who had run Bangladesh for 20 of its 54-year history, was the closest to royalty as anyone in Bangladeshi politics. Not only was she the South Asian country’s longest-serving ruler, but she was also the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founding father.

Students and opposition politicians grew more critical of her autocratic tendencies over time. The spark for the protests was a long-simmering dispute over civil service employment quotas that Hasina first expanded and then as discord grew, abolished, only to have courts reinstate them.

While quota reform initially motivated protests, a reaction to Hasina’s heavy-handed response backfired. Violent protests and vigilantism snowballed after security forces killed five protestors in mid-July. Within a couple weeks, security forces and pro-Hasina vigilantes reportedly killed slightly over 1,000 protestors. Amidst the outrage, protestors marched on Dhaka. As they reached the capital, Hasina fled. Whether she officially resigned, however, remains a subject of debate.

To fill the vacuum, protestors announced the appointment of Muhammad Yunus, an 84-year-old economist and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate popular in the West. Yunus should have said no because, while he assuages the West, changes are afoot in Bangladesh that could alter the country irrevocably.

History matters. When Pakistan formed from the 1947 partition of India it was not a single contiguous territory but rather divided into West and East Pakistan separated by more than 1,000 miles of India. While the two halves of Pakistan were technically equal, West Pakistan dominated politically, culturally, and militarily.

China’s coal power habit undercuts ‘unprecedented pace’ of clean energy

Helen Davidson

China’s energy production is putting coal and renewables in competition with each other, according to a new analysis that found continuing approval of coal-fired projects in 2024 undermined the “unprecedented” surge in clean energy production.

The analysis of China’s 2024 energy production – released on Thursday by two thinktanks, the Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) – found China’s major advances in energy production were being held back by a commitment to coal power.

China is the world’s biggest carbon emitter but also its biggest producer of renewable energy. The government has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. But experts fear those targets will remain out of reach as long as it keeps approving new coal production and prioritising coal-fired power.

Indian Army must adopt subterranean warfare to counter China. Learn from military history

Lt Gen H S Panag (retd)

On 30 January, the UK’s Financial Times reported that China is building the world’s largest military command centre in Beijing. Spanning 1,500 acres—at least 10 times the size of the Pentagon—the underground complex is designed to protect China’s military leadership, including President Xi Jinping, who also chairs the Central Military Commission, during conflicts, including nuclear war.

The command centre is in tune with the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) doctrine of subterranean warfare, which prioritises underground protection for vital command, operational, and logistical installations. It goes without saying that these installations will also be protected with anti aircraft, missile, drone, electronic warfare and cyber warfare shields.

The hostage-prisoner exchange following the 15 January ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas once again highlighted the advantages of subterranean warfare against a technologically superior adversary. Israel, with its unlimited supply of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) and conventional munitions delivered by aircraft, missiles, drones and ground operations, could not destroy or defeat the Hamas fighting from its network of underground tunnels. In footage from the exchanges, substantial number of Hamas fighters dressed in immaculate battle gear were seen orchestrating (for propaganda purposes) the handover of small groups of hostages to the international Red Cross.

Elon Musk’s China Threat

Ryan Cooper

Thus far in President Trump’s second term, shadow president Elon Musk’s rampage through America’s basic constitutional structure has gotten extensive coverage in the press. It is becoming clear that Musk and his goon squad of tech bros in their early twenties are attempting to seize direct control of the system by which the federal government disburses more than $5 trillion in payments annually, apparently so they can pick and choose who and what gets funded. And they have rifled through personnel files, scientific data involving health care and the environment, and bunches of other government information, for purposes of either propaganda or opposition research.

But there is another aspect to Musk’s rule in Washington that is partly flying under the radar: the national-security threat, particularly regarding China. Musk has huge and extensive connections to the Chinese dictatorship, both personally and through his businesses, and he has a long history of bending over backwards to appease its desires.

Now, national security has often been the justification for terrible crimes in American history—illegal surveillance, toppling democratically elected governments, wars of aggression, and so on. But that doesn’t mean the idea is meaningless. Nations like Russia, North Korea, and yes, China have carried out espionage attacks on the United States government and American citizens alike. It doesn’t make one Paul Wolfowitz to think that a man subject to stupendous influence from a sinister foreign dictatorship should not have unilateral control over the Treasury Department’s payments system.

Challenger and Incumbent Tools for U.S.-China Tech Competition

Mark Thomas

On Jan. 20, Chinese company DeepSeek released its R1 model, defying American dominance of AI. The model, which was built through software optimization rather than expensive microchip investments, beats leading competitors like OpenAI in several metrics and costs a tiny fraction of their development expenditure. The model’s innovative approach spooked microchip investors, prompting the largest single-day market cap loss in U.S. history for Nvidia.

DeepSeek is a harbinger of things to come. Regardless of which country takes the lead in AI, China will deploy its ample resources to lead the world in some, if not many, technological domains.

The nascent U.S. approach to technological competition with China consists of laws and institutions that rely on American dominance—incumbent tools. Financial sanctions depend on the hegemony of the dollar and of Western financial intermediaries. Export controls are designed to prevent U.S. technology that is not available elsewhere from reaching the wrong hands. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) enables the government to block foreign direct investments into the United States that might compromise national security, including those that could lead an adversary to acquire sensitive technology. The recent Treasury Department rule on outbound investments restricts certain transactions between U.S. and foreign entities in order to prevent U.S. companies from helping rival countries by facilitating financing, know-how, or access to talent. Each incumbent tool of economic national security is designed to prevent foreign (usually Chinese) access to American assets (usually technology) with unique capabilities.

How Israel Deceived the U.S. and Built the Bomb - Analysis

Avner Cohen and William Burr

Iran’s nuclear activities have been on the front pages for years although it remains unclear precisely how close Tehran is to building its first bomb. Iran’s relative failure in preserving the secrecy of its weapons aspirations stands in sharp contrast to the experience of Israel, the first and only Middle Eastern state to acquire nuclear weapons. During the 1960s, Israel built the bomb in near-absolute secrecy—even deceiving the U.S. government about its activities and goals.

Israel’s first leader, David Ben-Gurion, initiated Israel’s nuclear project in the mid- to late- 1950s, establishing Israel’s nuclear complex at Dimona, during a period when only three countries had nuclear weapons. A decade later, on the eve of the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel secretly assembled its first nuclear devices.

Trump To Gaza: We Will Replace You – OpEd

John Feffer

It sounds like the tagline of a horror movie. And indeed, what the far right whispers into ears, chants at hate-filled rallies, and translates into odious legislation in white-majority countries is very much a horror movie in that it is both scary and untrue.

In country after country, the far right has been promoting its horror movie premise that a horde of faceless immigrants is flooding across the border, aided by liberals, and displacing the native-born population. This campaign built around the Great Replacement conspiracy has mobilized White people of different socioeconomic backgrounds to amplify their pride, their power, and their privilege in the face of a vast, inchoate fear.

Fear wins elections, unfortunately. But let’s be clear, the Great Replacement is one of the greatest hoaxes of recent memory, right up there with the notion that COVID vaccines kill people rather than save them. Immigrants, after all, are saving countries throughout the Global North, which otherwise would be not-so-slowly erasing themselves. The EU’s fertility rate, at 1.46 in 2022, is well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The U.S. rate, which dropped to 1.62 in 2023, is not substantially different.

The Great Replacement, once whispered in the corners of bars and Internet chatrooms, is now being shouted in public places, as the far-right campaign has gone mainstream. Donald Trump is probably more responsible for this dismal state of affairs than anyone else.

The once-and-again president hasn’t just translated the Great Replacement theory into domestic policy by closing the border with Mexico and deporting as many people as possible. He has weaponized the theory as part of U.S. foreign policy. It’s no longer a matter of stopping people from leaving “shithole” countries to come to the United States.

Russia and Eurasia

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to affect the geopolitical landscape of the post-Soviet states. It has not only had a profound impact on Ukraine – and on Russia – but it is more broadly prompting changes to military partnerships, defence spending and diplomatic relationships in many countries.

Russia remains committed to its effort to subdue Ukraine, despite this proving costly not only in terms of significant losses of Russian military equipment and personnel but also increasingly in economic terms. For Ukraine, maintaining the fight and attempting to eject Russian forces has mobilised significant Western political and military support, and has led to military adaptation and innovation that is being studied globally, but has come at great cost. Elsewhere, Armenia is increasingly estranged from Russia; Georgia remains unsettled and its relations with the European Union are cooling; while further west, Moldova’s alignment with Ukraine underscores its commitment to European integration. Russia has allegedly pursued information operations in both Georgia and Moldova. Meanwhile, some countries in Central Asia are seeking greater autonomy from Russia, pursuing independent initiatives and forging relationships.

The Caucasus and Central AsiaArmenia has seen significant change since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, which culminated in Azerbaijan taking control of all Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Despite Russia being a treaty ally of Armenia, Moscow provided no direct political or military support, demonstrating to Yerevan that Russia’s security guarantees were ineffective. Armenia has since frozen its participation in activities and events related to the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and, after the 2022 flare-up, opted for an EU civilian monitoring mission over a similar offer from the CSTO. In August 2024, Armenia secured the withdrawal of Russian border guards from Zvartnots International Airport (the country’s main airport) and from the Armenia–Azerbaijan border.

Combat losses and manpower challenges underscore the importance of ‘mass’ in Ukraine

This blog post was first published on the Military Balance+ on 6 February 2025

While 2024 was a difficult year for Ukraine on the battlefield, its armed forces have managed to limit Russian territorial advances and inflict significant losses. These outcomes, achieved despite Ukraine’s acute shortage of ammunition in the first half of 2024 and manpower difficulties, show that Russia’s successes on the battlefield are certainly not decisive.

Equipped but not staffed: Ukraine’s challenge for 2025Ukraine’s armed forces are not currently facing a critical situation with regards to equipment; however, they will likely need significantly more weapons, especially modern Western-made systems, to reliably stop Russian assaults. Launching offensives and liberating occupied territory would require considerably more materiel. If the West were to reduce or halt its support, the situation would seriously degrade in the medium term.

Three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the first results of joint ventures, partner programmes and larger contracts between Ukraine and various defence companies and governments in the West are progressively bearing fruit. These will likely pick up steam throughout 2025. Furthermore, Ukraine’s own defence industry has been able to adapt, producing some key equipment at scale, such as the 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled artillery system at a reported production rate of 16 per month. This can be seen from the diverse range of units across the Ground Forces, National Guard and Marines equipped with the 2S22.

Nevertheless, the main challenge Ukraine currently faces is manpower, specifically with regards to management and allocation.

Articles of a Trump ‘Peace’ Plan

Mick Ryan

The first aim in war is to win, the second is to prevent defeat, the third is to shorten it, and the fourth and most important, which must never be lost to sight, is to make a just and durable peace. Sir Maurice Hankey, quoted in Victory, Peace and Justice

For those interested in war termination and the resolution of core issues in a conflict, the 2013 article by Beatrice Heuser, Victory, Peace and Justice: The Neglected Trinity, is a must read. It explores 21st century concepts of victory, and the need to achieve enduring and just peace settlements in war termination negotiations. It is very relevant to events of the past week.

Over the past few days, President Trump and members of his administration have made comments about the ‘peace’ plan they appear to be assembling for Ukraine. Trump has also spoken with Zelenskyy and Putin about the plan.

Therefore, I wanted to provide a short assessment about what appears to be the key contours of the Trump ‘peace’ plan, informed by the comments of Trump and administration officials in the last few days.

I don’t think there are any big surprises here. Much of the following has been the subject of speculation for some time.

Peace Plan Article I: “We want our money back”.

Putin’s Ukraine: The End of War and the Price of Russian Occupation

Nataliya Gumenyuk

From afar, the situation Ukraine faces after three years of full-scale war with Russia seems clear. Over the past 12 months, Moscow has intensified its assault on civilian populations, sending drones, missiles, and bombs in almost daily attacks on cities across the country. Infrastructure and power stations have been relentlessly targeted. Millions of people have been displaced, and millions more who fled the country after 2022 have been unable to return. Even as Ukraine has struggled to hold the frontlines, its soldiers continue to be injured and killed.

Given these mounting costs, and that Ukraine has, against all odds, managed to defend 80 percent of its territory, one might expect its citizens to support any effort to end the war. That would be sensible in the eyes of many Western analysts. Just as Russia seems unlikely to make major new advances, it will also be very difficult for Ukrainian forces, contending with an enemy that is prepared to burn through huge quantities of ammunition and manpower, to recapture all the territory now controlled by Russia. In this view, securing a cease-fire and bringing relief to the bulk of the country should be a top priority.

Yet that is not how Ukrainians see it. With U.S. President Donald Trump’s vow to quickly end the war—and even before that, the threat from the United States and its allies that they might reduce military aid in the future—Ukraine’s government and population have had to take seriously the discussion of a cease-fire. But such a scenario diverges sharply from the victory plan that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined in the fall of 2024. And many Ukrainians themselves are deeply skeptical of a settlement, saying that no deal is better than a bad deal. Indeed, in Western eyes, Kyiv’s determination to keep fighting—sometimes in grueling months-long battles to defend ruined towns and villages—may seem irrational.

Can Trump Power an AI Boom?

Christina Lu

U.S. President Donald Trump’s longtime ambitions of ushering in an artificial intelligence boom have only been supercharged by the emergence of Chinese start-up DeepSeek’s new AI model, which torpedoed markets last week and wiped hundreds of billions of dollars from AI chipmaker Nvidia’s market cap.

But the DeepSeek disruption has also underscored the deep uncertainty over just how much energy will be necessary to power Trump’s big AI push. The hulking data centers that underpin the technology are notoriously energy-hungry, prompting some predictions of explosive electricity demand in the coming years.

The Wiretap: USAID Was A Big Help In Ukraine’s Cyber War With Russia. Not Any More.

Thomas Brewster

Both before the war and after Russia’s invasion in 2022, United States Agency for International Development (USAID)-funded projects bolstered Ukraine's digital defenses in various ways. In particular, USAID projects helped to secure the country from cyberattacks.

Progress on that work has come to a grinding halt since the Trump administration ordered USAID staff and their contractors to stop work, while Elon Musk’s DOGE reorganizes and, unless courts can stop them, dismantle the aid agency.

The most prominent project, now on hold, was called the USAID Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure in Ukraine Activity. Contracted out to Maryland-based government provider DAI, it announced a project to help secure the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ global diplomatic communications networks in October.

Julie Koenen, USAID mission director in Ukraine, said at the time that USAID was committed to ensuring “essential government functions such as diplomacy can continue." Up until January 17, the cyber mission was posting on its Facebook page, encouraging companies to sign up to a project to help Ukrainian cybersecurity businesses enter the U.S. market. The organization’s social pages have gone quiet since Trump became president. Neither the DAI

Building Resilience: Closing the Climate Knowledge Gap in the U.S. Military - Opinion

Dr. Emily Pesicka

Climate change is transforming global security landscapes with significant implications for national defense. Rising sea levels endanger coastal military bases, and extreme weather events disrupt operations, making climate change a powerful “threat multiplier” that intensifies existing challenges and creates new ones. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has recognized this pressing reality, integrating climate considerations into strategic operations, infrastructure resilience, energy modernization, and long-term defense planning. The DoD defines climate change as “Variations in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer that encompass increases and decreases in temperature, shifts in precipitation, and changing risk of certain types of severe weather events (DODD 4715.21)”. Yet, as climate-driven disruptions become more severe, assessing whether the DoD’s current approach is robust enough to confront these escalating threats is critical. Balancing immediate operational needs with sustainable, climate-resilient strategies is a significant challenge amidst monetary constraints. Although the DoD has focused on strategic operations, infrastructure, and long-term planning, there is a clear need to enhance climate education for warfighters.

Cuba And Venezuela: An Alliance Founded On Socialism And Anti-Imperialism – Analysis

Matija Šerić

At the beginning of December, the Venezuelan Ministry of National Commerce announced that it had held important discussions with Cuban representatives (officials from the Chamber of Commerce and the Ministry of Food Industry and Foreign Trade) aimed at strengthening bilateral economic cooperation.

The Venezuelans emphasized “supporting the Cuban people through a program for selling food at fair prices and quality, ensuring market access.” They also stated that Venezuela and Cuba are “united brothers in solidarity!” They could have easily added: “in difficult times,” as the usual hardships for Cuba and Venezuela in recent years have become even more extreme. Despite the challenges, the Cuban-Venezuelan alliance forged in the late 20th and early 21st centuries remains steadfast.

The Beginnings of a Strategic Partnership

The strategic alliance between Cuba and Venezuela began with the rise of the colorful Hugo Chávez to power in Venezuela in 1999. Inspired by the romantic Cuban Revolution and Fidel Castro as its undisputed leader, Chávez initiated close cooperation with the communist island. The foundational ties were their shared socialist ideology and anti-imperialism (read: anti-Americanism). Chávez developed a personal alliance with Castro based on two principles: 1) anti-globalist ideas resisting American imperialism; 2) socialist ideals from Marx and Engels. Chávez referred to Castro as his mentor and declared Cuba’s communist dictatorship to be a revolutionary democracy.

Ukraine’s Battlefield Fights Are Messy: Its Political Battles Are Getting Messy, Too – Analysis

Mike Eckel

The mayor of Ukraine’s capital city is feuding with the president. The defense minister is under investigation as part of a bitter fight over control of weapons purchases. Recruiters are struggling to get enough men to the front. Ukrainians are fighting calls to lower the draft age.

And last week, two more towns fell to Russian forces, though the losses were more symbolic than tactical.

Ukraine is struggling to fight an existential war of defense, trying to hold back the nearly 3-year-old all-out invasion by Russia. Exhausted and battered, the population has mainly continued to rally behind the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

But fractures are appearing in the country’s leadership and political class. How wide and deep they may become is an open question.

Regardless, they come at an inopportune moment for Kyiv, as momentum builds for a cease-fire with Moscow, with Ukraine’s main weapons provider, the United States, eager to end the war and diplomacy heating up ahead of the Munich Security Conference this weekend.

“These facts tell you that the political process remains active in Ukraine even during the war,” said Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine analyst at the London-based think tank Chatham House. “There is much hope that there could indeed be a cease-fire and that political competition will restart. It is almost like returning to normal life, to have elections and to have competition.”

What is living intelligence, the new frontier in AI?

Theara Coleman

Artificial intelligence has been at the center of the tech world, but it's not the only technology businesses need to prepare for. In the future, AI will combine with other advancing technologies to create a new wave of personalized AI capable of anticipating users' actions and evolving independently, said Amy Webb, a futurist and professor at the NYU Stern School of Business, at the Harvard Business Review. This phenomenon, called living intelligence, could be the next big thing.

What is living intelligence?

Artificial intelligence is "just one of three groundbreaking technologies shifting the business landscape," said Webb. The other two — advanced sensors and biotechnology — are "less visible, though no less important," and have been "quietly advancing." In the future, the convergence of these three technologies will "underpin a new reality that will shape the future decisions of every leader across industries." This new living intelligence encompasses "systems that can sense, learn, adapt and evolve," made possible through the mix of all three technologies.

The formation of living intelligence could "drive a supercycle of exponential growth and disruption across multiple industries," said Inc. "Some companies are going to miss this," said Webb. Laser focus on AI will lead them to "find out that they are disrupted again earlier than they thought they would [be]."

The Global South Needs to Own Its AI Revolution

KATE KALLOT

Artificial intelligence is reshaping global power dynamics, and those of us in the Global South – from Africa and the Caribbean to Southeast Asia and South America – must seize this moment to advance a community-driven approach to the ascending technology.

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) stand at a crossroads with AI: it could become a mechanism for asserting our sovereignty and delivering inclusive prosperity, or the latest tool of colonization and exploitation. For centuries, our labor, natural resources, and knowledge systems have been used to fuel progress in the Global North. The development and deployment of AI could follow this pattern, leaving LMICs without a stake in the technologies that will underpin our collective prosperity and ability to thrive.

But LMICs have an opportunity to avert this outcome. We already have the talent, resources, and vision to ensure that AI meets our needs. With increased coordination, investment in distributed computing, and grassroots innovation, we can establish a fairer technological order that creates value for Global South communities, strengthens their agency, and solves the most pressing challenges facing the planet.

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