China-India Relations: The Thaw-Provoke-Repeat Cycle

Rahul Jaybhay

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China-India relations are back to sizzling again after a recent thaw. China recently created two new counties in Hotan Prefecture – an area in Aksai Chin that India claims as part of its Union Territory of Ladakh. The administrative move is expected to consolidate China’s de facto control of the region. The Indian government responded by vehemently protesting, with the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, decrying “China’s illegal and forcible occupation” of the Indian territory.

The recent spat was at odds with the China-India thaw taking place at the border after four years of a standoff. Chinese and Indian troops had faced off along the disputed border since the June 2020 Galwan Valley clash that claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese soldiers. In a December 18 meeting between India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, the two sides showed signs of rapprochement, discussing military disengagement and the willingness to adopt a “new framework for peace and tranquility” to manage boundary disputes – and the larger bilateral relationship.

The Chinese cartographic updates are bewildering in this context. Yet it fits within a cycle that Indian policymakers have faced since the Cold War: a Sino-Indian thaw, followed by a concoction or recycling of the boundary dispute that undermines troubleshooting of the already-tense bilateral ties. China’s latest move in declaring new counties in disputed territory exactly rhymes with its Cold War strategy, which continues to circumscribe progress in relations.

Solving India’s Industrialization Puzzle

RABAH AREZKI and PARTHA SEN

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At first glance, the Indian economy appears to be thriving. Since 2000, annual GDP growth has averaged 6%, largely fueled by the service sector. High-value-added services, in particular, have emerged as major drivers of exports and GDP growth.

China Vows to 'Combat Terrorism' After ISIS-Claimed Attack Kills Citizen

Tom O'Connor

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China has asserted its international right to take on insurgents threatening the lives of its citizens after an attack claimed by the Islamic State militant group (ISIS) killed a Chinese citizen in northeastern Afghanistan.

"Regarding terrorism, our position is that terrorism is the common enemy of all mankind," Chinese Embassy to the United States spokesperson Liu Pengyu told Newsweek.

"It is the common responsibility of the international community to combat terrorism and prevent tragedies from happening again," Liu said. "China opposes all forms of terrorism and resolutely safeguards the safety of Chinese citizens, projects and institutions overseas."

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said her country was "deeply shocked at the attack," which reportedly took place in Takhar province, "and strongly condemns it."

"We express our condolences over the lives lost," she told reporters on Thursday. "China has lodged serious protests to Afghanistan right after the attack, and asked the country to conduct thorough investigations into the attack, and bring the perpetrators to justice."

Rebalancing China’s Economy: Stimulus, Confidence, and Self-Sufficiency

Zongyuan Zoe Liu

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2025 marks the conclusion of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, a time for policymakers to present their scorecard and set goals for the next five years. To ensure a positive outcome, Chinese leaders will likely roll out active stimulus measures in the spring while continue pursuing self-sufficiency and technological advancement.

President Trump’s threat of steep tariffs is not the most significant challenge for Chinese economic policymakers. If Beijing can leverage rising tariffs to push domestic reform and increase household consumption, it can sustain balanced growth despite short-term pains. Even so, Beijing’s consumption-promotion measures will not sacrifice investment in strategic sectors. Chinese President Xi remains convinced that achieving self-reliance and technological advancement can heal economic woes, shake off the “Century of Humiliation,” and enshrine him as a paramount leader.

The real challenge for Chinese policymakers lies at home. While they have experience designing and implementing industrial policies, they struggle to mobilize Chinese consumers to spend to drive growth. Without fixing public pessimism about the economy, direct household cash handouts are unlikely to spur household spending over saving. Beijing’s biggest challenge is restoring policy credibility and market confidence.

How Elon Musk Could Torpedo Trump's China Plans

Micah McCartney

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The U.S. must be "on alert" about President Donald Trump ally Elon Musk's conflict of interests with China, a former U.S. naval official says.

Why It Matters

Musk, whose special government worker status allows him to continue his work as CEO of Tesla, X (formerly Twitter) and SpaceX, does significant business in China, Tesla's second-largest market, with annual vehicle sales rising by 8.8 percent in China in 2024. Recently, Musk has argued China should allow X on its heavily censored internet given that TikTok, owned by China's ByteDance remained accessible to Americans.

Observers—including former Trump adviser Steve Bannon—have pointed to a conflict of interest for the world's richest man and head of the newly minted Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), pointing to remarks by Musk that have aligned with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda.

What To Know

Mike Studeman, retired rear admiral and Office of Naval Intelligence commander during the Biden administration, recently said Musk was "compromised and co-opted by the Chinese" and "a Chinese sympathizer of high order."

War Game Pits China Against Taiwan in All-Out Cyberwar

Nate Nelson

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If China attacked Taiwan, how could Taiwan defend its critical communications infrastructure from cyberattack?

Last year, Dr. Nina A. Kollars and Jason Vogt — both associate professors at the US Naval War College (USNWC) Cyber and Innovation Policy Institute (CIPI) — designed a war game to inspire some novel strategies. They enlisted government and private sector cybersecurity experts at Black Hat and DEF CON to participate, and presented the results at ShmooCon earlier this month.

The experts came up with 65 ways Taiwan's government could prepare for such a war, ranging from the low tech, like using ham radio when mobile networks go down, to the ambitious, such as investing in modular nuclear reactors or tidal power generation, to the outlandish, for example using civilians or cultural artifacts as deterrents against military strikes.

China’s Alternate Route to Europe

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China is actively seeking a route to Europe that bypasses Russia, driven by Western sanctions that obstruct trade and instability along sea routes. Such a route would enable China to expand its exports, enhance its competitiveness and speed up delivery while increasing trade volumes. At a time when the Chinese economy is under immense pressure, achieving these objectives is critical. Fortunately for Beijing, next door is Central Asia, which not only includes dynamic developing economies such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan but also could serve as China’s link with Europe.

In late 2024, Kyrgyzstan hosted the launch ceremony for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a long-awaited project along the historical Silk Road. Originally proposed by Uzbekistan in 1996, the project gained traction only recently due to geopolitical pressures stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia and Belarus. The CKU railway is expected to transport up to 15 million tons of cargo annually, cutting delivery times to Europe by seven days compared to current routes. For Central Asia’s landlocked nations, the railway promises transformative benefits, including access to China’s coastal ports. However, building the infrastructure demands substantial investment, time and resources – factors complicated by China’s economic slowdown. Furthermore, regional players such as Russia are wary of Beijing’s expanding influence in what they consider their sphere of influence.

China's Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic

Stephanie Pezard, Irina A. Chindea, Naoko Aoki, Domenique Lumpkin & Yuliya Shokh

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How might China's scientific, information, and commercial activities in the Arctic contribute to the country's broader security goals by enabling the collection of intelligence, allowing access to critical infrastructure, or providing other types of military advantages? China's activities in the Arctic have increased, and China's overall approach to strategic competition, which fuses the public with the private and the civilian sphere with the military, has heightened U.S. concerns that China might be on its way to becoming a security and military actor in the Arctic and that Russia is enabling this pathway.

In this report, the authors present an analysis of China's economic, scientific, and information activities in the Arctic and call special attention to the intelligence collection and military risks that they might present, including the threat signals for these risks. The authors explore five categories of activities: natural resource exploitation, knowledge development, access to infrastructure, data transmission, and public diplomacy.

SOF Competitive Campaigning in Great Power Competition

Monte Erfourth

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Introduction

Great power competition aims to advance and protect national interests while avoiding costly wars. Unlike traditional warfare, competition does not focus solely on defined victories or end states. Instead, it emphasizes continuous, national-level campaigns designed to secure a lasting peace that ensures the U.S. economic, societal, and military advantage. This steady-state competition involves strategic maneuvering to advance national interests at the lowest cost possible, reflecting the move-and-counter-move dynamics of international relations.

Competitive campaigning emerged from the 2022 National Defense Strategy as a central framework for orchestrating and synchronizing simultaneous operations to achieve national objectives across the competition continuum. This article explores the principles, strategies, and challenges of competitive campaigning, emphasizing its role in maintaining global security and advancing U.S. interests and explaining the role that Special Operations Forces (SOF) can play in a successful campaign.

A SOF Competition Campaign Imagined

Imagine, if you will, special operations forces (SOF) conducting a globally coordinated irregular warfare campaign in the gray zone to deter, degrade, deny, and defeat threats posed by China, Russia, or Iran to United States national security interests. This campaign would not be conducted in the conventional battle spaces of war but within the subtle and ambiguous realm of the gray zone, foreign internal defense, influence, cyber operations, proxy conflicts, and covert actions. Such efforts would mirror current operations, leveraging SOF's unique capabilities to adapt and operate in austere and politically sensitive environments. Yet, as great power competition evolves, the question arises: how can SOCOM and the SOF enterprise adapt their training, education, and operational paradigms to confront these increasingly complex and multifaceted challenges?

Trump may decide to leave WHO next week. Here are seven possible impacts on the U.S. and the world

Gretchen Vogel

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One of Donald Trump’s first moves after he’s sworn in as the 47th U.S. president on 20 January, his transition team has reportedly said, will be to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO). Trump started the process to quit WHO in July 2020, during his first presidential term. He said the organization was too close to China and claimed, contrary to the evidence, that WHO had helped cover up initial spread of COVID-19. Because the withdrawal process takes a year, President Joe Biden was able to reverse the decision when he took office in January 2021.

Now, Trump has a real chance to part ways with the United Nations’s health agency, although Congress could try to block the move, and there would likely be intense diplomatic efforts to keep the U.S. on board. An exit would take effect in January 2026 at the earliest. It would put the U.S. in the company of Liechtenstein as the only U.N. member countries not in WHO.

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WHO declined to comment directly. “From our side we are ready to work together. The relationship between the WHO and the United States has been a good model of partnership for many years and we believe that will be the case,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a December 2024 press conference. “I believe that U.S. leaders understand that the U.S. cannot be safe unless the rest of the world is safe.”

America’s departure from the WHO would harm everyone

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DONALD TRUMP has once again set his sights on the World Health Organisation (WHO). On January 20th America’s newly inaugurated president signed an executive order signalling that his country would withdraw from the UN agency. The order cites the WHO’s mishandling of covid-19, failure to reform and lack of independence as reasons for withdrawal.

Hamas Confirms Names of Four More Israeli Hostages to Be Freed from Gaza

Michael D. Carroll

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The Iran-backed Hamas militant group announced on Friday the names of four hostages it claims will be released on Saturday as part of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.

What's The Context

Israel has yet to confirm the identities of the hostages, however a Hamas spokesman has said that hostages Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy, Liri Albag are set to return to Israel on Saturday.

What To Know

The release, which has been confirmed as scheduled for Saturday, is set to take place in exchange for the freedom of dozens of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons or detention facilities. The logistics of this exchange of detainees for hostages has not been released, however it is possible the handover will be carried out in a similar way to the release of the first three hostages since the beginning of the current ceasefire deal, Romi Gonen, 24, Emily Damari, 28, and Doron Steinbrecher, 31, last Sunday. This saw the Red Cross bus hostages and detainees separately into Israel and Gaza respectively.

How Many Hostages Were Already Released?

Before the current ceasefire agreement, at least 117 hostages had been released, primarily through prisoner exchanges with Israel. Israeli authorities estimate that at least 98 hostages remain in Hamas captivity, though this number may include the remains of dozens who were killed or died during the conflict.

Donald Trump Pulling US Troops From Europe in Blow to NATO Allies: Report

Isabel van Brugen

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President Donald Trump plans to pull about 20,000 U.S. troops from Europe, according to a leading Italian news agency.

A European diplomatic source told ANSA that Trump, who entered office on Monday for a second term, wants to reduce the American contingent in Europe by about 20 percent and plans to ask for a "financial contribution" for the maintenance of the remaining troops.

Why It Matters

The news is likely to worry Washington's NATO allies in Europe at a time when Russia's relations with the West are at their lowest point since the Cold War. Russian officials have repeatedly insinuated that Moscow could orchestrate attacks against members of the NATO military alliance, in response to their support of Ukraine throughout the war.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during inauguration ceremonies in the U.S. Capitol rotunda on January 20, 2025, in Washington. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Trump orders plan for release of JFK and MLK assassination files

Mike Wendling

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US President Donald Trump has ordered officials to make plans to declassify documents related to three of the most consequential assassinations in US history - the killings of John F Kennedy, Robert F Kennedy, and Martin Luther King Jr.

"A lot of people are waiting for this for long, for years, for decades," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. "And everything will be revealed."

The order directs top administration officials to present a plan to declassify the documents within 15 days. That does not make it certain it will happen, however.

President John F Kennedy was killed in Dallas in 1963. His brother Robert F Kennedy was assassinated while running for president in California 1968, just two months after King, America's most famous civil rights leader, was murdered in Memphis, Tennessee.

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Russia’s Wartime Economy isn’t as Weak as it Looks

Dr Richard Connolly

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Russia regained the momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine last year. Although Russian progress remains slow and costly, the outlook for the year ahead is bleak. Ukraine’s energy system has been heavily damaged by Russian air strikes, and its forces continue to lose ground in southern Donetsk, where the heaviest fighting is taking place.

Perhaps most importantly, political shifts in some of Kyiv’s key allies – especially the US – could result in crucial financial and military aid being substantially reduced in the year ahead. Together, these trends raise the prospect of Ukraine being forced to accept a crushing defeat after three years of heroic resistance.

Against this lugubrious backdrop, many analysts have seized on what appears to be a rare bright spot: Russia’s faltering ‘war economy’, which – according to some – is ‘Putin’s greatest weakness’. An acute labour shortage, persistent and rising inflation caused by soaring military expenditure, and ever-tightening sanctions will – it is claimed – finally bring about an economic crisis that will force Moscow to abandon its maximalist aims in Ukraine and bring about an end to the war on terms more acceptable to Kyiv and its allies.

Starving Russia’s War Economy

Noel Foster

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The most effective general in Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a diminutive economist by the name of Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina. When Russia’s frontlines were collapsing in summer 2023—and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu were shamed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who then proceeded to mutiny and march on Moscow—Nabiullina calmly kept the ruble afloat and counteracted Western sanctions. A product of a workingclass ethnic Tatar family who pushed the limits of late Soviet meritocracy, Nabiullina has preserved the ruble since being named Central Bank governor in 2013, in the face of successive rounds of Western sanctions and war following Putin’s February 2014 takeover of Crimea. One would do well to listen to Nabiullina’s warnings, therefore, when she told the Duma that the main threat to the Russian economy comes not from the West’s sanctions, but rather from Russia’s labor shortages.1 In an overheated war economy, 85 percent of Russian companies reported worker shortages, and salaries for semi-skilled positions increased by up to 20 percent.2 That is untenable.

For this very reason, Putin has done the unthinkable, replacing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a former military officer, with an economist, Andrey Belousov, on May12,2024. Since 2012, Shoigu had served Putin loyally, if not well. As Russia’s military entered a third year of a costly stalemate, his position had nonetheless seemed secure, but as Kremlin press secretary Dmitri Peskov explained, “we are gradually approaching the situation of the mid-80s when the share of expenses for the security bloc in the economy was 7.4%. It’s not critical, but it’s extremely important.”3 The Kremlin is engaged in an industrial-age war with Ukraine. Much like the World Wars, this is a war of production, pitting Russia’s globalized wartime economy against that of Ukraine and its allies in a war of attrition. For Putin, war is too important to be left solely to the generals, and so Russia’s technocrats and economists are increasingly taking over.

Hostages Are Being Freed. Some Israelis Ask: At What Cost?

Patrick Kingsley and Natan Odenheimer

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When three Israeli hostages were released from Gaza on Sunday, Meytal Ofer, an Israeli kindergarten teacher, felt two competing emotions.

First and foremost, Ms. Ofer felt joy — three of her compatriots, all women, were being released after more than 470 days of captivity.

Yet somewhere in the back of her mind was also a sense of hurt. To free the women, as well as thirty other hostages expected to be released in the coming six weeks, Israel has promised to release roughly 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some of whom are serving long jail terms for killing Israelis.

One of those prisoners murdered Ms. Ofer’s father in an ax attack 11 years ago.

“I’m overjoyed they’re back,” Ms. Ofer, 48, said of the hostages. But, she added, “There are painful feelings knowing that the person who killed my Dad is going to be free.”

For both Israelis and Palestinians, the sealing of a cease-fire has spurred joy and celebration but it has also come at a price for both peoples.

As first Israeli hostages are released, Hamas sends a message: It is far from being destroyed

Mostafa Salem

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Israel’s longest war has so far failed to destroy its main enemy, Hamas, which, despite suffering devastating losses, is framing the Gaza ceasefire agreement as a victory for itself – and a failure for Israel.

Soon after a ceasefire came into effect on Sunday, masked gunmen emerged in vehicles roaming the devastated streets of Gaza in celebration. Members of an elite unit wore their full uniform at Al Saraya Square in Gaza City during the hostage transfer. It was Hamas’ reminder that its armed wing was still here 15 months after Israel set out to destroy them.

One of Hamas’ main goals for taking some 250 hostages during its brazen October 7, 2023, attack on Israel was to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. As Israel pounded Gaza in response Hamas vowed not to return the hostages until Israel withdrew its forces from the enclave, permanently ended the war, and allowed for rebuilding.

After more than a year of fighting, Hamas and Israel in recent days reached a phased agreement that will see the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in addition to a 42-day ceasefire and the entry of aid. The deal also opens the door for further negotiations that could lead to a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire.

“(The agreement) achieves all these conditions… the resistance has achieved what the Palestinian people want,” Hamas senior political member Osama Hamdan told Al Jazeera after a deal was reached.

Military trends to watch in 2025

Mick Ryan

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The new year has begun with a rush of events. In Europe, governments are posturing for the arrival of the second Donald Trump administration. On his first day in office, Trump signed around 100 executive orders.

In Ukraine, both sides continue their brutal and bitter ground and aerial attacks, seeking to position themselves for any negotiations in 2025. In the Middle East, Syria remains unsettled after the fall of the Assad regime, Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, while Israel continues its operations against Hezbollah. Iran, drastically weakened over the past year, watches on nervously as the man it allegedly tried to assassinate returns to the White House. In the Pacific, China has unveiled two new stealthy aircraft, launched naval barges suitable for an invasion of Taiwan, and continues its coercion against the Philippines, Taiwan and other neighbours.

These events indicate that the year ahead will be at least as uncertain, violent and chaotic as 2024. However, besides the fighting and posturing of different actors across the globe, key trends will affect the capacity and sustainability of military forces and influence the future of war. Here are five key trends to watch in 2025.

FP at Davos: Fighting Cyber Wars

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This year began with conflict on nearly every continent, in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, and Haiti. But it’s not just armed violence. War has spread to the digital world. Cyberattacks can target civilian infrastructure, create new biothreats, and sow disinformation. What tools can private and governmental actors use to defend against these risks?

At this year’s World Economic Forum summit, FP’s Ravi Agrawal moderated the session ​​“Defending the Cyber Frontlines,” in discussion with leaders in technology, defense, and humanitarian work. The panel included Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross; Joe Kaeser, chairman of the supervisory board of Siemens Energy; Andrius Kubilius, the European Commission’s commissioner for defense and space; Matthew Prince, the co-founder and CEO of Cloudflare; and Samir Saran, president of the Observer Research Foundation.

“Preparation of the Battlefield”: Cybersecurity Experts Testify on Global Threats to the Homeland

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This week, the House Committee on Homeland Security, led by Chairman Mark E. Green, MD (R-TN), held a hearing to examine global cybersecurity threats to the homeland, featuring testimony from the private sector. Witness testimony was provided by Adam Meyers, senior vice president of Counter Adversary Operations at CrowdStrike; retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Brandon Wales, vice president of cybersecurity strategy at SentinelOne; and Kemba Walden, president at Paladin Global Institute.

In the Committee’s first hearing of the 119th Congress, retired Rear Admiral Montgomery revealed the startling extent of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ongoing access to our networks, as well as the sinister reason behind China’s pre-positioning efforts in our critical infrastructure. Meyers further outlined how threat actors, such as China, Russia, and North Korea, find and exploit known or zero-day vulnerabilities in American technology. As America’s adversaries increasingly use cyberspace as a battlefield, every witness called for enhanced cyber readiness across the government and private networks. Witnesses agreed the danger lies in failing to prioritize cybersecurity efforts––whether defensive or offensive.

5 Physics Equations Everyone Should Know

Rhett Allain

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All the tech we rely on, from cars to smartphones, was engineered using physics. You don’t need to know the science to use these things. But a well-rounded human should understand at least some of the key concepts—along with some music, art, history, and economics. Robert Heinlein said it all in Time Enough for Love:

“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”

Three Reasons Why AI’s Momentum Could Stall in 2025

DAMBISA MOYO

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The rapid pace of technological advances over the past year, especially in artificial intelligence, has provided many reasons for optimism. But as we head into 2025, there are signs that AI’s momentum may be waning.

Since 2023, the dominant narrative has been that the AI revolution will drive productivity and economic growth, paving the way for extraordinary technological breakthroughs. PwC, for example, projects that AI will add nearly $16 trillion to global GDP by 2030 – a 14% increase. Meanwhile, a study by Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey R. Raymond estimates that generative AI could boost worker productivity by 14% on average and by 34% for new and low-skilled workers.

Recent announcements by Google and OpenAI seem to support this narrative, offering a glimpse into a future that not long ago was confined to science fiction. Google’s Willow quantum chip, for example, reportedly completed a benchmark computation – a task that would take today’s fastest supercomputers ten septillion years (ten followed by 24 zeros) – in under five minutes. Likewise, OpenAI’s new o3 model represents a major technological breakthrough, bringing AI closer to the point where it can outperform humans in any cognitive task, a milestone known as “artificial general intelligence.”

But there are at least three reasons why the AI boom could lose steam in 2025. First, investors are increasingly questioning whether AI-related investments can deliver significant returns, as many companies are struggling to generate enough revenue to offset the skyrocketing costs of developing cutting-edge models. While training OpenAI’s GPT-4 cost more than $100 million, training future models will likely cost more than $1 billion, raising concerns about the financial sustainability of these efforts.

Military Strategy and the Political Dynamics of War

Joseph Roger Clark 

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Colin Gray, the late scholar of strategy, was correct — politics is master. War is a political event. Although this observation is most often attributed to Carl von Clausewitz, it can be traced back to Cicero. It can also be found in the military texts of ancient China.[i] Nonetheless, the political dynamics of war often fail to be fully appreciated by military strategy. This condition helps explain a recent inability on the part of nations to wield military force to secure their political objectives. It suggests a need for military strategy predicated on a more nuanced understanding of the political dynamics of war.

War is a simultaneous collection of political and military events. The political milieu that catalyzes war shapes the belligerents’ strategic centers of gravity and forges the strategic logic of the war. However, the political dynamics responsible for war continue after the exchange of fire. Military events and their interpretation continue to affect political dynamics, which in turn affects military efficacy. Military strategy must appreciate — and be responsive to — these recursive relationships. The consideration of political dynamics cannot be cleaved from military strategy without placing the objective of the war in serious jeopardy.

This article posits the following argument: military strategies must fully appreciate the political dynamics of war. To be clear, political dynamics are not synonymous with political conditions. It would be difficult to find practitioners or scholars arguing that military strategy need not consider the political context. It would be equally difficult to find examples of military strategy devoid of political considerations. Yet, what is often missing is consideration of the evolving recursive relationships — the political dynamics — that exist between the political and military aspects of war.

Theory to Reality: Defensive Operations Confirm Clausewitz’s Theory

Jacob R. Bright

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Since its publication in 1832, Carl von Clausewitz’s Vom Kriege (On War) has been an academic pillar for Western military strategists, influencing military doctrine and shaping the debate on power relationships. Clausewitz, a Prussian military officer, fought against the French during the Napoleonic Wars and participated in the Waterloo campaign, which culminated in the surrender of Napoleon Bonaparte. His firsthand experience in these battles provided him with valuable insights into the nature and character of war. In addition to his combat experience, Clausewitz spent considerable time in staff roles within the Prussian Army, affording him the intellectual space to examine the complexities of conflict.[i] This unique blend of theoretical investigation and battlefield experience lends authenticity to “On War,” solidifying its high status in the intellectual study of military theory and making it a seminal text that continues to be studied and debated.

Central to Clausewitz’s theory is the argument that defensive operations hold an inherent advantage over offensive operations[ii]— a proclamation this article argues resonates in contemporary armed conflicts. The aim is to confirm the credibility of Clausewitz’s assertion by examining its relevance through four core tenets of warfare that undergird his philosophy: resource supply, psychological influence, public support, and fortifications. This article first discusses Clausewitzian theory in relation to defensive operations, a brief history of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, and then considers the strategic implications of the culminating point of the attack. The bulk of this article’s analysis defines each tenet according to Clausewitz’s writings, then describes how these four tenets provide defensive advantages to both Ukrainians and Russians amid the ongoing conflict. [iii] The aim of this article is to affirm Clausewitz’s assertion that “defense is a stronger form of fighting than attack.”[iv]