India's PLI Scheme: Challenges and the path forward

Miheer Karandikar

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Industrial policy has made a comeback recently, and India is no exception. The Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme is India’s most significant yet, spanning 14 sectors with an outlay of Rs 1.97 lakh crore. The PLI scheme incentivises companies to manufacture in the country by giving them subsidies based on the value of the goods they manufacture. However, their success has been mixed, to say the least. A recent report in the Indian Express sought the jobs generated by these schemes. Only four sectors have achieved their targets, two have achieved half, and the other seven are nowhere close. So what’s the problem? Production-linked incentives alone do not and cannot solve the issues that all these sectors have.

Questioning the Sector Selection

Under the PLI schemes, the government provides money upfront for companies to invest in land, labour, capital, etc, to set up manufacturing facilities in the country. The reasoning can be that the production cost in the country is high, so the government subsidises some of the cost to allow companies to be competitive. The cost of production can be high for various reasons, including costly inputs (land, labour, capital), costly compliance, etc. These reasons can apply to any sector. Then why were these 13 ones chosen in the first place?

Taiwan Crisis 2.0: Could China’s Coast Guard Seal the Island Off?

Jane Rickard

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From ‘Blockade’ to ‘Quarantine’: How China May Tighten Its Grip on Taiwan

The West had better think carefully about how it would handle China imposing a nominally civil quarantine on Taiwan, because that’s the tactic that increasingly looks like an opening move for Beijing in taking control of the island.

A quarantine, imposing limited controls on access to the island, offered strong advantages for China even before Taiwan said in October that a blockade, surrounding it with forces to cut off all access, would be an act of war. Taiwan’s statement means China is even more likely to choose quarantine as a first step.

This use of the word ‘quarantine’ was coined in an important Center for Strategic and International Studies report last year. The authors foresaw that the Chinese government might ban only certain types of goods from entering Taiwan, or it could forbid ships from using a certain port. The measures would be enforced by nominally non-military forces, such as the China Coastguard.

Conceivably, China could see whether it could get away once with a quarantine action, then, noting success in asserting its authority, do it again and gradually tighten restrictions until they turned into a blockade—salami slicing, as it does in so many areas of international affairs.

A Chinese actor was abducted from Thailand. His swift return has sparked hopes – and fears – back home

Nectar Gan, Joyce Jiang and Kocha Olarn

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For three days, Wang Xing lived in fear. His head had been shaved. He couldn’t sleep and was in a strange place where his captors forced him to type – the first phase of training for an unwanted role.

The 31-year-old Chinese actor had flown to Bangkok for what he expected to be a movie casting call. Instead, he was picked up at the airport and driven to a scam center in Myanmar’s Myawaddy, a notorious cyber-fraud hub across the border from Thailand.

Wang is among hundreds of thousands of people who have been trafficked into scam compounds – many run by Chinese crime syndicates – that have proliferated in civil war-torn Myanmar and other parts of Southeast Asia in recent years. Often lured by the promise of well-paying jobs or other enticing opportunities, victims are held against their will and forced to carry out online fraud schemes in heavily guarded compounds, where former detainees say beatings and torture are common.

But Wang considers himself one of the lucky few. On January 7, just days after he was reported missing in the Thai border town of Mae Sot, Thai police said they located him in Myawaddy and brought him back to Thailand, without revealing the details of the operation.

Outgoing FBI director calls China and its cyber program the ‘defining threat of our generation’

ALEX WILSON

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China’s cyber program has already infiltrated critical American infrastructure and is poised to “wreak havoc” at a whim, the outgoing FBI director told “60 Minutes” on Sunday. 

Christopher Wray, who plans to resign as President-elect Donald Trump takes office later this month, described the Chinese government as “the greatest-long-term threat” and the “defining threat of our generation,” due in part to its massive, state-funded cyber program. 

During the interview with CBS’s Scott Pelley, Wray said Beijing can leverage those programs to target water treatment plants, the electrical grid, natural gas pipelines, telecommunications and other systems. 

China has already pre-positioned malware to “lie in wait on those networks,” where it can “inflict real-world harm at a time and place of their choosing,” he told “60 Minutes.” 

The FBI also believes that Beijing has already listened in on communications by high-level officials. 

Wray didn’t confirm whom he suspects China has surveilled, but “60 Minutes” said it independently confirmed Beijing spied on communications from Donald Trump, Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign and U.S. national security figures, according to the televised interview.

America’s China Strategy Is Incomplete

Elizabeth Economy and Melanie Hart

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Growing the U.S. economy is at the top of President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda, and tackling the many challenges in the U.S.-Chinese trade and investment relationship will be central to realizing this objective. Much of Trump’s rhetoric has focused on the use of tariffs: tariffs to rebalance the bilateral trade deficit, tariffs to incentivize U.S. multinational firms to reshore their supply chains and reduce their reliance on Chinese manufacturing, and tariffs to prevent other countries from answering China’s call to de-dollarize the global economy.

The Pentagon’s ‘Replicator’ drone bonanza faces an uncertain future

Noah Robertson

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In a speech last August, Kathleen Hicks listed the two most common questions about Replicator, her two-year pledge to buy thousands of drones and help the U.S. military compete with China.

“When we launched Replicator, a common refrain I heard was: ‘Can it work?’ These days I’m more likely to hear: ‘Will it stick?’” said Hicks, the deputy secretary of defense.

That second question soon won’t be hers to answer.

Since she first unveiled Replicator a year and a half ago, it’s nearly become a trademark. Hicks has sat in all of the Pentagon’s major meetings on it. She’s read every story published about the program, prepared in files from her staff. And she’s called its success a referendum on her leadership.

Senior Pentagon officials interviewed for this story said the program is on schedule largely through her effort. Now, as Hicks leaves office, the question is whether it can survive without her.

Ending the Year with a Bang – Literally!

Anushka Saxena

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December 2024 was moderately momentous for military exercises conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around Taiwan. More specifically, two events of note took place recently, in line with what has been a series of small, medium, and large-scale military exercises to create a new normal around the island since 2022. The first was an aerial intervention which cannot exactly be referred to as a military exercise. Still, it did include the creation of seven reserved airspace zones (7个空域保留区) east of the Chinese provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian, for increased incursions by the PLA.

Interestingly, the official announcement for this event came not from the PLA or the Chinese Ministry of National Defence, but from the Taiwanese MoND, which launched counter-exercises to deal with an influx of PLA Air Force aircraft and PLA Navy vessels in the period between December 9-12, 2024. To that end, the MoND explained that by utilizing joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance methods, the Taiwanese armed forces tracked the activities of PLA Navy fleets and Coast Guard vessels from the PLA’s Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands. These units were, as per the MoND, observed entering areas around the Taiwan Strait and the Western Pacific to conduct extended-range maritime operations.

Israel and Hamas closer to agreement than they have been in months, Qatar says

Mostafa Salem

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Hamas and Israel are at the closest point to a ceasefire-hostage agreement than they have been for months, according to Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari on Tuesday.

Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are ongoing in the Qatari capital Doha to finalize the details for a ceasefire-hostage deal in Gaza, Al Ansari said in a news conference.

“Because of past experiences… it’s difficult to put a timeframe for an announcement except I can say that we are today at the closest point in the past months to reaching an agreement,” he said.

Al Ansari added that a draft of the agreement has been presented to both sides, and that discussions are taking place to solve “simple issues,” mostly related to the implementation mechanisms.

The agreement wouldn’t be immediately implemented, he said, adding that it would come “shortly after” the parties reach an agreement.

Some sticking points remain in the negotiations, including Hamas’ demands that Israel withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor, a narrow strip of land along the Egypt-Gaza border, and commits to a permanent ceasefire rather than a temporary halt to the military operations launched in the wake of the Hamas October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel.

Israel Deserves More Credit for the Victory in Syria

Michael Hochberg & Leonard Hochberg

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Pundits and social scientists are now describing the confluence of regional conflicts across Eurasia as ‘World War III.’ Such reports [here, here, and here] are descriptions of ongoing events; in international affairs, prediction and explanation are both more difficult and more valuable than after-the-fact observation.

For example, the Wall Street Journal’s chief foreign-affairs correspondent, Yaroslav Trofimov, argued on December 13, 2024 that the multi-front war conducted by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRINKs) against the United States and its Western allies amounts to “one common effort to destroy the international order.” The article’s title was: “Has World War III Already Begun?”

The author characterized the current global strife as a conflict between autocratic and democratic regimes, which is an insufficient explanation. This explanation does not provide clarity as to where these conflicts have arisen or why; to answer these questions, an understanding of classical geopolitical theory (here and here) is required.

Syria’s Troubling New OrderAnalysis

Zaid Al-Ali

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Since the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies took control of Damascus and Syria’s government institutions last November, the group’s leadership has been sending out signals about what type of transition and future constitutional order might be in store for the country. HTS officials have repeatedly stated that they plan to be inclusive toward Syria’s Alawite, Christian, Druze, Kurdish, and other minorities, which has reassured many Syrians and international observers. Most importantly, perhaps, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa—also known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani—spoke with Al Arabiya News on Dec. 29, 2024, about how the transition may play out.

Behind the rhetoric, however, there is considerable cause to believe that HTS has already decided how Syria should be governed—even though negotiations with other groups have not even started. After he was asked when elections might take place, Sharaa responded that a “presidential election” cannot take place for another few years. The issue here is not the delay, which is not unusual in a post-conflict environment where a state has to be rebuilt. But by talking about presidential elections, HTS appears to take it for granted that Syria will have a presidential system rather than a parliamentary one, which is normally something that is only decided after complex negotiations with all major political groups in a constitutional convention or similar format. Even if the reference to a presidential election was meant as a starting point for discussions, as some have interpreted, the fact that HTS is even considering maintaining Syria’s presidential system is cause for concern, given the terrible experience with such systems in the region, including not only Syria but also Libya and Tunisia.

The Axis of Totalitarianism Threatens a Disastrous World Order - Opinion

Ali Omar Forozish

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Benito Mussolini, the then-dictator of Italy, coined the term totalitarianism in the early 1920s to describe his regime. It has become synonymous with a form of government wielding absolute control over society, seeking to regulate all aspects of public and private life. Totalitarian states concentrate power in a single entity and suppress dissent. These states maintain control through propaganda, surveillance, and state-sanctioned violence.

The term “axis of totalitarianism” captures the growing challenge posed by a collection of totalitarian states — Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia — whose alignment disrupts the democratic world order. Though not a formal alliance, these countries actively work to revise the US-led international order. Their strategic convergence extends beyond mere pronouncements, with coordinated actions demonstrating a concerted effort to erode the foundations of democratic systems. The axis further expands its reach by incorporating non-state actors — a myriad of terrorist groups, including various radical Islamic groups and Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Despite ideological and operational differences, these entities share a common antipathy towards democratic values and the Western order.

The axis doesn’t just criticize Western “decadence” — they actively propose an alternative global order. But beneath the surface lies a vision not of freedom, but of oppression. These regimes clamp down on individual liberties, ruthlessly crush dissent, and prioritize the rule of a select few elites over the rule of law. If the axis prevails, the world order fractures into competing spheres of influence, minority rights get trampled, and a far more chaotic and totalitarian order takes root.

Can Donald Trump Really End the Russia-Ukraine War?

Mikhail Troitskiy

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Mediating in Public and Private: Can Donald Trump Achieve Peace in the Ukraine War?: The prospects for brokering a just peace in Ukraine will depend on the Trump Administration’s willingness and ability to undertake a sustained, focused effort in the coming months.

Success will require strategically backing personal diplomacy through incentives and threats, effectively using Washington’s leverage through sanctions, coordinating with allies, and maneuvering with other stakeholders such as China, India, and key Middle Eastern countries.

Brokering a Ceasefire in the Ukraine War

Attempts to reach a ceasefire have likely already happened numerous times. President-elect Donald Trump’s position has been marked by his stated understanding of Russia’s grievances and his readiness to meet with Vladimir Putin, balanced against his top Ukraine advisor’s promise to find an “equitable” and “fair” solution for Kyiv. According to reliable sources, soon after the November election, Trump asked Putin by phone to refrain from escalating the war. Members of Trump’s team also reached out to Ukraine, and the president-elect himself hinted that he prefers to keep any negotiation details private for now.

What Imperialist Game Is Donald Trump Playing with Greenland

John Cassidy

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Vladimir Lenin famously wrote that imperialism is the “highest stage of capitalism,” by which he meant that a global economy based on the profit motive would inevitably end up with rich capitalist countries subjugating less developed territories and exploiting their resources. As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, he seems determined to put fresh life into this subversive description. In an online post last month, Trump said it was an “absolute necessity” for the United States to take ownership of Greenland, the vast and resource-rich island in the Arctic. A couple of weeks later, at a press conference, he refused to rule out using military force to seize Greenland in addition to taking control of the Panama Canal, a key trade route, which the late Jimmy Carter agreed to transfer to its home country in 1977.

As often with Trump, the question arises of how serious he really is. The Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren suggested that his comments were designed to shift the spotlight away from his controversial cabinet selections and their upcoming confirmation hearings. Other observers speculated Trump was directing attention to smaller and weaker countries because as President he will likely encounter difficulty in facing down stronger opponents, particularly China. But one thing is certain: when Trump posted online a map of the U.S. occupying the entirety of the North American continent north of the Rio Grande, he knew that many of his most ardent supporters would cheer.

Hypersonic Missiles: We Need ’Em…and We Need a Strategy

Francis G. Mahon & Punch Moulton

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The development of hypersonic missiles, capable of traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5, cannot be just an ambition—it must be a commitment to maintaining the United States’ strategic edge and being ready for tomorrow’s near-peer fight. The unique capabilities hypersonic weapons deliver demand the U.S. adopt a comprehensive and coordinated strategy for their development and employment - one that synchronizes and synergizes U.S. military services, while embracing “test fast, fail fast, learn fast” in development.

Our previous article outlined the compelling need for warfighters to employ hypersonic weapons. Their extended range and speed enable engaging deep targets and time-sensitive targets. Further, hypersonic weapons can uniquely penetrate adversary defenses. Hypersonic weapons will enable our joint warfighters to hold an adversary at risk across space and time—a distinctive operational advantage.

Even more importantly, the U.S. can leverage a quiver of hypersonic weapons for operational and strategic deterrence. Hypersonic weapons satisfy both elements for deterring an adversary: they can “deny benefit,” and they can “impose cost.” If an adversary understands we can neutralize a ballistic missile attack before launch with hypersonic weapons (denying benefit), the adversary’s calculus is disrupted. In addition, if the adversary believes senior leaders or headquarters will be targeted in a conflict with hypersonic weapons (imposing cost), the decision to initiate the fight becomes harder.

5 Things Pete Hegseth Could Do If He Is Confirmed

Wilson Beaver

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Senate confirmation hearings are set to officially begin this week for Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth. No doubt, the media and some members of the Senate will try to use this opportunity to criticize Hegseth’s personal history and lack of Pentagon experience, but this is a mistake.

Indeed, if the chaos in Kabul, wokeness and inefficiency in Washington, and the general decline of America’s military over the last four years under the leadership of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin—a former four-star general and defense contractor board member—have taught us anything, it is that the Defense Department doesn’t need another Washington insider at the helm.

In response, conservatives should use the upcoming hearings to highlight Hegseth’s unique opportunity to deliver what the American people voted for and what the American military needs: a Pentagon that is accountable, efficient, and laser-focused on fighting and winning, especially against our number one adversary, the People’s Republic of China.

To hammer home the point, below are five essential reforms that Hegseth can implement immediately upon being confirmed.

North Korea reveals new surface combatant

Joseph Dempsey

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Images broadcast by the North Korean state media channel, Korean Central Television (KCTV), appear to confirm earlier analysis by the IISS that North Korea is building its largest-ever warship.

On 29 December 2024, KCTV aired a report that included four still images showing President Kim Jong-un inspecting a new naval vessel under construction.

The location of the vessel at Nampo shipyard on North Korea’s west coast was readily identifiable, having featured in a Military Balance blog published in October 2024. This earlier analysis highlighted an unusual structure emerging around the assembly of an unidentified vessel and assessed that the likely size and concealment efforts were indicative of a potential new large surface combatant.

The images released by KCTV capture at least two separate visits by Kim, with clear differences in his clothing, the construction progress on the vessel’s upper bow and the evolving fabrication of the surrounding dock structure. One image is from an earlier inspection that likely occurred in August or mid-September, based on the initial covering of camouflage netting overhead and on the sides of the structure framework. The other three were likely in late November or December, by which time the structure’s sides had been clad in panels and a solid roof had largely been completed. While these later developments to the surrounding structure provide better concealment from observation, they also indicate the likely completion of the ship’s main assembly, given the gantry crane used to move elements of the superstructure into place no longer has access due to the new roof.

Why Biden Is Rushing to Restrict AI Chip Exports

Billy Perrigo

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The Biden Administration’s move on Jan. 13 to curb exports on the advanced computer chips used to power artificial intelligence (AI) arrived in the wake of two major events over the Christmas holidays that rattled the world of AI.

First, OpenAI released its latest model, o3, which achieved an 88% on a set of difficult reasoning tests on which no AI system had previously scored above 32%. “All intuition about AI capabilities will need to get updated” in light of the results, said Francois Chollet, a former AI researcher at Google and a prominent skeptic of the argument that “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) would be achieved any time soon.

Second, the Chinese company DeepSeek released an open-source AI model that outperformed any American open-source language model, including Meta’s Llama series. The achievement surprised many AI researchers and U.S. officials, who had believed China lagged behind in terms of AI capabilities. Somehow, DeepSeek had managed to create a world-class AI model in spite of a global embargo, led by the U.S. government, on the sale of advanced AI chips to China.

Trump and others want to ramp up cyber offense, but there’s plenty of doubt about the idea

Tim Starks and Mark Pomerleau

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In recent months, incoming Trump administration national security adviser Mike Waltz and some lawmakers have suggested that in response to Chinese cyber breaches, the United States needs to prioritize taking more aggressive offensive actions in cyberspace rather than emphasizing defense.

It’s been said before. And it’s easier said than done.

Experts that spoke with reporters for this story note several multifaceted questions regarding enhanced offensive operations, including what form they would take and if it’s an appropriate response to the recent rash of intrusions. Offensive operations are technically complex — unlike in Hollywood, where they’re as easy as pushing an “enter” button — and potentially introduce new risks for the attackers.

Furthermore, those calling for more cyber offense might not be aware of the scope of current secret U.S. operations, itself a conundrum: If the country doesn’t take credit publicly, how would adversaries know it struck back and therefore deter present or future attackers?

Rep. Don Bacon on cyber deterrence: ‘Speak softly and carry a big-ass stick’

Martin Matishak

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The five-term Nebraska Republican got the gavel last year, just as policymakers were readying to take up their annual defense policy bill. Despite the late start, and a thin congressional calendar, the final measure included several cybersecurity provisions.

Bacon, who served as an Air Force colonel and one-star general alongside now U.S. Cyber Command and National Security Agency chief Timothy Haugh, has further settled into the role.

Last month he sent a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, pressing him on the agency’s response to the China-linked Salt Typhoon hacking campaign. The missive — not previously reported — also asked details on the effort to revamp Cyber Command, known as “Cyber Command 2.0.”

Recorded Future News: What are your priorities for the cyber and innovation subcommittee?

Don Bacon: China is eating our box lunch right now. We caught them trying to get into our infrastructure and now we had this latest news that they're in our cell phone networks — probably still are.

I want to push the attitude that we’ve got to regain deterrence, and we're going to do that through Cyber Command. I want to get us to be more aggressive and make China pay a price for what they're doing right now.

Coping with Trump

Lawrence Freedman

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This picture was taken by Jesco Denzel, an official German government photographer, on 8 June 2017 during the 44th G-7 summit, held in Quebec. It came during a break from an intense set of exchanges on trade and tariffs. The photo was released the next day by the then German Chancellor Angela Merkel on her Instagram account, with an innocuous caption explaining that this was a ‘spontaneous meeting between two working sessions.’ It soon went viral.

It is not hard to see why Merkel found irresistible a picture that puts her at the centre of a dramatic encounter. It captures a moment of conflict and tension. Her pose is confident and self-assured, leaning forward with her hands on the table giving President Trump her hardest stare. Trump is the only person seated, staring back with his arms defiantly folded.

Standing beside Trump is his national security advisor John Bolton. Watching, with an anxious look, is the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, also with his hands folded. We can see the profile of French President Emmanuel Macron as if he is trying to get a word in. We know British Prime Minister Theresa May is there because that is clearly the back of her hair. Out of the picture is the host, Justin Trudeau, who was standing to Trump’s left, apparently reading some papers. More pictures of the same encounter, distributed by other key participants, can be found, here, including Trump’s, in which he is strangely lost in shadows, and Macron’s, in which he is finally getting his chance to address Trump, and is gesticulating as he does so.

‘Hybrid threats, ‘grey zones’, ‘competition’, and ‘proxies’: When is it actually war?

Samit D’Cunha, Tristan Ferraro and Tilman Rodenhäuser

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In the last few months, suspicious fires in warehouses and aboard aircraft, the severing of undersea power and Internet cables, GPS jamming, cyber operations against critical civilian infrastructure, and allegations of influence operations and election interference have been depicted as ‘hybrid warfare’ by both politicians and the media. So-called ‘hybrid threats’ or ‘hybrid attacks’, as well as allegations of the use of proxies to project power while attempting to obfuscate attribution and legal as well as political responsibility are a symptom of worrying developments, in particular in Europe. The geopolitical environment today is characterized by increasing/ed tensions among states, a militarized security environment, instability within countries, projection of power through a range of covert and coercive measures, and – at the global level – an increasing number of armed conflicts.

While neither ‘hybrid’ threats or warfare, nor the notion of proxies, are defined in international law, the use of such terms is often accompanied by the suggestion that certain acts are taking place in a ‘grey zone’. The term ‘grey zone’, in turn, appears to suggest that the line between armed conflict and peace is blurring, or that the law is unclear or non-existent in certain of these situations. However, while some of these types of operations are old and others are new, international law always applies. And more specifically regarding international humanitarian law (IHL), determining whether a specific situation amounts to armed conflict remains an assessment of facts based on well-established legal criteria derived from the four Geneva Conventions as well as their Additional Protocols.

The three forces that will shape 2025

Zanny Minton Beddoes

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What happens when the world’s biggest economy takes a sharp protectionist turn? When the global superpower decides that a transactional foreign policy beats alliances? And when the reset takes place as wars rage, menacing adversaries join forces and artificial intelligence (AI) is changing everything from health care to warfare? The world is about to find out.

Six tech trends to watch in 2025

Yago Tenorio

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2025 is shaping up to be a year of exciting technological advancements. As customer mobile data demands continue to soar, the need for continued enhancements on mobile networks has never been more apparent. To meet the connectivity needs of consumers and businesses and deliver on the promises of Artificial Intelligence (AI) going forward, driving technological advancements and pushing the boundaries of technology are going to be more important than ever. Customers expect us to be ahead of where technology is going and be a future-ready partner that can ensure they’ll be connected, wherever they are.

To stay on the cutting-edge, here are six tech trends to keep on your radar this year.

Cloud-Native Networks Gain Importance. Cloud-native networks will become increasingly important for supporting customers' AI and machine learning workloads with the best performance. For the operator, having full control to orchestrate their own cloud not only will play a critical role for advanced services like network slicing and Edge Compute, but will also add critical flexibility to dynamically adapt to the customers needs in terms of capacity and topology. While cloud-native networks used to be considered a “nice to have”, it’s not unlikely that the industry will now start to recognize they are essential to run AI workloads with specific requirements such as higher speeds, lower latency or added security.

SECAF Kendall, looking out to 2050, predicts war winners will be combatants with the best AI

Mikayla Easley

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Artificial intelligence and autonomous systems will likely play an even more significant role in determining the outcome of future conflicts as the technology continues to evolve over the next 25 years, according to outgoing Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall.

In a congressionally-mandated report submitted to lawmakers in December and set to be published Monday, Kendall outlined his prediction on what security environments and technological advancements will contribute to what both the Air and Space Forces will look like in the year 2050. The document covers a broad range of emerging capabilities that will shape future warfare, many of which are underpinned by an expanded use of AI and autonomy.

“It is likely these areas of advanced military technology will be manifest through the increasingly widespread use of autonomy and automation, in all domains, but especially in space, in cyberspace, and in the air,” Kendall wrote in the report, titled “The Department of the Air Force in 2050.”

The assessment comes at a critical inflection point for AI and autonomy, especially their use by the Defense Department as it looks to counter emerging threats from adversaries such as China and Russia. During Kendall’s tenure at the helm of the DAF, both the Air and Space Forces have made strides in leveraging the technologies — from using artificial intelligence to assist personnel in day-to-day tasks to the development of the Air Force’s robotic wingmen known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).

The AI Renaissance Cannot Escape Its Power Needs

John R. Mills & Dave Walsh

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There is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) bonanza taking place in America. To grow and thrive, AI needs data. Data centers need to be constructed to marshal this resource. Northern Virginia, for example, is becoming a parking lot for data centers. In turn, data centers need energy. The AI and data center explosion is on top of ongoing power needs required by heavy industry targeted for a reshoring resurgence. As onshoring and re-industrialization take off with the Trump administration, energy demands will only increase. These sectors require constant duty energy. Cloudy days or lack of winds egregiously undermine the perceived value of “green energy.”

The Green Energy slogan may be well intended, but it miserably fails the math test of reality. Solar and wind, unless an unforeseen innovation occurs, deliver under 15 percent of the nation's growing energy requirements. With an incoming administration that intends to unleash American Energy, sanity and adult leadership freed from the religion of green energy can be applied to the urgent problem of satisfying America's energy demand spike.

After many years of neglect from environmentalists, nuclear energy is suddenly in vogue due to the advent of small modular reactors (SMRs). There is a potentially great opportunity with SMRs. However, the simple issue upfront is that SMRs won’t be operational for another ten to fifteen years, and that is being generous. There is only one logical answer to bridging this growing energy demand canyon—gas turbines or re-opening (and ceasing to shut down) coal and large, legacy nuclear plants. Announced plans, despite the present power shortage, call for the closure of another eighty GW of more baseload U.S. coal capacity by 2028.