Matias Spektor
The global South has been a net winner from the shifts in global power over the last two decades. The growing influence of emerging economies, the rise of China as a great power, tensions between the United States and its European allies, and increasing great-power competition have given these countries new leverage in global affairs. They have taken advantage of these shifts by building new coalitions, such as BRICS (whose first members were Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa); strengthening regional alliances, such as the African Union; and pursuing a more assertive agenda at the UN General Assembly. From championing the Paris agreement on climate change to taking Israel to the International Court of Justice, the global South—the broad grouping of largely postcolonial countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East—has shown a greater willingness to challenge Western dominance and redefine the rules of the global order.
An “America first” foreign policy would seem to put those gains at risk. During his presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised to hit developing countries where it hurts most: raising tariffs that will throttle exporters in developing countries; normalizing the mass deportation of migrants, whose remittances are essential for the economies of many countries in the global South; and withdrawing from global environmental agreements that provide crucial support to those people disproportionately affected by the climate crisis. His proposed economic policies will probably lead to inflation at home, with devastating knock-on effects for developing countries as interest rates rise globally and credit becomes more expensive for economies already burdened by debt. His commitment to targeting China may make it harder for Beijing to continue serving as an alternative market and source of investment for much of the world.