India’s Undeniable Economic Heft and American Economic Security

Richard M. Rossow

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The free trade community has raised alarm bells about the incoming Trump Administration’s plans to pursue higher tariffs against key trade partners. However, the security reasons for accelerating decoupling from China, at least in strategically significant sectors, remains an imperative broadly supported by both political parties. If the goal is to slow China’s domination in the production of critical and emerging technologies, the United States must improve our ability to work with key partners. India is arguably the most significant country to proactively engage as the United States seeks to strengthen an economic firewall against Chinese technology dominance.

Today, India contributes about 4 percent of total global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite recent slowdowns in annual projected growth rates, most experts predict India to grow between 6 percent and 7 percent for the rest of the decade, easily out-pacing other large economies. India currently has the world’s fifth-largest economy in real terms at around $3.4 trillion. India is poised to pass both Germany ($4.9 trillion) and Japan ($4.3 trillion) by the end of this decade, and if the country can maintain six percent growth, will be the world’s third $10 trillion economy in less than twenty years. By the end of the decade, organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict India will provide up to 18 percent of total global growth, behind only China. India’s weight in the global economy will be increasingly difficult to ignore.

The Trump Effect: Will India Lean Into the China Thaw in 2025?

Jagannath Panda

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Reversing the trend that India and China ties have witnessed in the last half-decade, the coming year is unusually optimistic. For the first time in recent history, bilateral hostilities have taken a backseat, even if straightforward cooperation and trust are still missing. Nonetheless, despite the upward outlook, China’s uneven trajectory with India during the Xi Jinping era continues to warrant a cautious reading of current events. Add to the mix a resurgent Donald Trump, and the China-India thaw looks even more capricious.

Around mid-December, India and China concluded the 23rd meeting of Special Representatives for the China-India Boundary Question in Beijing. The representatives – China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval – primarily embraced the need to advance “effective border management” for maintaining “peace and tranquility on the border.” Despite the phrasing, China watchers know that the latter remains a clichéd phrase used regularly in such briefings. Yet, the expansion of bilateral relations was tied to the success of future meetings between the representatives, which the latest talks highlighted.

A couple of months earlier in October, the two sides had also reached a landmark disengagement pact on patrolling border areas in Depsang and Demchok along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – the de facto border, which itself is contested.

At the outset, such a dual promise seems in tune with the flurry of national and international headlines marking the start of a new chapter for India and China in resolving their disputes. However, on closer examination, the bonhomie seems burdened by multiple factors, most notably their leadership.

How Trump Could Strike a Trade Deal With China

Wendy Cutler

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened tariff hikes on the United States’ largest trading partners, but China seems to be in the most immediate line of fire as his inauguration approaches. Late last year, Trump announced plans to impose an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s inadequate efforts to curtail the fentanyl trade.

Trump has repeatedly argued that China has stolen U.S. jobs and industries and taken advantage of the United States, leading him to threaten increased tariffs of 60 percent or more on the campaign trail. The tariff proposals don’t stop there: There is growing interest within Congress to revoke China’s current “permanent normal trade telations” (PNTR) tariff status—a move supported by Trump’s nominee for U.S. trade representative, Jamieson Greer.

5-7 Nm Possibly The Long-Term Technological Ceiling For China’s Semiconductor Industry – Analysis

Zhou Chao

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Since the beginning of Donald Trump’s first term, the U.S. government has continuously ramped up pressure on China’s advanced technology sector, with the chip industry becoming a major target. Recently, before leaving office, President Joe Biden intensified sanctions and technological blockades against China’s semiconductor sector. The U.S. government has explicitly prohibited TSMC and Samsung from exporting chips below 7nm to China and has added 140 Chinese chip companies to its blacklist. From mid to late December 2023, the focus shifted to China’s mature-process chip industry. In response to the persistent pressure from the U.S., China’s chip industry has actively worked to counter external challenges, and eventually achieved a series of breakthroughs.

In terms of advanced processes, Huawei’s Mate60, launched in 2023, was confirmed to utilize 7 nm process technology, marking a significant breakthrough in Chinese-produced high-end chips. Regarding mature processes, data from international consulting firm Knometa Research showed that by 2022, there were 167 12-inch wafer fabs worldwide, with 13 new fabs coming online in 2023, bringing the total to 180. In terms of quantity, nearly half of the world’s 12-inch wafer fabs are located in China. Due to its complete industrial chain, robust production capacity, and cost advantages, China holds a clear comparative advantage in the production of mature-process chips.

Don't Obsess Over 2027 on China

James Holmes

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Numerology is a potent force in human affairs. So is a deadline—especially when it’s clear fateful consequences will come to pass once the cutoff date arrives. The wry English wit Dr. Samuel Johnson was on to something when he quipped that “when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”

But what happens if you talk yourself into believing a deadline is impending when it’s not? Maybe the executioner is not on a set timetable. An approaching date may concentrate your mind, as Johnson prophesied. And that can be a healthy thing. Deadlines are forcing events. They spur thought and action, compelling you to set aside indecision and sloth. But, perversely, a deadline might goad you into doing something rash—something with dire strategic and political import—in hopes of eluding the hangman’s noose. And then you’ll be stuck with the consequences of your actions—potentially, consequences of cataclysmic proportions.

Even though the hangman was never coming for you in the first place. Being decisive could be self-defeating.

What Will China Do With Its Newfound Military Power?

Ryan Chan

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Experts have told Newsweek that China has the intent and capability to become a "world-class military" and enjoy conventional superiority in the Indo-Pacific region as it expands and modernizes its naval force massively, which ranks at the top historically in this regard.

The Chinese military did not immediately respond to Newsweek's request for comment.

Why It Matters

Last month, the United States Defense Department released its annual report on Chinese military power, which stated China, the "pacing challenge" for the U.S. military, continued its efforts to form the military into an increasingly capable instrument of national power.

With regard to its naval development, the report said the Chinese navy remains the largest in the world by hull count, with over 370 ships and submarines in service. Meanwhile, the country has over 600 nuclear warheads.

In response to the report, the Chinese Defense Ministry said the country "adheres to the path of peaceful development and a national defense policy that is defensive in nature."

Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine

Robert Kagan

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Vice-president Elect J. D. Vance once said that he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine. We will soon find out whether the American people share his indifference, because if there is not soon a large new infusion of aid from the United States, Ukraine will likely lose the war within the next 12 to 18 months. Ukraine will not lose in a nice, negotiated way, with vital territories sacrificed but an independent Ukraine kept alive, sovereign, and protected by Western security guarantees. It faces instead a complete defeat, a loss of sovereignty, and full Russian control.

This poses an immediate problem for Donald Trump. He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power. Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still time. The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency.

Why Greenland Matters: Natural Resources – and ‘Location, Location, Location’

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When The Cipher Brief looked at the global security landscape for 2025, Greenland didn’t rate a mention. That was probably true of new year’s forecasts made by many organizations, but in the past couple of weeks, President-elect Donald Trump has put the world‘s largest island squarely into the national security conversation.

“For purposes of national security and freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity,” Trump wrote in a late-December post. This week he spoke of a “deal” to take over Greenland, and then said he wouldn’t rule out the use of force to make it happen. While his son Donald Trump, Jr., paid a visit to Greenland Tuesday, the President-elect said that “Greenland is an incredible place, and the people will benefit tremendously if, and when, it becomes part of our Nation.”

The Great M1 Abrams Tank Redesign Has Arrived

Caleb Larson

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The M1 Abrams Keeps Getting Lots of Upgrades

The M1 Abrams main battle tank has been the backbone of the United States Army’s armored forces for over four decades. Introduced in 1980, it has been continuously upgraded to offer tankers incrementally better capabilities: better firepower, more robust armored protection, and better situational awareness.

The most recent upgraded variant is the M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 3, better known by its SEPv3 abbreviation. While the SEPv3 offers the Abrams significant improvements in onboard electronics, armor protection, and lethality, the pace of threats facing the tank has necessitated the development of an entirely new main battle tank concept: the AbramsX tank demonstrator.

Built by General Dynamics Land Systems, the AbramsX tank concept vehicle addresses deficiencies in the SEPv4 program — deficiencies that have come to light partly thanks to the ongoing war in Ukraine — which was ultimately canceled in favor of pursuing more advanced, next-generation capabilities.

AbramsX: an Entirely New Main Battle Tank

The AbramsX is genuinely a new kind of main battle tank. Although it is still a prototype, its planned enhancements to survivability, lethality, and mobility are nothing short of radical. Thanks to an active protection system, a new powertrain, and lighter weight, the platform holds real promise.

Ukraine Has Launched A New Offensive Into Russia. Why And Why Now?

Todd Prince

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Since August, Ukrainian forces have been struggling to hold onto territory they seized in Russia's Kursk region, part of a cross-border incursion that, despite having unclear tactical aims, surprised Kyiv's Western allies and the Kremlin.

Now Kyiv has launched a new offensive in Kursk, pushing against Russian forces supported by North Korean soldiers who have clawed back more than half of the territory Ukraine captured.

It's not clear why Ukraine is waging a new assault in Kursk, and why now. Ukraine is struggling in multiple locations along the front line. It's outgunned by Russia. It has major problems recruiting and mobilizing enough men to replenish its depleted ranks.

So why expend scarce resources on a new, possibly futile offensive? The goal, experts say, could be to change the narrative of the nearly three-year war.

"Ukraine's center of gravity is U.S. support. Any gains it makes inside Russia will make it harder for the new administration to call the war a lost cause," said John Nagl, a professor at the U.S. Army War College.

Evaluating US Strategy for Ukraine: A Pre-Postmortem

Chase Metcalf

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Beginning in February 2022, the world watched as the largest land war in Europe since World War II consumed men and material at a prodigious rate. Since the beginning of the war, the administration of President Joe Biden clearly stated that Russia’s unprovoked aggression would not stand and that the United States would support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” As the war approaches the end of its third year and with speculation about a possible negotiated settlement, it is appropriate to assess the US strategy. Since much depends on the conflict’s final outcome, consider this a pre-postmortem.

Joint doctrine defines strategy as “a prudent idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of national power in a synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve theater, national, and/or multinational objectives.” The US Army War College defines it as “the alignment of ends (aims, objectives), ways (concepts), and means (resources)—informed by risk—to attain goals.” Regardless of which definition we use, there is a fundamental truth: ultimately, strategy serves policy, and thus, the most obvious way to assess strategy is by asking whether it achieves the policy outcomes at acceptable cost and levels of risk.

Russian internet provider confirms its network was ‘destroyed’ following attack claimed by Ukrainian hackers

Daryna Antoniuk

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Russian internet provider Nodex reported on Tuesday that its network had been ruined in a cyberattack, which it suspects originated from Ukraine.

In a statement on the Russian social media platform VKontakte, the St. Petersburg-based company said the “planned” attack “destroyed” its infrastructure overnight. Nodex added that it was working to restore systems from backups but could not provide a timeline for when operations would fully resume.

“Our priority is to restore telephony and the call center first,” the company stated.

In an update on Wednesday, Nodex announced that it had restored its DHCP server, which assigns IP addresses and network settings to devices. “Many people should now have internet access. Please restart your routers,” the company advised.

Data from the internet monitoring service NetBlocks shows that Nodex’s connectivity collapsed at midnight on Tuesday, affecting both fixed-line and mobile services.

Trump’s Trash Talk Revives the Worst of World Politics - Opinion

Andreas Kluth

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Donald Trump, just weeks from returning to the Oval Office, wants friend and foe to know that he’s wrestled with an alligator, tussled with a whale, murdered a rock, injured a stone, hospitalized a brick — because he’s so mean he makes medicine sick.

Oh wait, that was Muhammad Ali, in the heyday of his boxing and epic trash-talking before bouts. Trump — especially in the run-up to his inauguration — is clearly challenging The Greatest for his title of GOAT in smack talk, chirping, jawing, or whatever you call it.

That must be why Trump has recently put Panama on notice that the US wants that canal back; Denmark, that he intends to make an offer to buy Greenland that Copenhagen can’t refuse; and Canada, that it should start looking forward to becoming the 51st American state.

Trump (probably) doesn’t mean much of this literally, just as Ali left most rocks, stones, bricks and other masonry unmolested. But that’s not the point of trash talk. With his constant and winky microaggressions, Trump, like Ali, is trying to put psychological pressure on foreign nations and their leaders, the better to destabilize them now and bend them to his will later. That way, he reckons, there may be a chance of a technical KO in the ring, or as Trump calls it, “peace through strength.”

Even so, trash talk is never just talk. It’s as open to exegesis as body language, tea leaves or tarot cards are.

Greenland’s leader wants independence from Denmark as Trump hovers over Arctic island

Seb Starcevic

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The prime minister of Greenland called for independence from Denmark and removing the “shackles” of colonialism in a strident New Year’s address this week.

Greenland, the world’s largest island with a population of around 60,000, was a Danish colony until it became self-ruling with its own parliament in 1979. It remains a territory of Denmark, with Copenhagen exercising control over its foreign and defense policy.

The renewed call comes after United States President-elect Donald Trump once again suggested buying Greenland from Denmark — a proposal he made during his first term and reiterated last month, calling the U.S. acquiring the Arctic territory an “absolute necessity.”

“It is now time to take the next step for our country,” Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede said.

“Like other countries in the world, we must work to remove the obstacles to cooperation — which we can describe as the shackles of the colonial era — and move on,” he added.

Egede, who has led Greenland since 2021 and hails from the pro-independence Community of the People (IA) party, said Denmark’s relations with Greenland had not created “full equality,” and that the island deserves to represent itself on the world stage.

Greenlanders say Donald Trump should have asked them first

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MOST DANES thought it was a joke when President Donald Trump said America might buy Greenland, a self-governing island that forms 98% of Danish territory. Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, dismissed the idea as “absurd”. When Mr Trump reacted by calling her “nasty” and cancelling a visit to Copenhagen, his would-be hosts were stunned. But many Greenlanders were not.

Ambitions and Prospects after 300 Years with the Kingdom of Denmark

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Only one political current in Greenland, the populist Partii Naleraq of former Prime Minister Hans Enoksen, would like to declare independence imminently – on National Day (21 June) 2021, the anniversary of the granting of self-government within Denmark in 2009. Most of the popu­lation would prefer to see a more gradual process of separation. Greenland does not yet appear ready for independence. That opinion is shared by Kuupik Kleist, the first prime minister from the Inuit Ataqatigiit party, who led the territory into self-govern­ment in 2009. Kleist notes that Denmark only wanted to retain control over foreign and security policy, and Greenlanders have long had the opportunity to take control of all internal affairs, from policing and jus­tice to finances. “In the Law on Self-Govern­ment the Danes granted us the right to take over thirty-two sovereign responsibilities. And in ten years we have taken on just one of them, oversight over resources.” Many people just like to talk about independence, he says, but not to work for it. Kleist fears that the next generation will remain trapped in a mindset of dependency.

Kim Kielsen, prime minister since 2014, underlines the long-term goal of independ­ence. Significant electoral losses in 2018 notwithstanding, the governing Siumut party’s victory and his re-election were re­garded as affirmation of the political leader­ship’s cautious course in the independence process. The main reason cited for restraint is the island’s financial dependency. Kielsen sees strengthening the economy and fur­ther reducing its reliance on Denmark as the central concern. But on 29 November 2020 he lost the Siumut (“Forwards”) leader­ship to Erik Jensen. Jensen intends to cam­paign more energetically for independence and is also likely to replace Kielsen as prime minister when parliament reconvenes for its first session of 2021.

Germany and France warn Trump over threat to take over Greenland

Alex Therrien

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Germany and France have warned Donald Trump against threatening Greenland, after the US president-elect refused to rule out using military force to seize Denmark's autonomous territory.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said "the principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country... no matter whether it's a very small one or a very powerful one".

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said "there is obviously no question that the European Union would let other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders".

On Tuesday, Trump reiterated his desire to acquire Greenland, saying that the Arctic island was "critical" for national and economic security.

He has repeatedly expressed an interest in buying Greenland, having mooted the idea in 2019, during his first term as president.

Denmark, a long-time US ally, has made clear that Greenland is not for sale and that it belongs to its inhabitants.

The End of the Affair? The Transit of Russian Gas Across Ukraine

Alan Riley

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The State of play

Historically, Ukraine provided the only transit route for Soviet and then Russian gas to European states in what became the European Union. A dense network of pipelines across Ukraine permitted up to 150bcm of Russian gas to be exported westward. This supply system was also underpinned by over 30bcm of storage facilities in western Ukraine. However, post the fall of the USSR, Moscow began developing its pipeline strategy to avoid Ukraine, first with the Yamal-Europe pipeline, then Blue Stream, later with Nord Stream I, Turk Stream I and II pipelines, and finally the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, gas transit flows across Ukraine fell. Nevertheless, even as late as 2004, 137bcm was transited across Ukraine.

Under what now appears to be the final transit contract agreed to run for five years from the end of 2019, the transit agreement for the final four years of the contract provided for just 40bcm annually to be shipped across Ukraine. Gazprom did though agree to pay on ‘ship or pay’ terms. So, even if it did not ship the gas, it was still required to pay the agreed tariff. However, with the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Russian occupation of the Sokhranivka entry point, gas was only transited by the Sudzha entry point (currently under Ukrainian occupation but with the gas still flowing). Hence, since May 2022, only 15bcm of Russian gas has flowed through Ukraine. This gas delivered under long-term supply contracts currently flows principally to Slovakia and the Russian-controlled statelet in Transnistria, with smaller amounts being provided to Hungary and Italy.

One Team, One Fight: Diversity and Inclusion

M. Carter Matherly, PhD; Richard A. Greenlee, Jr., MEd, MDiv; and Tara B. Holmes, PhD

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Start with the Breath 

Countering Minority Stress and Brain Health Stigma with Evidence- Based Resilience and Self- Care Practices

Workplace stress is a ubiquitous issue affecting employees’ mental and physical well- being, ultimately impacting performance and productivity. The military workplace has other avenues of stress, such as deployed operations, family separation, or frequent relocation. These stressors are even more pronounced for individuals who identify as part of a minority group, whether due to race, ethnicity, neurodiversity, gender, or sexual orientation. Compounding each of these stress factors is the continued stigma on mental health despite the known positive impacts of resilience and prevention activities on overall wellness, stress management, workplace engagement, and effectiveness. One mediating factor against workplace minority stress and a way to build resilience is self- care.1

Background

In 2020, Department of Defense Instruction (DODI) 6400.09, DOD Policy on Integrated Primary Prevention of Self- Directed Harm and Prohibited Abuse or Harm, was published; it established policies to mitigate self- harm and promote force readiness through environmental and prevention- based practices.2 Elements of such integrated primary prevention include programs to teach, foster, and reinforce healthy behaviors throughout a career. The instruction highlighted skill development to improve healthy coping, emotional intelligence, resilience, and communication. Over the past decade, an ever- increasing number of studies and programs have emerged, both civilian and military, to target and capitalize on resilience and self- care.3

The Wars That Could Define The Donald Trump Presidency

Michael Rubin

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Almost every president since the end of the Cold War had his foreign policy legacy defined by a war no one could have foreseen. For George H.W. Bush, it was Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Bill Clinton sought to deflect Bush’s 90 percent popularity after the successful 100-hour ground war by focusing on bread-and-butter issues. In 1992, Clinton campaign consultant James Carville summarized the strategy with the famous quip, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Clinton genuinely hoped to focus on the economy. He extricated U.S. forces from Somalia following the “Black Hawk Down” incident but found himself drawn first into Bosnia and then more reluctantly into Kosovo. George W. Bush, too, sought to be a domestic president but, after the 9/11 attacks, ordered U.S. forces into Afghanistan and, more controversially, into Iraq. Barack Obama pledged to end “dumb war[s],” but not only remained in Afghanistan and returned to Iraq but then involved the United States in Syria and Libya.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated the Biden administration’s foreign policy. Joe Biden did not send U.S. forces into the theater, but he did provide Ukraine with weaponry and other forms of support for their war effort. For all his talk about his genuine interest in Africa, Biden has paid little attention to the world’s deadliest conflict, the civil war in Sudan. He staked out the middle ground in the Israel-Hamas conflict, meddling diplomatically and virtue signaling with humanitarian schemes while otherwise standing largely aloof. Biden also claimed to be “the first president in this century to report to the American people that the United States is not at war anywhere in the world.” However, he omitted U.S. involvement off the coast of Yemen.

Is The World Ending War, Despite Ukraine? – OpEd

Jonathan Power

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An ugly cloud of pessimism hands over many parts of the world. War that seemed to be in retreat, has returned with a vengeance with the second largest military in world, Russia’s, battling a very under-resourced neighbour, Ukraine. It’s getting a lot of people down. Yet there are many more grounds for optimism.

“We need jaw-jaw not war-war”, said Winston Churchill, albeit hypocritically. Still, he would be glad to see that because of his pithy advice the number of wars around the world has fallen dramatically since the end of World War 2. This is despite the wars in Korea, Africa (many), Afghanistan, Libya, Lebanon, Pakistan versus India, Myanmar, Central America, Cyprus, ex-Yugoslavia, Syria, Yemen and now Ukraine.

Compared with centuries past this has been a remarkable era, yet one not often acknowledged.

Interstate armed conflicts, apart from India versus Pakistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Israel and Gaza, Israel and Lebanon, Iran and Israel, Yemen and Israel, and Russia and Ukraine, have vanished off the map. Most conflicts are civil wars, as in Sudan, Syria, Congo Relative to the size of their populations these wars involve a very small percentage of humanity.

Making The Dollar Great Again: The Enduring Challenges Facing The BEP – OpEd

David Graham

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Appointing Scott Bessent as the incoming Secretary of the Treasury, President Donald Trump recently pointed out that this choice was part of his global strategy to, amongst other aims, “[…] fortify our position as the World’s leading Economy, […] Destination for Capital, while always, and without a question, maintaining the US Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the World,” reinforcing the belief that the US dollar remains one of the world’s most powerful and widely recognized currencies, both in its physical and emerging digital forms. This dominance, while increasingly challenged, continues to provide the American government with unparalleled leverage on the global economic stage.

Aligned with the campaign’s direction and the early appointments in the new administration, the dollar—whether physical or digital—must be strategically positioned as a tool of power to advance the MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda. While the rise of cryptocurrencies presents new opportunities and considerations, the enduring challenges tied to the physical dollar remain consistent. These challenges now warrant even greater political focus, emphasizing the greenback’s role as both a sovereign instrument and a symbol of American strength and authority.

It remains a powerful tool on the international stage, with some independent countries using it as a national currency, while many others happily employ it as an alternative currency of exchange, while others are considering restricting cash dollar transactions, which only underlines the range of the dollar’s influence. As for Americans themselves, they attach a significant importance to their beloved bill as well.

Are High-Skill Immigrants a Problem?

DARON ACEMOGLU

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Fissures within US President-elect Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” coalition have appeared sooner than expected. By the end of December, the tech-billionaire wing was in open warfare with MAGA’s nativist wing over America’s H-1B visa program, which enables US businesses to employ some 600,000 skilled foreigners per year on a temporary basis.

Speaking for the billionaires, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla (a top H-1B employer), argues that, “There is a permanent shortage of excellent engineering talent. It is the fundamental limiting factor in Silicon Valley.” Likewise, Vivek Ramaswamy, another tech billionaire advising Trump, claims that US companies need H-1B workers because, “Our American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence for way too long (at least since the 90s and likely longer).” In response, MAGA activists like Laura Loomer and Steve Bannon – but also democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders – countered that the program helps large US corporations at the expense of American workers.

Who’s right? While economic research makes clear that immigrants bring sought-after skills, creative dynamism, and useful knowledge that also helps domestic innovators, that doesn’t mean there is no downside to heavy reliance on H-1B visas. For example, the argument that the H-1B program helps employers secure STEM (science, technology, engineering, math) skills ignores the fact that if there were no such program, US educational institutions would feel greater pressure from business to address this need.

The Spirit of America – Its People

George Friedman

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Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have fundamentally altered long-held conventional political wisdom, perhaps nowhere more markedly than in the United States. Like all countries, the U.S. is mutable. But unlike most others, changes there have global consequences. The situation in America signals a break in the natural process of a country. America has surprised the world many times, and it is doing so again. The following essay is the first in a series by George Friedman seeking to explain why that’s the case.

America needs a sense of perspective. In this time, all is not wonderful, nor is it all terrible. We need to find the order in the United States. We need to understand America’s soul. In business, we don’t succeed by rushing into a deal – we wait for a chance and make sure it’s the right chance, because if it’s the wrong one, we risk losing it all. Paradoxically, the United States lives off that fear. America needs to recognize this and make peace with itself.

Enabling Technologies and International Security: A Compendium

WENTING HE

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Introduction

Enabling technologies1—such as advanced materials, microchips and sensors, computing power and connectivity infrastructure—are driving innovation and the development of capabilities across other areas, not least in information and communications technologies (ICTs), artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems. Advances in these technologies are revolutionising the digital ecosystem, expanding the possibilities for their development and use for military purposes. As enabling technologies continue to advance, it becomes increasingly important to address their implications for international peace and security. Continuous horizon scanning enables early detection of new and emerging technological developments and their applications, thus playing an important role in the timely assessment of both the benefits and potential risks of these technologies.

In the 2024 report on “Current developments in science and technology and their potential impact on international security and disarmament efforts”, the United Nations Secretary-General underscores the continuing concerns that developments in science and technology of relevance to security and disarmament are outpacing the capacity of normative and governance frameworks to manage the associated risks.2 While various intergovernmental processes have made strides in tackling the security implications of certain technology areas, such as ICTs and lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS), comparatively less attention has been devoted to the underlying technologies that are enabling or driving their further developments. This underscores the urgent need for a more thorough and comprehensive examination of enabling technologies as well as their potential impacts on international security.