Indian Strategic Studies: 2025

20 February 2025

What’s Driving China’s Controversial Mega-Dam in Tibet?

Genevieve Donnellon-May and Mark Wang

On December 25, 2024, Chinese state media Xinhua reported that the country had officially approved the construction of what will be the world largest hydro-dam with annual capacity of 60 gigawatts (GW), or 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. The planned site is on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the Tibet Autonomous Region, in the foothills of the Himalayas.

With recent estimates suggest that the new hydropower dam’s cost to potentially exceed 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion), the planned hydropower dam is expected to surpass the country’s famous Three Gorges Dam as the largest – and most expensive – in the world. The Three Gorges dam cost 254.2 billion yuan and generates 88.2 billion kilowatt-hours annually.

The Power Construction Corporation of China (PowerChina), in partnership with the Tibet Autonomous Region government, is expected to oversee the project. When the proposal was unveiled in late 2020, Yan Zhiyong, chairman of PowerChina, hailed it as an “historic opportunity for the Chinese hydropower industry.”

Chinese officials and media have declared that the day will be a “people-centric project aimed at enriching the people and promoting Tibet’s development.” The hydropower dam’s construction is expected to boost rapid growth in local industries (such as logistics) and also create local employment opportunities.

In India, however, the prospect of a major dam in Tibet has raised both environmental and geopolitical concerns. The Yarlung Tsangpo River flows into India, where it becomes the Brahmaputra, and then on to Bangladesh, where its known as the Jamuna.

Geonomics, Not Geopolitics is Driving Pakistan’s Courting of Bangladesh

Abdul Basit

The recent regime change in Bangladesh has triggered a Pakistan-Bangladesh rapprochement.

Since Muhammad Yunus took charge as leader of Bangladesh’s interim government on August 8, several high-level meetings have been held between Bangladesh and Pakistan, paving the way for new linkages and closer cooperation.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has met Yunus twice since the regime change in Dhaka — on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in the U.S. and the D-8 Summit in Egypt in September and December 2024, respectively. During the D-8 meeting, Yunus urged Sharif to settle the issues of 1971. “The issues have kept coming again and again. Let’s settle those issues for us to move forward. It would be nice to (settle issues) once and for all for the future generations,” Yunus said. Yunus was referring to a longstanding Bangladeshi demand for an official apology from Pakistan for the genocide committed during the 1971 war.

Pakistan has long maintained that the India-Pakistan-Bangladesh tripartite agreement of 1974 settled these issues. In Cairo, Sharif agreed to look into “other outstanding issues.”

Bilateral relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh have been troubled since the 1971 Liberation War, and particularly frosty during periods of Awami League rule in Bangladesh. Since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5 last year, relations have thawed. And following the Sharif-Yunus meetings, Pakistan and Bangladesh have moved swiftly to improve ties.

Breaking The Cycle Of Old Politics In Sri Lanka – Analysis

Neil DeVotta

Sri Lanka’s 2024 elections have ushered in a seismic shift, with Anura Kumara Dissanayake (often known by his initials ‘AKD’) of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) becoming president in September 2024 and the JVP-led National People’s Power (NPP) alliance winning a parliamentary supermajority in November 2024. The two elections represent a political realignment, empowering a new class of elites while marginalising long-dominant politicians.

The Marxist-Leninist JVP was responsible for two bloody insurrections in 1971 and 1987-89 that killed tens of thousands of Sri Lankans. This violent past was long an electoral albatross, but creating the NPP alliance with twenty other groups helped transform the JVP into a more conventional left-leaning party.

AKD’s winning personality and articulate, rational discourse held sway over now former Sri Lankan president Ranil Wickremesinghe and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa in the presential election. Educated professionals who contested for the NPP in the parliamentary election further softened the JVP’s prior radical image. The splintered opposition also helped.

But the main reason for AKD’s and the NPP’s victories was the island’s bankruptcy. The alliance effectively linked the resulting economic crisis to the corruption, nepotism and impunity of previous regimes and promised more accountable and transparent governance.

Systemic change requires that Sri Lanka’s political structure and political culture must now be transformed. The NPP has promised a new constitution, which could appreciably change the political system. But transforming the political culture would require weakening ethnocracy in ways that may sideline powerful constituencies like the military and Buddhist clergy. A new political culture would also require accountability for crimes committed by security personnel — often hailed as war heroes —against Tamils, journalists and detractors of the former Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa and his family.

Blackout Nation: How Myanmar’s Energy Crisis Is Crippling Lives – Analysis

Htet Khaing Min

In Myanmar, darkness no longer just falls after sunset—it has become an everyday reality, an uninvited guest that lingers well beyond nightfall.

Key Takeaways:Severe Power Shortages Cripple Myanmar – Blackouts for up to 20 hours disrupt businesses, healthcare, and daily life, worsening economic hardships.

Gas Dependency and Infrastructure Damage – Failing gas plants, stalled solar projects, and grid attacks force reliance on costly alternatives.

Urgent Reforms Needed – Expanding renewables, repairing infrastructure, and improving governance are crucial for energy stability.

As the country grapples with one of its most severe power shortages in decades, the lights of progress have flickered and dimmed under the shadow of the military junta’s regime. With rolling blackouts, widespread infrastructure damage, and a fractured power grid, Myanmar’s citizens find themselves in the dark—literally and figuratively. Widespread socio-economic challenges, including higher household expenses, job losses, business closures, disruptions in education and healthcare, rising poverty, and long-term economic and environmental damage, are growing due to persistent power shortages. This article examines the causes and far-reaching consequences of Myanmar’s energy crisis, offering insights into the political, social, and economic toll it continues to exact on the nation.

The Risk of a Taiwan Invasion Is Rising Fast

Indicators an Invasion Is Unlikely in the Short Term

There are several elements of China’s behavior that support our assessment that a Taiwan invasion is unlikely before 2027. These include China’s almost certain continuing preference for “peaceful reunification”, indicators that it very likely continues to pursue a dual-track approach to Taiwan, economic challenges that very likely take priority given China’s other ambitions, shortfalls in PLA capability, and limited indication that China has begun mobilizing its populace to brace for wartime hardship. Additionally, public opinion polling results in Taiwan since 2020 likely suggest to China’s leadership that its coercive strategy is working to deter independence in the short term. In totality, we assess that — absent a specific catalyst that leads to war (such as if Taiwan declares formal independence or China assesses foreign military interference in Taiwan) — the CCP leadership is very likely, in the short term, to remain focused on improving domestic conditions and strengthening preparations for navigating tensions with the US, a potential invasion, or other conflict with a foreign power (for example, over the South China Sea).

Deterring Chinese aggression takes real-time intelligence

Scott D. Berrier

To advance peace through strength, the US military must be capable of denying the People’s Republic of China (PRC) any chance of taking Taiwan by force. This will take more than military modernization. The Trump administration needs to transform the Intelligence Community’s (IC) early-warning capabilities. It’s time to inject unprecedented speed and efficiency into this national mission with a clear goal: attaining real-time awareness across all domains—space, cyberspace, sea, land, and air. Creating this capability is crucial for gathering intelligence against hard targets, understanding emerging events, anticipating the future, and maintaining decision advantage. It’s a tall order, but it’s achievable with the president’s leadership and industry’s cutting-edge tech.

A conflict with the PRC over Taiwan is neither imminent nor inevitable. The PRC has a strategy for annexing Taiwan without an invasion—and it’s in use right now. This strategy has more to do with cyber power than firepower. But the Joint Force and the IC must be prepared for all potential futures—including the risk that the PRC might one day try to blockade or invade Taiwan, sparking a global security crisis.

In fighting AI chip trade war with China, there’s one big mistake U.S. can’t afford to make

Trevor Laurence Jockims

The U.S. government’s effort to curtail AI development in China through tightened controls of chip exports, including restrictions on the most advanced offerings from Nvidia, didn’t stop DeepSeek from creating its generative AI app efficiently, and at a level that rivals the best the U.S. has to offer from companies such as OpenAI.

While the details on just how DeepSeek did it remain incomplete, and its success doesn’t mean export controls don’t have a place in markets and national security policy, it does show that a focus on stopping the competition can’t keep pace with innovation. Now, the debate is underway over just how far the U.S. government should go in the future in blocking access to U.S. chip technology.

President Biden’s Department of Commerce issued its rules to “regulate the global diffusion” of AI chips and models in the administration’s waning days. The rules already have been heavily criticized by tech companies, including Nvidia, as well as policy experts. A Brookings analysis argues the the AI diffusion rules seek to create “a centrally planned global computing economy.”

“A decade from now, we will look back and recognize how quixotic it was for the U.S. government of the mid-2020s to attempt to limit the ability of people in 150 countries to perform fast multiplications,” wrote John Villasenor, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and professor of electrical engineering, law, public policy, and management at UCLA.

China’s Salt Typhoon hackers targeting Cisco devices used by telcos, universities

Jonathan Greig

China’s Salt Typhoon campaign to breach telecommunications companies has continued through the new year despite efforts by governments to stop the hackers, researchers said Thursday.

Recorded Future’s Insikt Group identified a campaign in December and January that involved attempts to compromise more than 1,000 Cisco network devices globally, many of which are associated with telecommunications providers. The Record is an editorially independent unit of Recorded Future.

Among the targeted organizations was a South African telecom, as well as a U.S.-based affiliate of a UK telecommunications company.

“The group likely compiled a list of target devices based on their association with telecommunications providers' networks,” the researchers said.

Insikt Group observed seven total compromised Cisco network devices communicating with Salt Typhoon infrastructure — including those connected to telecommunications companies in the U.S. and South Africa, as well as others in Italy and Thailand.

Will Iran’s Next Supreme Leader Be Its Last?

Akbar Ganji

For years, Iran watchers have been spreading rumors about the demise of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. When the Islamic Republic’s Assembly of Experts pushed back a major 2024 meeting from September to November, some theorized that Khamenei was ailing. When Khamenei spent time at that meeting detailing how to choose his successor, others asserted that his end was near. And whenever Khamenei disappears for too long, people speculate that the supreme leader has already died.

Putting The Past Into Practice: Lessons On The Innovation Pipeline

Peter Newell

The misidentification of friendly forces has always been a problem on the battlefield. In the Gulf War up to 17% of US casualties were the result of friendly fire. In the opening days of Operation Iraqi Freedom 6 Soldiers were killed and 25 others were wounded in action in a single friendly fire incident. In 2004, Ranger Pat Tillman lost his life in a friendly fire incident.

While battlefield tracking technology (Blue Force Tracking or BFT) improved in the years between the Gulf War and OIF, the technology was bulky, power hungry and unsuitable for dismounted operations. By 2010, the BFT network provided real-time locations of vehicles, planes and helicopters, but not for individual dismounts. In a rugged environment like Afghanistan, dismounted Soldiers were ubiquitous and increasingly at risk of being targeted accidentally by their brothers in arms.

This was not a new problem to the Army. In fact they had a requirement and program of record working on a solution called the Objective Control Unit (OCU). Unfortunately the Army had been working on the OCU for over 10 years and had yet to deploy a solution. Meanwhile the iPhone and its Android partner from Google had taken the world by storm.

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JD Vance attacks Europe over free speech and migration

Emily Atkinson

US Vice-President JD Vance has launched a scalding attack on European democracies, saying the greatest threat facing the continent was not from Russia and China, but "from within".

It had been expected that Vance would use his speech at the Munich Security Conference to address possible talks to end the war in Ukraine.

Instead, he spent the majority accusing European governments - including the UK's - of retreating from their values, and ignoring voter concerns on migration and free speech.

The address was met by silence in the hall, and later denounced by several politicians at the conference. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said it was "not acceptable".

Vance repeated the Trump administration's line that Europe must "step up in a big way to provide for its own defence".

The Ukraine war was mentioned, with Vance saying he hoped a "reasonable settlement" could be reached, after US President Donald Trump's surprise announcement earlier this week that he and Russia's Vladimir Putin had agreed to begin peace talks.

But Vance's address otherwise focused on culture-war issues and key themes of Trump's campaign for the US presidency - a departure from the usual security and defence discussions at the annual conference.

Ukraine, NATO, and War Termination

Eric Ciaramella and Eric Green

Introduction

President Donald Trump has signaled that one of his priorities in office will be to end Russia’s war against Ukraine by bringing Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. His administration faces two interrelated challenges. First, it needs to stop the war on terms that advance U.S. interests and protect Ukrainian sovereignty. Second, it needs to ensure that an eventual cessation of hostilities holds and that Russia is deterred from attacking Ukraine in the future.

Russia will have few incentives to negotiate in good faith if Ukraine is unable to reverse current battlefield trends. For well over a year, Russia’s advantages in manpower and air assets have allowed it to push Ukrainian forces back at an accelerating rate, albeit at great cost to Russia. As a result, Moscow is likely to continue to press its advantage—even while negotiating—until Ukraine is able to stabilize the front lines.

Even if Ukraine manages to blunt Russia’s ongoing offensive, Trump has inherited a Western strategy that has not defined an end state or the methods to achieve it. Training and equipping Ukraine and raising the costs on Russia through sanctions and export controls are necessary measures, but not sufficient to achieve peace. For a cease-fire or armistice to endure, two elements are critical. Ukraine needs to possess the capabilities to prevent Russia from achieving its objectives on the battlefield. That goal will require an expansion of Ukraine’s defense industrial base, predictable supplies of weapons and training from foreign partners, and a sustainable model to finance and staff the armed forces. Russia also needs to understand that the consequences of a repeat invasion would be catastrophic—far beyond the costs it has incurred since 2022. As such, true war termination will require the United States and Europe to provide Ukraine with a credible postwar security guarantee.

The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia

Markus Garlauskas

WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS

The geography of East Asia is a key potential variable increasing both the probability and impact of a US conflict with the PRC or North Korea expanding to simultaneous conflicts with both—particularly given the increasing ranges of modern sensors and weapons systems.

THE DIAGNOSIS

The risk of conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) or North Korea—especially the potential for simultaneous escalation involving both—poses a serious threat to the United States and its interests. This threat is heightened by the possibility of either adversary resorting to limited nuclear attacks.

A two-front war in Asia could unfold even without close cooperation between Beijing and Pyongyang. Dysfunctional coordination or misunderstandings could just as easily lead to conflict. Furthermore, with both China and North Korea developing greater incentives and capabilities for limited nuclear attacks, the risk of a nuclear war in East Asia is rising.

Deep-seated organizational and cognitive biases have been obstructing the ability of the United States and its allies to anticipate simultaneous conflicts with China and North Korea. Such biases also impede their preparations to manage such escalation and to counter limited nuclear attacks.

US politicians furious at UK demand for encrypted Apple data

Graham Fraser

Two US lawmakers have strongly condemned what they call the UK's "dangerous" and "shortsighted" request to be able to access encrypted data stored by Apple users worldwide in its cloud service.

Senator Ron Wyden and Congressman Andy Biggs have written to national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard saying the demand threatens the privacy and security of the US.

They urge her to give the UK an ultimatum: "Back down from this dangerous attack on US cybersecurity, or face serious consequences."

The BBC has contacted the UK government for comment.

"While the UK has been a trusted ally, the US government must not permit what is effectively a foreign cyberattack waged through political means", the US politicians wrote.

If the UK does not back down Ms Gabbard should "reevaluate US-UK cybersecurity arrangements and programs as well as US intelligence sharing", they suggest.

Leaders set for key security meeting as 'old' world order at risk of crumbling

Frank Gardner

The US Vice President, JD Vance, Ukraine's President Zelensky and up to 60 other world leaders and decision-makers are due to convene in Munich over the next three days for the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC).

For nearly two decades now I have been attending and covering this event for the BBC and I cannot think of a year when there has been so much at stake in terms of global security. A senior and highly experienced Western official said this week "this is the most dangerous and contested time I have ever known in my career".

Why?

Put simply, the current world security order – the catchily named International Rules-based Order – is in danger of crumbling. Some would argue this is already happening.

The end of consensus

When President Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago it was widely condemned by much – although not all – of the world. Nato, the EU and the West in general reached an extraordinary level of unity in coming together to help Ukraine defend itself, without getting drawn into direct conflict with Russia.

Is the U.S.-Ukraine Rare-Earth Deal All Talk?

Christina Lu

Washington and Kyiv appear to be inching closer to a potential rare-earth deal that could see the countries exchange Ukraine’s mineral resources for continued U.S. aid, even as industry experts warn that immense barriers stand in the way.

Rare earths—a set of 17 metallic elements that are not actually that rare, despite their name—are important to U.S. policymakers because they underpin technology from guided missiles to wind turbines. But China overwhelmingly commands their global supply chains, making control of the resources a strategic vulnerability that Washington has for years been desperate to plug.

Trump Should Know That Existential Threats Don’t Lend Themselves to Deals

Marwan Muasher

The meeting on Tuesday between U.S. President Donald Trump and Jordan’s King Abdullah II was visibly painful. Trump doubled down on his idea to permanently move 2 million Palestinians out of Gaza and into Jordan and Egypt—in other words, ethnic cleansing, and a plan that all parties reject. “We will have Gaza,” Trump told reporters while sitting next to Abdullah.

King Abdullah tried his best to walk a fine line between avoiding a public confrontation with the president on their first meeting during Trump’s second presidency and unwillingness to acquiesce to a proposal with disastrous results for Jordan.

Why is that so? Jordan has received waves of Palestinian refugees in 1948, 1967, and 1990, and it currently hosts more than half a million Syrian and Iraqi refugees. Adding another million Palestinian refugees to Jordan’s 11 million inhabitants would be roughly proportional to the whole population of Ukraine moving to the United States. Such a mass displacement would present economic and security issues Jordan cannot tolerate. It would also contribute to the emptying of Palestinian lands of their inhabitants and further the Israeli right’s goal of establishing a homeland for Palestinians in Jordan, both of which would create identity issues for Jordanians. And Jordan has no geographical borders with Gaza, nor did it demolish Gaza, but Trump seemingly wants it to compensate for the destruction Israel caused.

Russia-US Negotiations Open the Next Phase Of Restructuring the World

George Friedman

From 1945 until the early 1990s, the global order was based on the hostility between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was an order filled with conflict, danger and ideological discord, as all such orders are, but there was at least a system of organization based around the two powers. After the Soviet Union fell, Russia, though intact, was in a state of disarray in no small part because it had lost the satellite states that had insulated it from its enemies in Europe – NATO and the United States. The war in Ukraine was initiated largely to reclaim these buffer states. But it was also undertaken to resurrect the Russian state and rehabilitate it as a global power.

The war has been a failure. Moscow has taken only about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, thus failing to rebuild a decisive buffer. It has weakened the Russian economy. And it imperiled the regime by sparking unrest and coup attempts, which Moscow successfully suppressed. Russia has done what it does best: It has failed but survived. It must now devise a strategy for the future that is more than just survival.

On Feb. 11, the U.S. and Russia exchanged prisoners after President Vladimir Putin said U.S.-Russia relations were in danger of collapsing. For his part, President Donald Trump said phone calls between them were constant. Rumors of summit planning were in the air and have since been validated by reports that Trump and Putin spoke on the phone, with both agreeing to start negotiations to end the war. (Trump spoke later with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.) This is all a fairly normal negotiation process: One side threatens to leave the table, the other side displays patience, and both sides ultimately reach small agreements. In order to understand the geopolitical meaning of all this, we must consider the positions and strategies of both Russia and the United States in these negotiations.

Three worlds in 2035: Imagining scenarios for how the world could be transformed over the next decade

Peter Engelke, Greg Lindsay, and Paul Saffo

Welcome to three possible worlds in the year 2035. As resident and non-resident senior fellows in the Atlantic Council’s foresight practice, we produced these scenarios by assessing how current trends and uncertainties across a variety of categories—including geopolitics, the economy, demography, the environment, technology, and society—might interact with one another in the years to come.

These are not forecasts or predictions of what the future will bring. Instead, these scenarios are intended to inspire imagination and spur readers to consider possible futures, including future worlds that do not align with the readers’ expectations. To paraphrase a sentiment often expressed by the physicist and futurist Herman Kahn, the point of working with future scenarios is to find out what you don’t know and should know but that you didn’t even know you didn’t know.

We invite readers to interpret these scenarios in that spirit. Consider the interplay among the cause-and-effect elements that lead to each of the potential future worlds, as well as the myriad other possible scenarios that could emerge in the years to come.

Six 'snow leopards' to watch for in 2025

Consider the snow leopard. Panthera uncia sports some of the most effective camouflage in the animal kingdom, its white coat with gray and black spots blending in perfectly with the rocky, snowy Himalayan landscape it inhabits. It’s known as “the ghost of the mountains,” seeming to appear out of thin air on the rare occasions it is seen in the wild.

There’s an equivalent phenomenon in global affairs: under-the-radar trends and events that elude even the most seasoned observer. When their effect on world affairs eventually becomes apparent, they may seem to have come out of nowhere. But these “snow leopards” were there all along. Trends slowly gathering momentum while the crisis du jour dominates headlines, technological developments whose real-world application is still theoretical, known but underrated risks—all of these phenomena have the power to reshape the future. Some already are.

Any forecast of the future needs to account for these snow leopards. As we brought together experts across the Atlantic Council for our annual look into the future, our next-generation staff took on the challenge of spotting the hard to spot. They surveyed the world around them for overlooked risks, trawled scientific journals and the websites of obscure government departments, and came up with a list of potentially world-changing trends and developments.

Hamas Faces Last Stand in Gaza

Tom O'Connor

The fate of Hamas now hangs in the balance as Israel threatens to resume its war in the Gaza Strip with the full support of the United States and both nations begin drawing up postwar plans to exclude the group from power.

But even amid a conflict that has already brought historic upheaval to the Middle East, observers fiercely debate over whether the deep-rooted Islamist group that emerged four decades ago and came to dominate the Palestinian armed struggle can be decisively defeated. Most agree that a moment of truth is approaching.

"I think we're getting close to this moment where there will be a last stand and a decisive battle," Amir Avivi, reserve brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and chair of the Israel Defense and Security Forum in Tel Aviv, told Newsweek.

Avivi acknowledged that, even after suffering sweeping casualties among its ranks, nearly 20,000 by the IDF's estimates, along with the loss of its core leadership, Hamas has managed to recruit thousands more and is looking to regroup amid a ceasefire reached about a month ago.

The Amazon’s Future Will Be Decided in 2025

CARLOS NOBRE and MARIELOS PEÑA-CLAROS

SÃO PAULO/WAGENINGEN – Between November 2023 and October 2024, the Amazon rainforest faced yearly average temperature increases above 2° Celsius. Record-breaking heat waves, droughts, and fires have ravaged the region; deforestation is still too high; and indigenous peoples and local communities have faced proliferating threats against their livelihoods and well-being.

The threat these trends represent can hardly be overstated. The Amazon is rapidly approaching a tipping point, beyond which forest dieback could cause permanent degradation. The region’s transformation into self-drying areas of open vegetation would wreak havoc on the biome’s unmatched biodiversity, its food systems, and the livelihoods of its 47 million inhabitants. It would also destroy a vital carbon sink and a powerful source of moisture for South America – the “flying rivers” that sustain rainfall systems far south of the Amazon Basin.

Despite ample opportunity for multilateral efforts to protect and restore the Amazon, the outcomes so far have been woefully inadequate. Just last October, leaders gathered in Cali, Colombia, for the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16). A few weeks later, they headed to Baku, Azerbaijan, for the 29th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29). But neither gathering yielded the necessary results.

To be sure, COP16 brought the adoption of a new “program of work,” which should enhance the ability of indigenous peoples and local communities to contribute to biodiversity conservation. It also featured the launch of the Cali Fund, which facilitates the equitable distribution of profits from the use of sequenced genetic information that has been collected from the natural world. But only 44 of the 196 parties at the event managed to produce new national biodiversity plans.

How to Counter Trump's Tariffs Productively?

SHANG-JIN WEI

NEW YORK – After months of threats and speculation, US President Donald Trump has officially launched his long-anticipated trade war. He has just imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. His new 10% tariff on Chinese imports will further strain the world’s second-largest economy, which is already grappling with slowing growth and unfavorable demographics. And his postponed – but not canceled – 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, together with threats to impose new tariffs on the European Union, India, and many more countries, put greater pressure on key US allies.

While many countries are considering retaliatory tariffs on US goods, such measures are both unproductive and unlikely to deter Trump. One reason is that most countries run trade surpluses with the United States and therefore have fewer US goods to target than the US does. More importantly, higher tariffs on US imports would hurt their own citizens and firms. Consequently, their ability to counter Trump’s tariffs is severely limited.

A more productive approach would be to focus on minimizing the economic fallout. To do so, it is important to recognize that both a trade and a financial channel could cause Trump’s trade war to trigger a global economic downturn.

Beyond his tariffs on metals and China, Trump has previously pledged to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods. More recently, he proposed targeting only countries with which the US has a trade deficit, as well as a “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” that would tailor tariff rates to US trading partners’ own barriers. While that may sound like a more measured approach, the US currently runs bilateral deficits with most countries – including 12 of its top 15 trading partners.

Although Trump’s tariffs will inflict economic pain on US households and businesses, that is unlikely to discourage him, partly because he views tariffs as a way to offset – at least partly – the revenue losses from his planned tax cuts. The fact that his tariffs will ultimately be paid by American consumers, especially middle- and low-income households, does not appear to concern him.

Although Trump’s tariffs probably will not reduce the US trade deficit, they will have far-reaching implications for interest rates worldwide. If the Federal Reserve takes no action, the tariffs will drive up the prices of both imported goods and domestically produced goods that compete with them or rely on imported inputs.

JD Vance Unveils America’s AI Doctrine

Mohammed Soliman

The vice president’s speech at the Paris AI Summit emphasized speed, deregulation, and America’s bid for global technological supremacy.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is no longer a theoretical or futuristic concept—it has become the defining force shaping global power structures, economic dominance, and societal transformation. The Trump administration has embraced AI as a strategic pillar of its national and economic security agenda, rejecting the regulatory caution of previous administrations in favor of an aggressive pro-growth, pro-competition strategy.

Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Paris AI Action Summit this week laid out the administration’s AI doctrine: America will lead AI innovation, resist regulatory overreach, safeguard free expression, and prioritize AI-driven economic expansion.

“I’d like to make four main points today. Number one, this administration will ensure that American AI technology continues to be the gold standard worldwide, and we are the partner of choice for others, foreign countries, and certainly businesses as they expand their own use of AI,” Vance said.

This is more than just an economic race. AI is now a geopolitical weapon. Vance made this explicit in Paris, declaring that AI and other emergent technology “are dangerous in the wrong hands, but are incredible tools for liberty and prosperity in the right hands.” The Trump administration is not merely aiming for leadership in AI—it is seeking outright dominance, positioning Washington as the global gatekeeper of AI capabilities.

AI Vs. Advanced AI: The Battle For Data Integrity In The Age Of Advanced Ransomware

Jim McGann

Many cybercriminals are rich. They might drive expensive cars and live in mansions, making millions annually. Some are funded by governments that use ransomware for cyber warfare, but most cyber organizations are just in it for money—lots of money.

Like any successful business, these criminal organizations have developed sophisticated software development departments that rival many of the companies they attack. Many threat actors have adopted advanced programming tools like Rust and have even embraced AI to deploy data corruption techniques that circumvent common security applications in place today.

Keeping Pace With The Threat Landscape

Many companies have not kept pace with these dangerous innovations and are vulnerable to the latest threats. Penetrating a data center has become straightforward, bypassing even the most advanced prevention applications responsible for safeguarding the organization.

This has been seen in very public examples, including the attack at MGM in Las Vegas where the bad actors at Scattered Spider called into the IT help desk and manipulated access to an administrative password as well as the Phobos variants bypassing prevention tools to gain access to critical infrastructure through vulnerabilities in remote desktop protocol (RDP) ports. Ransomware prevention tools are not futile; however, they're not enough to protect an organization's data.

19 February 2025

Assessing India’s Perceptions of China’s Nuclear Expansion

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan

China’s ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal may be aimed at eventually achieving nuclear parity with the United States. But regardless of the rationale, China’s nuclear expansion, along with possible changes to its nuclear doctrine, are of great concern to India, its neighbor in South Asia. This report—based on interviews with nearly two dozen Indian security experts, including former military and government officials—assesses India’s strategic thinking on China’s nuclear expansion, and what consequences it may have for India’s own nuclear development and US interests in Asia.

SummaryIndia is monitoring China’s ongoing expansion of its nuclear arsenal carefully, looking to identify China’s goals, gauge the impact on regional security, and determine its response.

A significant increase in the size of China’s nuclear arsenal, together with the adoption of a generally coercive posture toward India or a change in China’s no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy, could compel India to respond.

Interviews with former senior Indian civilian and military officials suggest that India’s response will not seek to match China’s nuclear expansion but will address the imbalance qualitatively, focusing on developing longer-range and submarine-launched missiles and other technological enhancements.

The strong expectation is that China will not abandon its NFU stance, though it may modify certain policies within its NFU stance.

There was consensus among the interviewees on most subjects, but they were divided about whether China’s nuclear force structure will continue to emphasize land-based missiles or shift to emphasize submarines, which India has limited ability to track.

India and the United States could both benefit from closer interactions on addressing the rationale and consequences of China’s nuclear expansion.

Indian Defense Production: Relying on Self-reliance

Ajai Shukla

On February 10, India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated a five-day defense systems exhibition in the country’s information technology capital, Bengaluru. Aero India 2025, as this ongoing biennial exhibition is called, is the 15th edition of what New Delhi touts as Asia’s biggest aerospace and defense exhibition. Participating this year are 900 exhibitors from 90 countries, including 100 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Defense ministers from over 30 countries are attending, either virtually or in person.

India, the world’s biggest spender in the international arms bazaar, is easily able to draw in the world’s biggest arms sellers. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)’s most recent report, India was the world’s top arms importer over the five-year period 2019-23, with imports rising by 4.7 percent compared to the 2014-18 period.

While the United States remains India’s premier arms supplier, France has slipped smoothly into second place. The manufacture in India of six Scorpene submarines, the purchase of 36 Rafale fighters, and the upgrade of 50 Mirage 2000 fighters have resulted in France supplanting Russia as India’s second-biggest weapons supplier. Even so, Moscow retains its stranglehold over large sections of India’s weapons imports, including T-90S tanks and armored personnel carriers, S-400 integrated air defense systems, Krivak III-class frigates, and Akula-class nuclear-powered submarines.

Now every major aerospace OEM is positioning itself to win the biggest prize in the international combat aircraft market: the Indian Air Force (IAF)’s ongoing acquisition of 114 medium fighters.

It's Not Just DeepSeek China is After

Steve Carmel

It’s not just DeepSeek, China wants to dominate the deep seas. Can Trump prevent that?

Every day, we are reminded of the challenges the U.S. faces in maintaining global leadership in critical industries and technologies. The recent DeepSeek revelation, which shocked the tech world, exposed how aggressively China is advancing in the artificial intelligence sector.

With DeepSeek reportedly matching U.S. AI capabilities in effectiveness but costing less, it’s clear that China isn’t holding back in its bid for global dominance.

DeepSeek’s ramifications are unsettling, but it doesn’t necessarily pose the greatest risk to U.S. national security. A far more pressing threat to our strategic interests lies in China’s rapid and unchecked progress in securing primacy over the world’s oceans.

In a report issued last month, the outgoing U.S. Trade Representative warned that China is aggressively targeting the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries: “we build less than 5 ships each year, while the PRC is building more than 1,700[.]” If America is to regain its edge in these critical sectors, swift and bold action will be necessary.”

Unfortunately, the U.S. shipbuilding industry has atrophied under years of neglect. As a result, China vastly outpaces the U.S. in the production of commercial vessels. This threat to our nation doesn’t stop at ship production. The logistics infrastructure that supports both civilian and military transport is just as critical—and it is here where the new Administration must act.

How Trump’s Gaza Plan Could Hand the Middle East to Russia and China

James Durso

U.S. President Donald Trump recently called the Gaza Strip a “demolition site,” and said the Palestinians would be evacuated to Jordan and Egypt, where they would be “thrilled” to live. The U.S. would then take possession of Gaza (“We'll own it’), and would develop it, creating “thousands of jobs,” making it the “the Riviera of the Middle East.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu noted the project, “it’s something that could change history,” and it will, but probably not the way he and Trump think.

Netanyahu called Trump’s idea to deport the Gazans “remarkable” and the “first good idea I've heard,” but just about everyone, everywhere reacted negatively to the plan. The White House quickly clarified the U.S. won’t pay for the reconstruction of Gaza, and it hasn’t made any commitment to send U.S. troops there, but an American private security company will be manning a key Gaza checkpoint and armed American military veterans wearing military-style garb will be as big a target as serving troops and will be valuable hostages.

In the U.S., many Arab American voters wondered if they made a mistake supporting Trump in 2024, and one Arab-American group rebranded, removing “Trump” from its name. According to Pew Research, Muslims will become the second-largest religious group in the U.S. by 2050 and is a demographic the Republicans needs to capture.

Jews continued voting for Democrats in 2024 (79% voted for Democrat candidate Kamala Harris; 21% voted for Trump, “the lowest proportion of Jewish votes for a Republican presidential candidate in 24 years.”)

Thus, the GOP may secure no net gain in votes and may suffer in the 2026 mid-term elections, so why bother doing this?

The Indo-Pacific: What You Need to Know Now

As the United States navigates a pivotal leadership transition, the Indo-Pacific region stands at the forefront of global strategic interests. The region is home to an uncertain mix of political disquiet, military peril, and economic potential, with issues like North Korea's nuclear ambitions, China's assertive territorial claims, and the delicate balance of power involving Taiwan shaping the narrative. All this makes the Indo-Pacific a crucial arena for U.S. foreign policy and the alliances and partnerships that will influence global trade and security frameworks moving forward.

We asked a team of RAND researchers with deep expertise on the various countries that make up the Indo-Pacific to assess the issues, objectives, and outlook for the region at this critical moment.Jeffrey Hornung highlights Japan's focus on maintaining U.S. commitments amid regional security concerns.

Miyeon Oh discusses the Korean Peninsula's security challenges, balancing U.S. alliances with economic ties to China.

Samuel Charap addresses Russia's shifting priorities post–Ukraine conflict, emphasizing its ties with China.

Raymond Kuo outlines Taiwan's goals to enhance U.S. relations and defense capabilities.

Jude Blanchette examines China's strategic maneuvers and its hopes for an enduring “honeymoon” in U.S.-China relations.

Through objective research and expert analyses, RAND contributes to better understanding of the Indo-Pacific's geopolitical landscape, offering invaluable guidance during this critical period of U.S. leadership transition.

Chinese Water Projects in Tibet: A “Continental Challenge”

Antonina Luszczy kiewicz-Mendis

The management of transboundary water resources originating in Tibet has become a critical geopolitical and geo-economic issue in Asia. This issue brief examines China’s hydrological projects on the Tibetan Plateau and their implications for downstream countries. By exploring two key pillars of China’s water strategy—the construction of mega-dams and the South-North Water Diversion Project—the issue brief discusses both the domestic and international consequences of Beijing’s initiatives, such as environmental degradation, displacement of local populations, and the potential for Beijing to weaponize water as a geopolitical tool. In particular, it focuses on tensions between China and India, the involvement of Tibetan expatriate leadership, and the role of the U.S.-China rivalry.

Donald Trump’s Machiavellian Instincts

James Holmes

The new president seems to implicitly grasp two core lessons from Machiavelli’s writing: the difficulty of fundamental change, and the need to strike quickly against his enemies.

Donald Trump is not Hitler, Stalin, or Mussolini. Instead, he is Niccolò Machiavelli! Or at any rate, were he among the living today, the Florentine philosopher-statesman would instantly grasp the newly-installed chief executive’s methods.

In popular lore, “Machiavelli” is an amoral, mustache-twirling purveyor of ends-justifies-the-means statecraft. That’s a caricature. The real Machiavelli was an on-again, off-again official in fifteenth- and sixteenth-century Florence. He penned such treatises as The Prince, The Art of War, and my favorite, his Discourses on Titus Livy’s History of Rome, to help princes and leaders of republics navigate the politics of Renaissance Italy. That was no easy feat. To describe Italy in the age of Machiavelli as a hardscrabble neighborhood understates the matter to a comical degree.

Surviving and thriving in Florence demanded a bare-knuckles approach to statecraft. That’s what Machiavelli prescribed. Along the way, he produced counsel commanding lasting if not eternal value for students and practitioners of statecraft. And his advice was surprisingly humane for the times and circumstances. He aimed to help political leaders consolidate their rule and, in so doing, make life secure and bearable for the populace they governed.

Per Machiavelli, rather than comport himself like a villain, a wise prince should “seek to make the people friendly to himself,” helping them live content. Same goes for the overseers of a republic. So much for the caricature.

Change And Its Enemies

America’s Deterrence Gap

Will Thibeau

Conventional wisdom traditionally delineates between military systems designed for strategic deterrence and those intended for tactical application. A machine gun, such as the M240B, firing 650 rounds per minute, is invaluable for a Ranger unit in combat but holds no deterrent effect on the grand strategic scale. In contrast, an aircraft carrier, strategic bomber, or nuclear submarine is resourced and evaluated precisely for its role in America’s strategic deterrence, shaping global power dynamics. However, the evolution of 21st-century warfare demands a reevaluation of this paradigm.

In February 2023, Austin Dahmer—a prominent America First foreign policy expert and current Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy—authored the white paper Resourcing the Strategy of Denial. Dahmer laid out the difficult, yet necessary budgetary and force structure choices required to build a Joint Force capable of deterring conflict with China. His analysis advocated for reallocating resources from the Army and Marine Corps toward the Navy and Air Force, given their critical role in the Indo-Pacific theater. Yet, in hindsight, a glaring omission in the report was the strategic importance of unmanned systems in deterrence. Given the timing, this oversight is understandable, but any modern revision must account for the now-undeniable fact that mass-produced, low-cost, attritable unmanned systems are a crucial pillar of deterrence in the Asia-Pacific.

A Tech Power Playbook for Donald Trump 2.0

Todd Young

In coming years, the pace of technological innovation and deployment will only quicken. The new administration will need a systematic and sustained approach.

On January 20, Donald J. Trump entered office as our nation’s forty-seventh chief executive. With his electoral mandate for bold change, the opportunities are boundless. Following recent decades of costly foreign entanglements—from our abusive relationship with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to our disastrous military engagement in Iraq—most Americans are understandably eager for change. They want President Trump to press forward with his campaign promises to avoid unpopular foreign commitments, insist that allied countries stop “free riding” off of the United States, supercharge America’s manufacturing might, and ensure that the world plays by America’s rules, not China’s.

Meanwhile, tech power—AI, biotech, quantum, drones, and more—is fundamentally transforming our economy, security, and the very nature of global power. The Trump administration can seize on the intersection of the president’s promises and the opportunities for peace, freedom, and prosperity that the dynamic technological revolution presents.

President Trump wisely selected a Vice President who understands tech power and how it is fundamentally transforming our economy and security. JD Vance is familiar with Silicon Valley and has strong relationships with prominent tech luminaries like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel. Just days after the election, Trump also appointed a White House AI and Crypto Czar to spearhead federal policy and nominated tech strategist Jacob Helberg to lead the economic portfolio at the State Department.

Syria’s Biggest Problem

Jesse Marks and Hazem Rihawi

The shocking defeat of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham prompted a groundswell of domestic and international optimism. But already, Syria’s post-Assad future is on a knife’s edge. The obstacles to reconstructing the country are immense. Chief among them is the question of refugees forced from the country during Syria’s decadelong civil war. The return of these refugees could become the largest repatriation operation in decades, with over six million Syrian refugees abroad and seven million displaced within Syria. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have already returned to their homeland, driven

Conflict Amplified: Disinformation and Hate in the Israel-Hamas War

As the Israel-Hamas conflict has widened into a broader crisis Middle East crisis during 2024, the information environment surrounding these events has become even more complex. This report investigates the spread and impact of mis- and disinformation, hate speech, and extremist narratives related to the Israel-Hamas conflict in the UK, France and Germany. Employing innovative methodologies developed alongside CASM Technology, ISD analysed extensive multilingual datasets from mainstream and fringe platforms. These datasets comprise of social media posts from actors based in (or focused on) the UK, France or Germany, who are known to routinely spread extremist and hateful content, disinformation and/or conspiracy theories. As such, this study identifies the key themes and moments of online escalation around the Israel-Hamas conflict.

The findings of these investigations reveal the centrality of hateful narratives targeting Jewish and Muslim communities in online conversation about the conflict, as well as opportunistic use of its developments by extremist groups, and the amplification of disinformation by hostile state-affiliated actors. This research emphasises the hybridised and evolving nature of online misinformation, hateful and extremist narratives, and the importance of adaptive countermeasures to address these threats. To mitigate these online threats and their impact on communities effectively, platforms must ensure the comprehensive enforcement of existing policies, as well as the development of specific crisis-response mechanisms that account for the sensitivities of escalating conflict.

Report of the Webinar: Climate Crisis in Tibet – Part I: CCP’s Tibet Takeover: Wither Global Climate Action?

Ute Wallenböck, Jonathan Ping, Mark S. Cogan, Tsering Topgyal, Jagannath Panda, Lena Fargier and Alexander Droop

This report is an outcome of the webinar titled “Climate Crisis in Tibet”, organized by the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), which was held on December 18, 2024. This significant online platform brought together a distinguished panel of experts to explore the environmental and geopolitical impacts of China’s policies in Tibet. This webinar addressed a few critical questions:What is the nature and scope of the environmental degradation in the Tibetan Plateau?

What is the extent and ambit of the CCP’s policies for governing Tibet that particularly impact Tibet’s environment?

What are the projected objectives of the CCP vis-à-vis Tibet (e.g., development aims to end poverty)?

And what is the true nature of its policy frameworks, including disinformation campaigns (e.g., via influencer management firms) and China’s persecution of Tibetan environmental activists?

What has been the actual short-term and long-term impact on the Tibetan region and its people due to the CCP’s policies?

How is China’s control of Tibetan territories, including religion and culture, impacting Tibet’s climatic conditions?

Are the CCP’s actions, including militarization and laws, in Tibet that have repercussions on Tibet’s climate change irreversible?

How can international multilateral forums, such as the IPCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and ICIMOD, include Tibetan voices and concerns proactively without fear of Chinese retaliation?

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