Mathew Burrows and Collin Meisel
Red Cell
Most forecasts of Russia’s Future project the same scene: Russia is caught in endless conflict with the West or will soon be absorbed by China. However, Russia has other options created by the shift of economic power from Europe to Asia, the curtailment of Western ties owing to the Ukraine War, climate change, the opening of the Arctic, and its own renewable energy potential. Publics and governments in Asia and the Global South also welcome a stronger Russia.
Its former Cold War superpower status will never return. However, with new sources of power and resilience, along with its status as a nuclear-armed great power, Russia could continue to play an outsized role in global politics. “Green shoots,” which many ignore, are sprouting that augur a very different Russia.
The Pivot to the East
Despite Russian president Vladimir Putin’s obsession with Ukraine and NATO, the Russian President clings to a longstanding belief in the country’s Eurasian destiny. According to Canadian scholar Paul Robinson, “from the second half of the 19th century, Russian artists and intellectuals increasingly stressed the Asian roots of much of Russian culture. The recourse in Russian conservative thought has been particularly strong when ties with Western Europe came under pressure.”
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