John Allen Gay
As the United States and Iran sit down for another round of talks in Rome, Tehran is debating the future of its nuclear weapons program. That’s not surprising. Yet, the bomb won’t solve the Islamic Republic’s deterrence problem. It will put Iran in an arms race it cannot win, and it will give Iran an option at the top of the escalation ladder when its problems run all the way up and down it.
There are various positions in the Iranian nuclear conversation: outright weaponization, revision of Iranian nuclear doctrine, a repeal of the fatwa against nuclear weapons, enrichment to weapons grade, advanced weaponization research, or some combination of the above. All are intended to raise Iran’s level of deterrence.
There has been favorable discussion of Kenneth Waltz’s view that the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East could result in regional stability if an Iranian bomb countered Israel’s. Indeed, there is an obvious logic to Iran considering nuclear weapons. An operational nuclear program would make any adversary think twice before hitting Iran.
Most discussion of Iranian nuclear acquisition has centered on whether Iran can quickly build a weapon without triggering an Israeli or American strike. Yet, there’s not enough focus on the day after Iran gets a bomb. Iran would be taking its first step into the world of nuclear deterrence. That world is not a destination, but a new zone of competition. And this would diminish Iran’s benefits from weaponization, since Iran is not well-positioned for that competition.
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