Deng Yuwen
Despite threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose sweeping tariffs worldwide, only China has truly stood firm. The European Union and Canada have also displayed tough attitudes, but Beijing has responded with two rounds of reciprocal tariffs against the United States, alongside nontariff measures such as export controls, the addition of new U.S. firms to China’s “unreliable entity list,” and antitrust investigations. Rhetorically, China has declared it will “fight to the end” against what it calls Washington’s unilateralism.
Beijing is under no illusion that this course of action will offend Trump. It understands well that to “fight to the end” may lead to a complete halt in bilateral trade—tantamount to an economic decoupling in practice. With current tariff rates now effectively nearing 150 percent, and exemptions limited to essential or irreplaceable goods, most trade is no longer feasible. Prior to diplomatic normalization, bilateral trade between the two nations was only around $2 billion. If trade today can be maintained at even 20 percent of pre-tariff levels, under these rules, it would be considered a success.
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