Geopolitical Scenario
The military presence can be seen as a calculated attempt to leverage power dynamics, extending the option of negotiations while maintaining a credible threat. However, the risk of an actual conflict remains high due to Iran’s perception of an imminent threat and the broader geopolitical context. The presence of B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia (at least six – 30% of the US Air Force’s stealth bomber fleet), previously used in major Middle East operations, suggests that military action is being seriously considered, even if it remains a last resort.
From Iran’s perspective, Trump’s threats lack credibility given his historical pattern of aggressive rhetoric, followed by diplomatic overtures. However, the Islamic Republic cannot afford to ignore the possibility of a strike, prompting discussions within Tehran’s high command about pre-emptive actions. If Iran believes an attack is imminent, it may strike first, leading to a rapid escalation.
In past confrontations, particularly during tensions with Israel, Iran has threatened to target regional oil fields if US-aligned Gulf nations were to support an attack against it. A similar scenario could unfold again, with the potential to not only push Gulf countries into a mediating role but also disrupt oil supplies from the Gulf—an outcome that would heavily impact European nations reliant on energy imports from the region. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have consequently imposed a ban on US warplanes using their air fields or skies to attack Iran.
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