Hal Brands
Donald Trump anointed himself, in his second inaugural, as the world’s “peacemaker.” Just three months later, his presidency is consumed by conflict. The coming months will be Trump’s season of crisis, a legacy-making period in which he must navigate three hot wars, a cold war, a potential war and a trade war.
Unfortunately, he’s starting from a deficit of his own making: His decisions have left America’s alliances strained, its economic power tattered, and its strategic competence in question.
The first war is the one Trump has always seemed most confident about ending: the cataclysmic conflict in Ukraine. Trump wagered that making peace would be easy — a matter of menacing Russia with sanctions and forcing Ukraine to give up on regaining lost lands. Yet Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s maximalist aims, and his belief that he is slowly winning, have made reaching a settlement all too hard.
Trump must choose, in the coming weeks, whether to really squeeze Russia — through harsher oil sanctions and other economic coercion, along with continued military and intelligence support for Ukraine — or walk away and let the war take its course. The first course would be distasteful for a president who often shows sympathy for Moscow and contempt for Kyiv. The second, by raising the risk of a Ukrainian defeat, could be disastrous for the security of Europe and the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
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