Don Rassler and Yannick Veilleux-Lepage
The Russo-Ukrainian War has emerged as an innovation hub. While “every war offers a window into how future wars will be waged,”1 the case of Ukraine stands apart as particularly unique. The conflict has revolutionized the role and scope of drone warfare and the operational use of artificial intelligence, pushing the boundaries of applied warfare in human-machine teaming. In addition, the sourcing of materiel inputs for the war has involved a combination of state-level assistance and the widespread, scaled, and innovative use of commercially available systems and components. This ranges from the deployment of thousands of DJI drones2 to the critical integration of commercial components in state-produced systems, such as Iran’s Shahed drones.3 The war has also been unique due to the diverse mix and convergence of actors who are supporting the two warring parties. General Bryan Fenton, the leader of U.S. Special Operations Command, recently noted that the conflict exemplifies a form of adversarial convergence: “This is not just Russia fighting Ukraine … It’s Russia, backed by Iranian drones, North Korean personnel and indirect Chinese contributions.”4 Faced with these developments, the United States and its allies are closely monitoring the innovations and advancements resulting from the war. Many of these innovations are not only worth emulating but may also pose challenges that Western forces will need to contend with in the future.5 However, other actors, including violent extremist organizations (VEOs), are also observing these developments, and it is likely that they will inspire new terror drone tactics and strategies.
This article traces the evolution of terrorist use of drones and forecasts how the ongoing conflict in Ukraine will likely shape the future trajectory of terrorist drone usage. To achieve this, the article analyzes five key trends affecting the drone landscape, focusing on critical concerns, capabilities, and risks relevant to the future of drone terrorism. The article is organized into three parts. Part I provides a high-level overview of the past and present state of the terrorist drone threat, arguing that terrorist drone usage follows a pattern of relative stability punctuated by bursts of rapid innovation. Part II introduces the novel VEO Drone CapabilityImpact Framework, which situates drone use developments during the Ukrainian conflict in relation to component and system level changes and their associated potential for surprise and impact.
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