George Friedman
I normally avoid personalizing geopolitical events, since I regard nations, not leaders, to be the agents of history. But there are moments when the focus must be on leaders, especially in the course of international conflicts in which neither side can claim a decisive victory. The negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are one such moment.
In some ways, the talks are similar to the Paris Peace Accords, which ended the war in Vietnam. The U.S. had not been defeated militarily, but in not winning the war, it effectively lost. The Viet Cong won by not being defeated. A war in which no one is victorious is the most difficult type of conflict to end. Dealing with Japan and Germany after World War II was simple in that both were soundly defeated. The Paris peace talks were much more complicated. But the outcome was inevitable: Each side would maneuver for internal political reasons to preserve its national reputation. The U.S. position was that it was prepared to continue the war if a reasonable settlement was not reached. The Viet Cong position was the same. The difference was that the Viet Cong were much more interested in the outcome than Washington was. They had fought to conquer their own nation. The U.S. had fought as a show of will and demonstration of national power. North Vietnam would be shattered by making great concessions. The U.S. would not. Yet each side was weary and wary of the other, so the inevitable conclusion of the talks pivoted not on results but on appearances: pride and international standing.
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