Rym Momtaz
A core group of European leaders has stepped up in recent weeks to ensure the continent’s security isn’t steamrolled in a United States-Russia settlement in Ukraine.
The flurry of meetings of this so-called “coalition of the willing” has defined a three-pronged approach to Ukraine: supercharging the Ukrainian military’s ability to defend against Russian aggression, reaching a ceasefire with a verification mechanism, and deterring any additional or future Russian attacks.
This European strategy for Ukraine has been the result of UK-French leadership. And the talks have stood out because of their speed and intensity as well as their unprecedented format—discussing European security without the United States coordinating.
But, at this stage, the numbers don’t add up and statements by leaders have dangerously raised expectations, setting themselves up for failure. As currently defined, each of the three objectives laid out by Europeans for bolstering their and Ukraine’s security remain out of reach.
The Europeans can’t impose a ceasefire in Ukraine, but have made it a prerequisite for their deterrent in-country deployment. Even leaders as influential with U.S. President Donald Trump as French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, or Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni are struggling to shape negotiations over Ukraine and don’t have a clear understanding of Trump’s dealbreakers.
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