Dana Stroul
The Iranian regime is on its back foot, more vulnerable internally and exposed abroad than at any point since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Before Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent multipronged war on Iranian interests, Iran’s huge investments in its missile arsenal, its nuclear weapons program, and its network of regional proxy actors had sharply constrained the United States’ strategy toward the Middle East. Washington’s Iran-focused policy analysts remained divided on just what mix of tools would effectively deter Iranian aggression, but they generally agreed that if Tehran were pushed too hard, it would retain a menu of retaliatory options that risked full-scale war. Four successive U.S. presidents—George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump in his first term, and Joe Biden—all settled on using diplomacy and sanctions for deterrence and never authorized military strikes inside Iranian territory.
Israel’s operational successes have shattered those preconceptions—and opened a window of opportunity to finish dismantling Iran’s regional threat network and build a safer and more stable Middle East. Key leaders throughout Iran’s so-called axis of resistance have been killed, and tens of thousands of Iranian-backed fighters have been taken off the battlefield. Axis arsenals have been devastated, and Israel has degraded the Iranian military-industrial complex that once replenished them. When Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus in December, Tehran’s leaders lost a crucial ally who had helped them turn Syria into the transit hub they used to resupply its proxy militias with weapons, funds, and fighters. Its two ballistic missile attacks on Israel in 2024 were a failure that further degraded its deterrence as well as its affiliate groups’ morale, calling Tehran’s value as a patron into question.
No comments:
Post a Comment