Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh
Across the political spectrum in Tehran — from surly Revolutionary Guards to the regime’s more moderate diplomats and technocrats — the first round of nuclear talks in Oman between the United States and the Islamic Republic has been greeted with a measure of optimism. Iran’s savvy and smug foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, professed himself satisfied. The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has blessed a second meeting with President Donald Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, scheduled in Rome this weekend.
In other words, far from being a supplicant, the Islamic Republic is exuding confidence.
For too long, U.S. officials have fooled themselves about the nuclear-deterrent capacity of economic sanctions. Now that the Trump administration has decided to reopen negotiations, it’s important that they understand their adversary better, particularly the limits of sanctions to affect Iran’s behavior.
To be sure, sanctions (along with chronic mismanagement and systemic corruption) have depleted Iran’s treasury and spurred inflation and unemployment. The regime can barely keep the lights on and periodically has to shutter government offices and schools in order to conserve energy. But for regime leaders who claim to know the mind of God, those economic troubles are a small price to pay for making Iranians better Muslims. The Islamic Republic’s affection for proxy wars, terrorism and antisemitic conspiracies display a mindset fundamentally different from our own. Sanctions may cause such believers pain. They deprive them of resources. But they haven’t in the slightest obliged them to forsake their faith and their missions.
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