Burcu Ozcelik
Since U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected Oval Office announcement that talks with Iran would take place in Oman, diplomacy sceptics on both sides of the Atlantic have described a range of scenarios, from bad to worse to apocalyptic.
Critics warn that even initiating dialogue could backfire. Talks could embolden Tehran or allow its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) space to take covert action against the United States. The possible consequences of a failed negotiation are also important to consider. The likelihood of military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets may have diminished, but the option remains firmly within the realm of near possibility. The recent uptick in U.S. force posture across the region—including increased activity at the Diego Garcia base—underscores that the military option is far from shelved.
The Iranians are walking into the talks from an indisputable position of weakness. Israel’s multi-front military offensive since the October 7 attacks has systematically degraded both the symbolic power projection of Iran-affiliated proxies in the region, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as their military strike capabilities and material assets. The Houthis in Yemen are also under intensified aerial strikes. These are just the most recent losses. Iran suffered a major setback in 2020 when a U.S. drone strike killed its top IRGC general Qassem Soleimani at a Baghdad airport.
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