24 April 2025

The Danger of a Trump Doctrine for Taiwan

Philip Hou

In his first foreign policy blitz of his second term, President Donald Trump is aiming to reshape the United States’ global footprint with bold strokes: imposing sweeping tariffs on China in a bid to revive domestic manufacturing, while exploring options to acquire Greenland for its strategic access to the Arctic and to annex Canada as the 51st state to dominate the Americas. The Trump administration is also extricating the United States from its responsibilities in Ukraine through direct negotiations with Russia to end the war – even if it means justifying Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s eastern flanks on the basis that they are “Russian-speaking.”

This new Trump Doctrine of dominating the Western Hemisphere while scaling back commitments elsewhere in the world could have tangible effects on U.S. policy toward Taiwan. Will the United States continue to serve as a trustworthy partner and security backer for Taiwan, as it has for decades? A second Trump presidency may bring about a transactional U.S. retrenchment, leaving Taiwan dangerously exposed – unless Taipei adopts a more self-sufficient and politically flexible posture.

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