Mark Cancian
The Trump administration seeks to make the defense of Taiwan a central element of its Pacific strategy, but its trade policies are making that defense more difficult and conflict more likely. Coupled with its undisguised contempt for allies and partners, it is its own worst enemy.
President Donald Trump has frequently discussed a Pacific strategy, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has reportedly made the defense of Taiwan a key mission in his Interim National Security Guidance. Although classified, the guidance reportedly states, "China is the Department's sole pacing threat, and denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan while simultaneously defending the U.S. homeland is the Department's sole pacing scenario."
In this, Trump and Hegseth continue a bipartisan policy that has been in place since Mao and his People's Liberation Army drove the Nationalists off the mainland in 1949. Its importance has increased dramatically in the 21st century. Previously, China focused on having a large army while leaving its air and naval forces weak. Experts derided a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as "a million man swim." That changed in the 21st century as China undertook an extraordinary military buildup. For example, its Navy went from 140 obsolescent ships in 2003 to 234 modern ships today. Its rhetoric has also turned nationalist and has been increasingly insistent about reuniting Taiwan with the mainland. President Xi Jinping even appears to have set a deadline of 2027 for China's military to be ready for such an operation.
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