Professor Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann
Beijing considers Taiwan as a breakaway province and President Xi Jinping has made it the expressed national aim of reunification—peaceful or by military means. Stopping short of military force, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) and its services have engaged in acts of sea cable cuttings; continuing PLA incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) by PLA aircraft; PLA Navy (PLAN) exercises using a combination of conventional and unconventional naval assets (such as maritime militia) as a show of force; to harass Taiwanese civilian shipping; and to highlight Beijing’s ability to control the water ways around Taiwan. Showcasing this ability is crucial for Beijing to signal that it can impose a full air and maritime quarantine of Taiwan and also can switch to full blockade if necessary.
Beijing’s recent two day military exercises around Taiwan, called Strait Thunder – 2025A, was intended as a show of force of Land, Air, and Sea capabilities and manoeuvres to demonstrate the PLA’s overall military strength and capabilities. The idea is to illustrate an overwhelming force that can annihilate the Taiwanese peoples’ will to resist an invasion by the PLA.
Trump 2.0’s focus on China and the region
The US under Donald Trump 2.0 is clearly strategically pivoting towards the region while reducing its focus on Eastern Europe, even withdrawing substantial numbers of troops. Trump’s National Defence Strategy may end the strategic ambiguity over Taiwan by including an explicit commitment towards maintaining the status quo of an independent and sovereign Taiwan. The denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan has become the Department of Defense’s “sole pacing scenario,” and is tied to the precondition of a strengthening of Taiwan’s resolve to defend itself as well as increase defence spending.
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