Dr Philip Shetler-Jones
‘Grey zone’ as a qualifier for challenges, threats and even warfare describes an approach that seeks results from action below the threshold of war or armed conflict. Attempts to frame a precise definition raise theoretical and practical questions. Can action ‘below the threshold’ of war be a form of ‘warfare’, or is the threshold subjective and open to manipulation? Can grey zone action be deterred without threatening to cross the line into a state of war? How can the victim of aggression escape a trap where moves to deter grey zone challenges attract condemnation for ‘provocation’ or ‘escalation’ that might be more damaging than the original attack?
China’s ‘campaign against Taiwan’, which Sir Alex Younger, former Chief of the UK Secret Intelligence Service, described as ‘a textbook on subversion, cyber and political harassment’, presents a compelling case study for understanding the grey zone phenomenon. While Taiwan’s situation is distinctive in some ways, the grey zone pressures it faces – including incidents such as sabotage of undersea infrastructure, election interference and digitalised disinformation – closely parallel those faced by other countries in Europe and Asia.
An understanding of Taiwan’s evolving response to the grey zone is instructive for policymakers experiencing similar challenges. The purpose of this policy brief is to draw insights from Taiwan’s experience, leading to policy recommendations that could have wider application. The brief traces the emergence and defining features of the ‘grey zone’ concept, then looks at China’s actions and Taiwan’s responses, and concludes with recommendations.
No comments:
Post a Comment