Hudson Institute
By Can Kasapoğlu
1. Battlefield Assessment
According to defense intelligence reports from the United Kingdom, the pace of Russia’s territorial gains decreased last month. But Ukraine continues to struggle to generate sufficient manpower to face Russia’s forces, which the Kremlin has augmented with record-high conscriptions and North Korean troops.
In March Russia seized 55 square miles of Ukrainian territory. In comparison, Russian forces captured more than 280 square miles of Ukrainian soil in November 2024. The Russian military is now gaining less than two square miles per day, sometimes at a cost of over 1,000 casualties. This is in part a result of Ukraine’s efforts to stabilize the front in Pokrovsk, a fulcrum of its defensive architecture for the eastern half of the country.
Still, the slowing pace of Russia’s territorial gains does not mean that the Kremlin has reduced its operational tempo. The Pokrovsk front, particularly the axis approaching the city from the southwest, continues to see intense fighting and heavy casualties. The Russian military also registered tactical gains near Velyka Novosilka and the important flashpoint of Kharkiv.
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