Henrik Praks
Introduction
As Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has entered its fourth year, its hybrid attacks have become a regular occurrence across Europe.1 While the focus previously was on activities in the cyber and information domains, Russia now frequently employs kinetic attacks. Cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and attempts to manipulate electoral processes are accompanied by sabotage against infrastructure, arson, and other physical attacks conducted by persons recruited by Russian intelligence services. Moreover, Russia and its vassal state of Belarus utilise migration pressure against neighbouring countries, while navigation systems in many areas are affected by electronic interference. Since late 2023, four commercial ships travelling to or from Russian ports in the Baltic Sea have been suspected of cutting data and electricity cables as well as the seabed gas pipeline.
These malign activities can no longer be dismissed as mere nuisance, given their rising frequency and intensity. Russia’s aggressive actions now represent an escalating campaign of hybrid warfare, directly affecting the security and stability of European nations. As Russia is not unique in using hybrid methods, their effects and our response are closely followed by other actors, first and foremost China. Autocratic regimes favour hybrid warfare precisely because democratic states struggle with responding directly and proportionally while also being more open and much easier to penetrate for such subterfuge. The attacks are usually deliberately designed to complicate detection, evade accountability, and hinder decisive responses. Additionally, the targeted nations may lack the capability or the political will to respond effectively.
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