Janusz Bugajski
Poland has been reinvigorating its military preparations for a potential war with Russia since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Warsaw is bolstering its defenses in anticipation of the growing likelihood of direct armed conflict with its perennial historical rival, given the uncertainties surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to broker peace between Moscow and Kyiv, as well as the prospect of Russia consolidating its territorial gains in Ukraine. The Polish government calculates that if Washington forces Ukraine to surrender parts of its territory and elements of its sovereignty, while Russia is enabled to restore its economy and military through the lifting of economic sanctions, then Poland will be on the front lines of the next war.
In recent weeks, the coalition government of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has taken several domestic and international steps to strengthen Poland’s military capabilities and social preparedness. In a major speech in parliament on March 7, Tusk explained the basis for Poland’s accelerated military buildup (Euromaidan Press, March 7). Tusk warned that intelligence reports shared by allies indicate that Moscow is planning for a significantly larger war within three to four years by massively investing in its military expansion and capacity for mobilization. Tusk also noted that it was unlikely that Ukraine would receive any hard security guarantees from the United States under any prospective peace deal, meaning that Poland’s predicament had become more dangerous.
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