Personnel Problems Are Becoming Personal Problems for Xi Jinping

Willy Wo-Lap Lam

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Political developments among the elite are beginning to point to a dramatic truncation of the power of the “core of the party center” (党中央的核心), Xi Jinping. A recent article from the official mouthpiece of the military, the PLA Daily, reminds readers that “our principle is that the Party commands the gun” (我们的原则是党指挥枪) (PLA Daily, March 10). Another from the Party’s primary newspaper, the People’s Daily, urges readers to “ensure that the ‘knife handle’ is firmly held in the hands of the Party and the people” (确保“刀把子”牢牢掌握在党和人民手中) (People’s Daily, January 12). The “gun” and the “knife handle” are metonyms for the Party’s two sources of hard power, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the domestic security apparatus. For over 18 months, Xi’s protégés—or at least people appointed under Xi—have been disappearing from leadership positions across these systems.

These personnel shifts have undercut Xi’s hold on power, though this does not necessarily mean that he faces a clear challenger or that he is in danger of imminent removal. Xi, a 71-year-old princeling, is currently serving his third five-year term as head of the party, the military, and the government. He still seems destined to remain at least nominally at the helm until the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 21st National Congress convenes, likely in late 2027. At that point, he may garner a fourth five-year term. If so, his top-dog status will be maintained until the 22nd Party Congress in late 2032. However, it is unlikely he will be given the latitude to pursue his personal program in the way he has been in years past.