Manipur and the Myanmar Conflict: Challenge for India with Implications for Regional Security Competition

Srini Sitaraman

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The ongoing internal conflict in Myanmar is not just an isolated struggle; its ripple effects are fueling long-term ethnic tensions in Manipur, India. The political instability, armed resistance, and humanitarian crisis unfolding across Myanmar’s western states—particularly in Chin, Kachin, and Shan—are directly linked to the ethnic conflict in Manipur. As Myanmar remains embroiled in a civil war against the ruling Tatmadaw military junta, the conflict’s transnational impact continues to exacerbate the already fragile ethnic dynamics in India’s northeastern states. This interconnected security challenge requires a nuanced, multi-faceted, and conscious response from New Delhi, recognizing the unique circumstances faced by each border state.

Manipur: The Epicenter of Spillover Effects

Although the India-Myanmar border spans 1,100 miles with three key northeastern states—Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram—the Myanmar conflict disproportionately affects Manipur’s security environment. Unlike Nagaland and Mizoram, where cross-border ethnic kinship exists but is less volatile, Manipur is experiencing an intensified security crisis due to the deep ethnic linkages between Myanmar’s western provinces and Manipur’s Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities. The Free Movement Regime (FMR), which historically allowed unrestricted cross-border movement, has facilitated the movement of refugees, armed militants, and illicit trafficking networks.[1] This has further complicated Manipur’s existing ethnic strife as armed groups leverage the border to regroup, reinforce, and retaliate against rival factions.[2]

The ongoing clashes between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities in Manipur mirror the broader ethnic divisions in Myanmar, making the situation even more volatile.[3] Cross-border kinship ties have led to the direct involvement of armed factions on both sides, escalating violence within Manipur.[4] The porous border has also enabled the influx of weapons and narcotics from Myanmar, aggravating security concerns for India. Given Manipur’s unique geographic and ethnic context, the Myanmar conflict catalyzes and prolongs the extreme internal instability in the state.[5]