Joshua Kurlantzick
Even before the massive earthquake that struck Myanmar and parts of Thailand today, Myanmar was already one of the most troubled and impoverished countries in the world. Following a coup in 2021, the junta has been fighting a bloody war against opposition groups. The junta has lost a lot of ground (though the opposition may be hurt by the U.S. withdrawal of non-lethal aid under the Trump administration) and faced massive defections, low morale, and a declining ability to fight ground battles in rugged terrain.
As a result, the junta has turned to dropping bombs indiscriminately on villages, a war crime. It also has become increasingly dependent on support from North Korea and sometimes Russia, though Russia has its own battles to worry about.
As Human Rights Watch notes in its most recent cataloging of atrocities in Myanmar: “The junta has driven the country further into a human rights and humanitarian catastrophe. At least 55 townships are under martial law. Faced with opposition from the general population and pro-democracy armed groups, the military has struggled to maintain control over the country. The junta’s widespread and systematic abuses against the population—including arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings, and indiscriminate attacks on civilians—amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes … At least 24,000 anti-coup protesters have been arrested since the coup, and 4,000 killed, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. The Peace Research Institute of Oslo estimates actual figures are much higher … [The] military [has] used a thermobaric bomb during an attack on an opposition building in the village of Pa Zi Gyi in Sagaing Region, killing more than 160 people, including many children. This enhanced-blast type munition caused indiscriminate and disproportionate civilian casualties in violation of international humanitarian law and was an apparent war crime.” This was but one of many indiscriminate air attacks by the junta.
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