Charles Lister
For much of the past two decades, the Islamic State (ISIS) has enjoyed favorable conditions in Syria, but since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, dynamics have changed. With Assad’s departure, ISIS lost its long-standing and vitally important safe haven in Syria’s central desert and its most significant driver for recruitment. The results — so far — have been dramatic.
In 2024, ISIS was resurgent in Syria, conducting an average of 59 attacks per month, but since Assad’s departure on Dec. 8, 2024, its operational tempo has fallen by 80% — to just 12 attacks per month, on average. Even more significantly, the deadliness of ISIS’s attacks has plunged by 97% — from an average of 63 killed per month under Assad in 2024 to just 2 per month since then.
There are several reasons for this dramatic change, all of which relate to new dynamics that came into play when Assad’s regime fell. These changes will prove fleeting, however, if Syria’s new reality is not managed well. Ultimately, ISIS’s durable defeat will come about only if Syria’s transition succeeds — with the formation of a government that represents all of the country’s rich diversity; with an economy that is given air to breathe through sanctions relief, substantial investment, infrastructure rehabilitation, and reconstruction; and with the gradual demobilization of a society over-militarized by nearly 14 years of brutal civil conflict.
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