Executive Summary
Iran recognizes the vital role artificial intelligence (AI) will play in its future economic viability, regional influence, and national security and has begun to implement a top-down effort to achieve regional technological competitiveness. Since the Supreme Leader issued a directive in 2021, Iran has endeavored to develop a national strategy and oversight mechanism for AI and foster a technological ecosystem to drive domestic research and development. However, two key factors — Tehran’s global economic isolation, and its deeply entrenched system of government control and oversight — have almost certainly hindered Iran’s national AI development.
In 2024, as Tehran’s support for its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah against Israel embroiled Iran in unprecedented regional conflicts and ongoing cyberwarfare, new insights emerged about how Iran has implemented AI technologies in its national security apparatus. Iran has used AI to bolster its capabilities in four main areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, military and intelligence systems, and domestic repression. These priorities will continue to propel Iran’s development and implementation of AI, almost certainly posing an increasing threat to Iran’s Western and regional adversaries. In cyberspace, AI will likely augment Iranian threat actors’ spearphishing and social engineering tradecraft, while AI’s implementation in Iran’s drone and missile arsenal is likely to pose the greatest physical threat from emerging technology.
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