How China sees the future and what it means for NATO

Alice Politi

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China’s rise has been met with concerns over its global vision and aspirations by the United States and its like-minded partners. Whilst China is not part of the North Atlantic region, its rise has direct and critical implications for NATO’s key interests. As this paper analyses, this is especially evident regarding China’s fast-growing military modernisation and its projection of power in the South China Sea. This is of particular significance considering the growing interest in the region of NATO members, as well as risks deriving from current NATO members’ critical dependencies on China, and engagement in sensitive areas, such as 5G and AI.1 Therefore, this paper aims to contribute on this timely issue and investigate the implications of China’s rise on Euro-Atlantic security, focusing on the ways China’s geopolitical behaviour could become a threat to NATO and how NATO could face the challenges posed by a rising China.

This paper is divided into three main sections, each addressing key aspects of China’s geopolitical ambitions and their implications for NATO’s strategic interests. The first section examines China’s stated geopolitical objectives for the centenary of the People’s Republic in 2049, drawing on official Chinese government documents that outline the country’s long-term goals. This section also explores China’s anticipated, but unstated, geopolitical aims for 2049, delving into predicted objectives that, while not explicitly mentioned in government sources, are expected to be integral to China’s pursuit of its second “centenary goal.” The second section focuses on the issue of Taiwan, analysing how China’s ambitions for 2049 intersect with its approach to Taiwan and what implications this may entail for NATO’s strategic interests. This section discusses potential scenarios and their relevance to NATO, particularly in terms of crisis management and regional stability. The third section assesses the feasibility of China achieving its “Great Rejuvenation” goals in light of the economic challenges the country currently faces. By analysing both the stated and anticipated geopolitical aims, this paper evaluates whether these am itions could pose potential threats to NATO’s interests. The conclusion of the study offers actionable policy recommendations based on the findings of the analysis.