Pavel K. Baev
Russia is one of the few countries not directly affected by the new U.S. trade tariffs. The effects on its economy, however, are still profound, while the political consequences are open to interpretation. The revenues from oil and gas exports have been declining since the start of the year, and the current drop in oil prices is expected to lead to a further and deeper contraction (Kommersant, April 4). Moscow’s stock market experienced a sharp plunge, and various supply chains, already warped and lengthened by sanctions, have been further disrupted (RBC, April 3; The Moscow Times, April 4). The decision by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) states to relax oil production quotas has led to a diminished influence for this cartel in global energy markets (The Moscow Times, April 4). This turmoil could have made it easier for Russian President Vladimir Putin to camouflage his sabotage of the U.S.-led efforts at peace-making in his war against Ukraine, but in fact, the pressure from many quarters remains intense.
Seeking to explain away his intransigence, Putin dispatched his most amicable negotiator, Kirill Dmitriev, to Washington. He secured meetings with several influential officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (Izvestiya, April 4). This youthful, business-minded envoy had no authority to soften Putin’s rigid conditions for a ceasefire, but attempted to explore other avenues for possible cooperation, ranging from cooperation in the Arctic to the exploration of rare earth elements (Svoboda.org, April 4). The incentives he was able to offer were not particularly tempting, while Putin’s procrastination appears to be leading to harsher sanctions against Russian oil exports (Novaya gazeta Europe, April 1). Still, Dmitriev may count Rubio’s assertion that Russia has “several weeks, not months” to demonstrate readiness to make a peace deal as an achievement (Meduza, April 4).
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