Markus Holmgren
Introduction
The quantum industry is experiencing a boom. Although useful market-ready solutions are yet to be developed, expectations of revolutionary new capabilities – from codebreaking to secure communications and scientific development – fuel increased investment, research, and development in the quantum industry. These promises of future capabilities also influence geostrategic thinking and actions today, by guiding both build-up efforts and pre-emptive actions to slow down the development of strategic adversaries.
The influence of quantum technologies development is clearly visible in the tech rivalry between China and the United States, driven by growing concerns that one side may gain a major strategic advantage. Figure 1 illustrates this dynamic, as well as the fact that China and the US are far from the only relevant actors in the field, even if they compete with the widest range of strategies and methods. Public funding for quantum initiatives, as shown in the figure, is on the rise, and although its fulfilment is uncertain, it still influences the actions of others.
The intensifying tech rivalry increasingly forces companies and research organisations to choose between Chinese or US products in their supply chains. At the same time, global competition for talent has intensified, as many Chinese researchers and engineers who once filled Western research labs have either returned to China voluntarily or been rejected by the US, thus providing China with an influx of returning talent.
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