James Stavridis
With the US and China announcing increasingly punitive tariffs against one another over the last week, we have zoomed past theorizing about a “new cold war” and into the opening rounds of a very real trade war. It could conclude with a “big, beautiful” deal with China, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly promised. Or it could lead to a prolonged and painful decoupling of the world’s two largest economies if both sides dig in, something China seems prepared to do. Time will tell.
Yet the question I am constantly asked is not about a trade war. It is: Are we headed toward a hot war with China? The short answer is that I hope not, of course, but I am increasingly concerned about the trends. I spent the majority of my Navy career in the Pacific, and I never felt we were as close to an actual shooting war with Beijing as we are today.
So, is actual conflict truly drawing closer? What are the best indicators to watch, so we could hopefully avoid a full-blown war? As I survey the scene of the Pacific, I see five warning lights that are blinking yellow, and need to be closely monitored in case they turn red.
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