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2 April 2025

Fergana Valley: Stability, Development, and Strategic Interests


Executive Summary

The Fergana Valley, a strategically significant region in Central Asia, has long been a focal point of geopolitical tensions and economic development challenges. Spanning Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, unresolved border disputes, ethnic tensions, terrorism, and economic fragility have shaped the valley.

Recent agreements on border demarcation between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan provide an opportunity for enhanced regional stability, economic integration, and industrial growth. The possible success of infrastructural projects such as CASA-1000 and the expansion of industrial clusters will play a critical role in determining the valley’s future.

External actors, including China, Russia, and the United States, also have vested interests in the valley’s stability, given its strategic importance in trade and security. Addressing existing challenges will require strong regional cooperation, transparent governance, and sustained economic investment.

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