Peter Franklin
In the wake of Donald Trump’s hot-and-cold trade war, Europe has attempted to get closer to China. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez this week flew out to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing, while a visit by European Union leaders is on the cards for July. Last year the Europeans were still in defensive mode, slapping their own tariffs on Chinese vehicle imports — but now these could be negotiated away.
With transatlantic relations strained to breaking point, drawing closer to America’s greatest rival might therefore seem in order. While the move is understandable, the question remains as to whether it is smart. Oren Cass argued for the Financial Times yesterday that the new American worldview is not motivated by delusions of grandeur — in fact, quite the opposite. The unipolar world order was always a temporary phenomenon, and now it’s over. The US will have its sphere of influence, but other great powers — especially China — will have theirs, too. That’s why the European attempt to flirt with Xi to make Trump jealous won’t work. The new America isn’t looking for flattery: it’s asking its allies to pick a side.
That’s not a real choice, of course. Besides political or military considerations, American companies have roughly $4 trillion invested in Europe, while the figure for European organisations in the US is $3.4 trillion. These sums dwarf the continent’s limited stakes in China; so when America says that it wants a new relationship based on balanced trade, higher defence spending and a common front against Chinese influence, Europe needs to listen.
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