Steve Ferenzi & David Harden
Pandas, Dragons, and Irregular Deterrence—oh my!
With their charming appearance, gentle demeanor, and playful behavior, pandas are adored worldwide. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) deceptively uses this disarming motif to present itself as a gentle giant while obfuscating its global predatory, neocolonial behavior. But hiding inside the PRC’s cheap panda suit is a red dragon seeking to prey on the Middle East and Central Asia. Unfortunately, the singular U.S. focus on Taiwan creates blinders enabling the PRC to “securitize its greater periphery” by capturing strategic geography and human terrain globally beyond the Indo-Pacific. To comprehensively shape PRC decision calculus over Taiwan and other areas of U.S. national interest, the United States must exploit outsized gray zone deterrence opportunities via irregular warfare in the Central Region. Otherwise, bureaucratic and cognitive stovepipes will impede application of a true trans-regional approach to “integrating” deterrence as U.S. national defense and security strategies call for.
Forgotten in America’s shift away from counterterrorism, the Central Region remains a core political and economic axis for the PRC’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to connect Asia to Europe. Beijing exploits access and influence opportunities along the BRI through economic statecraft with military implications—opened by perceptions of declining U.S. engagement and loss of credibility. Whether through “strategic fulcrums” like the United Arab Emirates or via states under massive debt distress like Tajikistan, the PRC can wield significant ideological, economic, and political power on the global stage. Today, we see the PRC increasing its role in regional peace, security, and diplomacy, while trade with the region has more than tripled over the past 20 years. As the world’s largest crude oil importer, the People’s Republic sources 46% of its oil from the Middle East. To wit—the PRC is truly beginning to “win the Middle East” at the expense of U.S. national security.
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