Michael Peck
As the Trump administration disrupts global politics, some fear that China might take advantage of the chaos to invade Taiwan.
But this raises a basic question: Why should China invade Taiwan now, when they can sit back and allow Trump to destroy a system that has protected Taiwan for 75 years?
There are some reports that an invasion will happen in a matter of months. The Trump administration has also cut back on support for Ukraine and may withdraw the U.S. from NATO. If America is reneging on these commitments, might not it also throw Taiwan to the tender mercies of Beijing?
However, Beijing doesn’t need to hurry. The strategic balance between China, versus Taiwan, America and America’s allies, seems likely to improve in Beijing’s favor over time. Trump’s tariffs have led to tensions with allies who might have supported a U.S.-led effort to defend Taiwan, including Japan, South Korea and Australia, as well as NATO nations.
Post-1945 U.S. security has rested upon an elaborate web of allies and bases that may have been expensive, but proved invaluable in containing the Soviet Union and China. With Taiwan a hundred miles from China, defending the island was always going to be a challenge. Antagonizing America’s traditional allies – as well as Vietnam and other Asian nations fearful of Chinese hegemony – only makes that task harder.
No comments:
Post a Comment