Holmes Liao
Andrew Marshall, the visionary founder of the now-disbanded Office of Net Assessment (ONA) in the Pentagon, once remarked, “The purpose of net assessment is to look at the big picture and to assess the long-term competition between states.” He believed that the essence of net assessment is to compare both sides’ strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and vulnerabilities to determine the most effective means of achieving national security objectives.
The recently released 2025 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) provides an overview of global security, reflecting the collective insights of the 18 intelligence agencies under the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The section on China — occupying a quarter of the report — states, “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) probably is making steady but uneven progress on capabilities it would use in an attempt to seize Taiwan and deter — and if necessary, defeat — U.S. military intervention.” The phrase “uneven progress” deserves deeper scrutiny, as it highlights China’s weaknesses and crucial opportunities for Taiwan to exploit.
For Taiwan, conducting a net assessment should inform its broader strategic planning and guide its procurement of military technologies, thereby enhancing the country’s ability to deter, disrupt, and defeat a Chinese invasion.
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