3 April 2025

Biden opened the door to missile proliferation. Trump should close it

Debak Das

In its final weeks in the White House, the Biden administration announced that it had updated the policy guidance for the implementation by the United States of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a multilateral export control effort that seeks to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology. Per the new guidance, the United States will now allow and facilitate support for transferring the regime’s category I items—including long-range ballistic missile systems, space launch vehicles, and unmanned aerial systems. According to President Biden’s National Security Memorandum on the MTCR, the policy change will enable the United States to transfer entire long-range cruise missiles and ballistic missile systems and their technology to its partners and allies who seek to build their own defense and missile capabilities.

A factsheet released by the White House on January 7 asserts that the new guidance will “advance nonproliferation goals and bolster allied defense capabilities.” But it will have the opposite effect.

Diluting the restrictions on the transfer of long-range nuclear-capable missile systems and space launch vehicles that can be modified to deliver nuclear weapons will weaken the non-proliferation regime and contribute to global missile proliferation. The nuclear non-proliferation order is already facing severe challenges, with several new countries threatening to develop nuclear weapons, missile arsenals proliferating in the Indo-Pacific region, and growing concerns about a new wave of nuclear proliferation being driven by the Trump administration’s abandonment of allies. The new missile transfer guidance will also set a precedent by which Russia and China might assume greater flexibility to dodge their MTCR commitments and spread ballistic missile technology.

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