Soňa Muzikárová
As we enter the second half of the 2020s, AI capabilities are increasingly becoming the key determinant of economic and military might. Hence, after years of ratcheting up US controls on exports of advanced semiconductors to China, the Biden administration, as one of its final acts in office, issued an “interim final rule” to establish a Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion. If this AI Diffusion Rule (as it is known) remains intact, the US inputs needed to develop frontier AI models will be accessible only to a tight circle of allies.
In fact, even most NATO and EU members would be sidelined from AI development – a prospect that ultimately could undermine America’s own strategic objectives. For example, Central and Eastern Europe – Europe’s industrial powerhouse – needs access to frontier AI chips to remain economically competitive and militarily secure over the next decade. Yet if America is no longer a reliable partner and supplier, the region’s economies could gravitate toward China.
Specifically, the AI Diffusion Rule creates a three-tiered hierarchy of access. The bottom tier comprises China, Russia, and the other usual suspects, which are effectively barred from the market. The most privileged tier comprises 18 trusted allies and trade partners, including the other members of the so-called Five Eyes – America’s intelligence-sharing alliance with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom – and Asian technology powerhouses such as Taiwan and South Korea.
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