4 April 2025

A glimpse into the black box of China’s policymaking process

Alexander Davey

Introduction

In recent years, China’s policymaking has become more opaque for outside observers. Tensions between China and the west have not only disrupted trade but also restricted the free flow of information, making it harder to trace Beijing’s domestic policy priorities. However, by carefully analyzing the structured rhythm of the CCP’s policymaking process, key signals still emerge, and these patterns reveal intent. This is essential to understanding China’s external behavior and formulating well-informed policy decisions in response.

Every year, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) draws thousands of legislators from across the country to Beijing, where they deliberate and vote on legislation. This year, Premier Li Qiang delivered the Government Work Report – looking back at 2024 and setting the policy direction and major tasks for 2025. The meeting provides a rare glimpse into a process often described as a “black box” – how China's top leadership signals its policy priorities to the bureaucrats who must carry them out.

Tracking key themes from the Third Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Central Committee in July 2024 to the NPC in March 2025 sheds light on how Beijing’s broad ambitions turn into concrete action – or where priorities fade. The plenum sets long-term strategic direction, while the NPC reveals nearer-term priorities. This eight-month window offers critical insight into policymaking processes, resource allocation, and the political trajectory shaping China’s next decade.


No comments: