Ben Barry, Jonty Kennon, Douglas Barrie, Nick Childs, James Hackett, Henry Boyd, Jonathan Bentham, Dzaky Naradichiantama & Michael Tong
The UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron recently announced their willingness to create a ‘coalition of the willing’ to safeguard a potential ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. A ‘reassurance’ or ‘deterrence’ force is a better frame for this discussion than a ‘peacekeeping force’, given that one of its tasks would be to respond to a potential Russian violation of a ceasefire agreement. Therefore, agreed response options in the event of a significant breach of a ceasefire would bolster the deterrent value of any deployment. Consequently, the force deployed would need to be credible to Moscow and the coalition resolved to act decisively in the event of a breach of the ceasefire.
The composition of such a force remains unclear, though both leaders have said a US ‘backstop’ is needed. This IISS analysis sets out three options for such a reassurance force and challenges that may be posed to their deployment:
- A small-scale force with a deployed land component of a brigade of about 10,000 troops, supported by a limited air component and naval assets;
- A medium-scale force based on a land component of a large division, with about 25,000 troops supported by larger air and maritime components; and
- A large-scale force centred on a corps-sized land component of between 60,000 and 100,000 troops, supported by substantial air and maritime elements.
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