Alexandra Chinchilla, Paul Poast, and Dan Reiter
When it comes to military force, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a starkly split stance. On the one hand, Trump is a self-professed skeptic of foreign entanglements. He has rapidly warmed relations with Russia in hopes of ending the war in Ukraine. His “America first” foreign policy is generally critical of military engagement abroad. And during the inaugural address, he said that his second presidency would be judged by “the wars we never get into.” On the other hand, Trump continuously flaunts American military might. His State Department declared that the United States would intervene if China attacked the territory, ships, or aircraft of the Philippines—a U.S. treaty ally. He has made flamboyant threats against Iran and North Korea. Since his election, Trump has also been bellicose toward U.S. friends, declaring that Canada “would make a great state” and that he would consider using the military to take Greenland and the Panama Canal.
On the surface, this combination of isolationism and belligerence might seem to reflect Trump’s general unpredictability, or even incoherence. The president, after all, is known for expressing views that contradict his broader stances. But it turns out that the American public is also quite willing to use force despite an apparent preference for withdrawal. The country has swung wildly in its hawkishness, from the isolationism of the 1930s to the belligerence of the early 1980s. But now, it has assumed a hedgehog-like posture, pulling back but still prickly. When asked whether they think Washington should play a larger or smaller role in the world, most Americans opt for a reduced footprint. But in a survey we conducted in July of ordinary Americans as well as of former U.S. policymakers, we found that clear majorities support attacking China if the People’s Liberation Army were to hit U.S. ships in the South China Sea. They were supportive irrespective of whether American troops were killed in the strikes. And the findings suggest that Americans would be willing to deploy U.S. troops against other U.S. adversaries, as well.
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