17 March 2025

Will the US collapse like the Soviet Union did? - Opinion

James Krapfl

“You’re next,” said a Russian historian I interviewed in 1993 about the Soviet Union’s collapse in late 1991. I was an American student in St Petersburg, and he was referring to the United States.

His argument was informed by a pseudo-scientific demographic theory that would eventually find favour in the Kremlin, but more remarkable to me then was the hopefulness with which he spoke.

If this man is still alive, he must be feeling vindicated. America’s current retreat from its engagements around the world — from gutting USAID to abandoning European allies — constitutes a surrender of power comparable in living memory only to Mikhail Gorbachev’s unilateral withdrawals from Afghanistan, Eastern Europe and elsewhere between 1988 and 1991 — right before the Soviet Union’s collapse.

Accompanying both foreign policy about-faces, we can’t miss profound shifts in the two states’ ideological foundations.

Destabilizing master signifiers

Gorbachev justified his “restructuring” or perestroika by invoking the Soviet Union’s founding father, Vladimir Lenin. He did so, however, by observing that the historical Lenin had pragmatically modified policies according to circumstances. That called into question the mythological Lenin — an infallible hero whose virtues could not be questioned.

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