Hy Rothstein
The way the war in Ukraine ends matters. The seeds for future Russian aggression will be planted if Putin’s war results in advancing Russia’s conception of security. It is also important to remember that the war is not simply a war between Russia and Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accurately said that the West is engaged in a proxy war with his country. Though the US has not put boots on the ground, words and deeds have made the war in Ukraine America’s war too. The war is Russia against the West. Any settlement that rewards Russian aggression is a defeat for the West. The United States will not be spared another defeat by switching sides. Doing so will amplify the defeat.
Any settlement must consider that Putin has ruled out territorial concessions and demands that Kyiv abandon its NATO membership ambitions. The Russian president wants to limit the size and power of Kyiv’s military, ensure the country’s permanent neutrality and control the direction of its political future. Putin has also argued the people of the two countries share a common history and identity and Ukraine had been unjustly severed from Russia through the work of anti-Russian forces and must be reunified. For Putin, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is about correcting an event 30 years ago that he believes never should have taken place. A just outcome seems elusive.
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