Can Kasapoğlu
1. Battlefield Assessment
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have withdrawn from Sudzha, a town in the Russian region of Kursk. Thus far no open-source intelligence has indicated that Russian or North Korean units have enveloped Ukrainian formations. Still, this makes sustaining a presence in Kursk even more difficult for Ukraine.
A joint offensive by North Korean and Russian combat formations repelled Ukraine’s incursion. Evidence shows that fighters from the former Wagnerprivate military company also played a role in the Russian offensive. As Russian and North Korean troops breached Ukraine’s lines of defense, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited the Russian military headquarters for the Kursk region. After months of downplaying the significance of Ukraine’s incursion, the Kremlin capitalized on the moment to emphasize this operation as an important success.
Beyond being a defeat in the ongoing war for the narrative, losing Kursk could have three major consequences for Ukraine. First, with ceasefire negotiations looming, the loss would deprive Ukraine of precious diplomatic leverage in a territory swap. Second, removing Ukraine from Kursk could allow the Russian military to move the tens of thousands of troops it has fielded there to other fronts. Third, the loss of Kursk increases the likelihood that the Kremlin could invade Ukraine’s neighboring Sumy Oblast.
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